Frank Taddeo Breaks Down the $18.7M Contest’s Mild Opening Week
Written by Frank Taddeo, Las Vegas resident, long-time successful handicapper, and high-stakes fantasy winner at the Circa Fantasy Football World Championship.
Favorites and low-scoring games dominated the NFL landscape in the opening week of the 2025 season. The slate, which kicked off on Thursday, saw favorites finish 12-3 straight-up (SU), with only one moderate upset impacting the Circa Survivor contest. This mild Week 1 allowed an impressive 97.3% of entrants to advance, setting the stage for an intense battle ahead in this legendary $18.7 million guaranteed prize pool contest.
For the 1,811 entries (9.7%) who backed the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles in the season-opener against Dallas, the victory came with a serious sweat. The Cowboys nearly pulled off an upset on Broad Street, falling just short with a 24-20 loss. Philadelphia, the third-most selected team, survived the scare.
The top pick, however, was Bo Nix and the Broncos, chosen by 7,173 entries (38.4%) to beat Tennessee at home. Despite covering as 8.5-point underdogs, the Titans fell just short of the week’s biggest upset. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, heavily supported with 4,171 picks (22.3%), held a 17-10 lead late in the first half and secured a 20-13 road win over the Saints.
Circa Survivor, boasting a record-breaking $18,718,000 prize pool with 18,718 entries, proved relatively predictable in Week 1 due to the absence of a point spread requirement.
The Bears fall to the Vikings at Soldier Field, clipping another 55 entries and bringing Week 1 to a close.
573 entries total have been eliminated with 18,145 remaining. Onto Week 2!#CircaSurvivor pic.twitter.com/4gX5WBPmyo
— Survivor Sweat (@SurvivorSweat) September 9, 2025
The only significant knockout came from the Raiders’ 20-13 road upset over the Patriots, eliminating 269 entries (1.9%). Overall, a modest 573 entries (3.0%) were eliminated, highlighting the week’s lack of chaos.
Favorites finished with a slight 9-7 against the spread (ATS) mark (one pick’em: TB vs. ATL), while home teams held an early 8-7 SU and 9-6 ATS edge (60.0%) with one neutral-site game (KC vs. LAC in Brazil). “Under-takers” also cashed in, with lower-than-expected totals finishing 12-4 (75%) versus posted lines, boosting NFL betting bankrolls.
This grueling contest challenges entrants to pick one winner weekly without repeating teams throughout the season, a pivotal rule that adds strategy to the $1,000 entry fee challenge. With a massive winner-take-all prize pool, the sweat intensifies for those advancing deep into the season.
Looking ahead to Week 2, expect heavy selections on Baltimore (-12.5) vs. Cleveland, Buffalo (-7) at NY Jets, Arizona (-7) vs. Carolina, San Francisco (-6.5) at New Orleans, Dallas (-6.5) vs. NY Giants, and LA Rams (-6) at Tennessee. These matchups could shape the contest’s early narrative.
Circa Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, home to the prestigious Fantasy Football World Championship, continues to deliver world-class content from the best players to help fans win and stay informed. Stay tuned for more expert insights as the season unfolds!
Follow the latest updates on X: @SurvivorSweat
