2025 NFL Week 9 Circa Survivor Recap: Massive Road Underdog Upset Crushes Pool, Only 9% Survive Epic Two-TD Shocker
Home Losses By Packers and Lions Results In 280 Eliminations – Picks, Results, and Strategy Insights
Written by Frank Taddeo, @RespectedMoney on X
Circa Survivor entrants encountered a second consecutive week of chaos, as two of the top five most selected teams were upset, wiping out 20.5% of the pool that headed into Week 9 with dreams of winning the $18.7 million prize.
Green Bay and Detroit, who closed as 13.5-point and 9.5-point home favorites, failed to take care of business, eliminating 279 competitors alone when Carolina and Minnesota shocked the NFL world.
Carolina, who continue to defy the odds this season, pulled off the biggest upset in the NFL this season, defeating the Packers, 16-13 at Lambeau Field. Per CBS Sports Research, the Panthers are just the second NFL team since 1970 to have a winning record through nine games despite being an underdog in every game.
The Panthers, who were +700 on the moneyline to Straight-Up, were the third-most faded team in the contest as 264 entrants backed a Packers squad oddsmakers installed as -1350 home favorites.
Panthers stun Packers 16-13! Biggest upset of 2025 — +700 moneyline cashers rejoice.
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSports) November 2, 2025
While Carolina was pulling off their stunner, the other major upset of the week came courtesy of JJ McCarthy and the 9.5-point underdog Vikings beating the Lions on the road, 27-24. Minnesota, who headed into the showdown 1-3 over their last four games, were sparked by the return of their second-year quarterback who threw two scores and added one on the ground. The Vikings were able to completely shut down Jahmyr Gibbs, holding fantasy football’s overall RB6 in PPR formats, to by far his worst production of the season (25 rushing and 3 receiving yards).
Vikings upset Lions 27-24! JJ McCarthy’s 3 TDs seal road victory.
— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2025
Circa Survivor, which drew a record-breaking $18,718,000 million prize pool this year, does not require the need to cover any point spread. However, simply picking the straight-up winner is simply not so easy as 16,948 (90.5%) contestants are out prior to the start of Week 10 after losing a total of 288, leaving only a total of 1,769 entries (9.5%) alive in their quest for the life-changing win.
Circa Survivor Update: Only 1,769 entries (9.5%) remain after Week 9’s upsets!
— Survivor Sweat (@SurvivorSweat) November 3, 2025
Favorites held steady overall on the week finishing with a 8-6 Straight-up (SU) and Against the Spread (ATS) (57.1%). Overall, favorites maintain a sizable 90-41-1 SU (3 pick-ems) mark, while also holding a 70-62 ATS (53%) advantage. Home teams hold a 72-57-1 SU (55.8%) advantage with 5 neutral-site International games, while also owning the more coveted 68-62 ATS (52.3%) edge. Lower scoring games than expected by the experts in the desert resulted in Unders posting a 8-6 mark. Overs now hold 71-62-2 (53.4%) edge on the year.
The Circa Survivor contest is a grueling contest which forces entrants to pick one winner every week, with no spread with one pivotal caveat. Entrants CAN NOT use the same team more than once during the course of the season. Circa Survivor, which requires a $1,000 entry fee, will once again be a massive sweat for those who run deep into the season due to the massive winner-take-all prize pool.
In an early look-ahead to Week 10 it is expected that: Buffalo (-9.5) at Miami, Detroit (-9) at Washington, Denver (-8.5) vs Las Vegas, Seattle (-7) vs Arizona and Detroit (-8.5) vs Minnesota – will be among the most heavily chosen teams in the contest.
Circa Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, home to the prestigious Fantasy Football World Championship, continues to deliver world-class content from the best players to help fans win and stay informed. Stay tuned for more expert insights as the season unfolds!
