2025 NFL Week 10 Circa Survivor Recap
Trusting Carolina In Role of Favorite Proves Costly
After their 17-7 loss to New Orleans, the Panthers are now 0-11 SU/ATS as a favorite – Picks, Results, and Strategy Insights
Written by Frank Taddeo — @RespectedMoney on X
Stop me if you have heard this before: “two of the top five most selected teams were upset, wiping out a major percentage of the pool.”
In Week 10, 751 entrants witnessed their dream of winning the $18.7 million prize in Circa Survivor dashed, when Carolina and Buffalo were shockingly upset.
The Panthers, who closed as 6-point home favorites against the Saints, were the most chosen team (490) selected in the pool.
Wildly, Carolina continues to make betting history this season.
Heading into Sunday, the Panthers were just the second NFL team since 1970 to have a winning record through nine games despite being an underdog in every game, per CBS Sports Research.
Well in Week 10, oddsmakers installed them as favorites, a role they rarely encounter. After their 17-7 loss to New Orleans, the Panthers are now 0-11 SU/ATS as a favorite (last winning Sept. 23, 2021, vs Houston, 24-9).
Panthers fall to 0-11 SU/ATS as favorites after 17-7 loss to Saints.
— My Sports Update (@MySportsUpdate) November 9, 2025
While Carolina was knocking out 27.7% of those still alive, the Dolphins were serving up a shocking 30-13 win over Buffalo as 9-point home underdogs. Miami, who headed into the AFC East tilt losing seven consecutive meetings with the division foe, were led by 225 total yards and two touchdowns by star RB De’Von Achane. The Bills, fresh off an impressive 28-21 win over Kansas City, eliminated 261 contestants (14.8%) who backed them.
Dolphins stun Bills 30-13! De’Von Achane 225 total yards & 2 TDs.
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 9, 2025
Circa Survivor, which drew a record-breaking $18,718,000 prize pool this year, does not require the need to cover any point spread. However, simply picking straight-up winners in the NFL is not so easy as 17,718 (94.6%) contestants are now out prior to the start of Week 11, leaving only 1,000 entries (5%) alive in their quest for the life-changing win.
Circa Survivor Update: Only 1,000 entries remain after Week 10 carnage!
— Survivor Sweat (@SurvivorSweat) November 10, 2025
Heading into Monday Night Football, favorites are 9-4 Straight-up (SU) and 6-6-1 Against the Spread (ATS). Overall, favorites maintain a sizable 99-45-1 SU (3 pick-ems) mark, while also holding a 76-68-1 ATS (52.8%) advantage. Home teams hold a 79-62-1 SU (55.8%) advantage with 6 neutral-site International games, while also owning the more coveted 68-62 ATS (56%) edge. Higher scoring games than expected by the experts in the desert resulted in Overs posting a 7-5 mark. Overs now hold 78-68-2 (53.4%) edge on the year.
The Circa Survivor contest is a grueling contest which forces entrants to pick one winner every week, with no spread with one pivotal caveat. Entrants CAN NOT use the same team more than once during the course of the season. Circa Survivor, which requires a $1,000 entry fee, will once again be a massive sweat for those who run deep into the season due to the massive winner-take-all prize pool.
In an early look-ahead to Week 11, it is expected that: New England (-10) vs NY Jets, Green Bay (-8) at NY Giants, Houston (-7) at Tennessee and Baltimore (-8.5) at Cleveland – will be among the most heavily chosen teams in the contest.
Circa Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, home to the prestigious Fantasy Football World Championship, continues to deliver world-class content from the best players to help fans win and stay informed. Stay tuned for more expert insights as the season unfolds!
Favorites YTD: 99-45-1 SU · 76-68-1 ATS (52.8%)
Home Teams YTD: 79-62-1 SU · 68-62 ATS (56%)
O/U YTD: 78-68-2 (53.4%)
