Week 9 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays
This article is contributed by Brad Kruse
This column is NOT intended to provide Week 9 Waiver Wire picks. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players, but I will try not to focus on the obvious choices for this week’s slate of games as that is covered elsewhere on the sight. My goal with Week 9 Sleepers & Emerging Players is to help look around corners for the season which might give some ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster.
As we enter week 9, the playoffs are starting to close in. Some teams are finding themselves mathematically out of it, others need to make some aggressive moves to get into the playoffs. Others are positioning themselves for the playoffs.
This week I’ll focus exclusively on the young receivers and review how they’ve performed using targets per route run and yards per route run metrics.
Young Breakout Receivers
The above table looks at all first and second-year WRs who have at least a 15% targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.5 Yards per route run (YPRR) through eight weeks this year. Below are some comments on players who stood out in Week 8.
Second-Year Players
Josh Downs: Downs is averaging 17.7 ppg without Anthony Richardson this year and 12.7 ppg with Richardson as his starting QB. For at least Week 9, Downs gets Joe Flacco under center. With a 31% TPRR and over 2.0 yards per route run, he’s a must-start this week.
Tank Dell: Dell caught all four of his targets for 35 yards and a touchdown this week. Nico Collins is on track to return, by the latest reports, in Week 9. Stefon Diggs also suffered a torn ACL ending his season. Dell’s targets should pick up going forward, and he should be getting healthier coming off his off-season surgery. There’s hope we could see a return to his 2023 form and hopefully longer aDOT. But, for now, he’s a flex play in good matchups.
Demario Douglas: Douglas played limited snaps in Week 7 due to his illness and followed that up with an unproductive Week 8 while having his starting quarterback be knocked out of the game. Douglas is a borderline waiting for more consistency to develop.
Cedric Tillman: Tillman is coming onto the scene after the trade of Amari Cooper. Over the last two weeks, Tillman only trails Jerry Jeudy in route participation but leads all Browns pass catchers in targets, yards, and touchdowns. His targets per route run of 26% and Yards per route run of 2.22 would qualify him in the top category of the table above had he been able to perform to that level all season. But, with his new role, he projects to be a key piece in this offense with Jameis Winston at the helm.
Rookies
Jordan Whittington: Whittington has been productive in the brief stint without both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the lineup; however, they are both back so Whittington is only a stash play hoping for an opportunity.
Ladd McConkey: McConkey had a huge game this past week with six receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns. McConkey has had at least six targets in the last in all games but one this year. This is the first week he broke 67 yards receiving and found the end zone multiple times. He’s now averaging 13.1 points per game. He’s a flex consideration play going forward.
Devaughn Vele: Vele’s targets have dropped to three targets in each of the last two games after collecting 14 in his first two games. He’s probably on the outside looking in with his declining participation combined with his low draft capital.
Adonai Mitchell: Mitchell gets some recognition this week due to the change at quarterback. Mitchell’s impressive 36% targets per route run this year is impressive. His low catch percentage contributes to his sub-standard 1.4 yards per route run. For the year, Mitchell has only caught about 25% of his targets from Richardson. This increases to 55% under Flacco. He’s a risky start any given week, but his prospects increase with Flacco under center.
Xavier Legette: With Diontae Johnson traded, each of the receivers on the team move up the pecking order. Legette, Carolina’s first-round draft in 2024, would seem to benefit. He is not likely to be a huge difference maker in the Panther’s offense, but his 21% targets per route run and catching touchdowns in successive weeks could lead to playable weeks for this rookie receiver.
