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Senior Fantasy Football Expert Shawn Childs breaks down and forecasts the top players from the biggest colleges in the nation! In this edition, he takes a look at Russell Wilson, Melvin Gordon and many more of your favorite Wisconsin players! Stay tuned for more College Football Player Breakdowns!
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QB Russell Wilson – In 2017, Wilson was the best QB in the land. His top ranking came via a rebound in his value in the run game (95/586/3) while matching his career high in passing TDs (34). His completion rate (61.3) is trending backward after peaking in 2015 (68.1). Russell set a career high in pass attempts (553), which still ranks only about league average per game (34.6). Over the last three years, Wilson improved his floor to about 4,500 combined yards with two special seasons in combined TDs (2015 – 35 and 2017 – 37). He enters 2018 with a drop down at TE, which should be offset by the addition of WR Brandon Marshall. I expect better success in the run game, which will help lower the sack total and improve Russell’s ability to get the ball downfield. Wilson is a great player who makes the players around him better. His upside is 5,000 combined yards with 35+ TDs, but it would require Marshall to play at a high-level. I’m going to set his bar at his recent success (4,500 combined yards with 30+ TDs) while understanding a weaker defense will force him to throw the ball more late in games when trailing on the scoreboard.
RB Melvin Gordon – For the first time in his career, Gordon played 16 games. He finished with a career-high 344 touches for 1,560 combined yards with 12 TDs and 58 catches. As great as his season looked, the Chargers gave a piece of his pie to Austin Ekeler mid-season leading to some lost TDs (5) and catches (27). In the end, Melvin may have lost about ten percent of his potential opportunity to Ekeler. With same RB structure in LA, Gordon will again have a slight thorn in his side thus creating a step back in draft value. Melvin has the talent to be an elite three-down back, and he did play through some injuries last year. Gordon needs the Chargers’ offensive line to be much better in run blocking (3.8 yards per rush in 2017). LA should move closer to league average running the ball this year, and I do expect better play on the offensive line. Melvin has never gained over 3.9 yards per carry for a season in his three years in the NFL. Possible 350+ touches for 1,600+ yards with double-digit TDs and 50+ catches. Nice steady RB1 who can’t match the explosiveness of the top RBs in the game over a full season.
RB James White – With Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis on the roster in 2017, White had a tougher time getting snaps. In 2016, the Patriots had him on the field for 427 plays while that number dropped to 384 last year. James will have low chances on early downs (2016 – 39/166 and 2017 – 43/171) while battling Burkhead for targets in the passing game. As I mention in the Sony Michel profile, the Patriots are one of the top teams in the league throwing to RBs. White has 116 combined catches for 980 yards and eight TDs on 158 targets over the last two seasons. Game score dictates his opportunity, which makes James more of a bye week cover than a week-to-week play in PPR leagues. Last season he missed the last two games of the regular season with an ankle issue. Something in the range of 50 catches for 600 combined yards and a chance at a handful of TDs seems like a fair evaluation.
RB Corey Clement – As a part-time player buried on the depth chart, Clement gained 444 combined yards with six TDs and ten catches in his rookie season after signing with the Eagles as an undrafted free agent. His best game in the regular season came in Week 9 (67 combined yards with three TDs and one catch. Corey came up big as well in the Super Bowl (108 combined yards with one TD and three catches). Sneaky backup player in 2018 as he could be one injury away from a top 20 opportunity.
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