Sunday Playoff Preview
The 6-game NFL Wild Card Weekend continues Sunday with a full day of games. FullTime Fantasy‘s Sunday Playoff Preview breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective.
And just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean the fun is over. FFWC Playoff Fantasy Football is a great way to extend the fantasy fun and win amazing prizes!
Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Time: 1:00 Eastern
Line: Bills -8
Total: 47.5
Money Line: Denver +375, Buffalo -465
Broncos Offense
Sean Payton’s offense made huge strides in 2024. Most of that can be attributed to landing Bo Nix in the 2024 NFL Draft. Nix proved to be the perfect fit in Payton’s short-passing attack. The results were the Broncos’ first post-season appearance in eight seasons. However, as eight-point dogs, the run could be brief. Per ESPN, rookie QBs are 0-5 in road playoff games over the last 10 seasons.
Speaking of Bo Nix, the matchup is neutral. However, the atmosphere will be inhospitable. Buffalo allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, allowing 28 TD passes and an additional 263/2 on the ground. Nix has the athleticism to escape the pocket against a subpar pass rush, but questions remain about Denver’s supporting cast.
Denver employs a full-on committee backfield that is fantasy-unfriendly. Our RDA* projections favor Jaleel McLaughlin to lead the way in touches. However, in a game where the Broncos are 8-point underdogs, McLaughlin and Javonte Williams will be involved as receivers. Rookie Audric Estime came on down the stretch and has a 34% chance of punching in a short-yardage score per our Week 19 rankings.
The Bills excel at shutting down slot receivers and are vulnerable on the outside. That favors Courtland Sutton (17% slot rate) well. Sutton (81/1081/8) posted WR15 numbers this season and remains a solid Week 19 start in a game with a positive game script.
Marvin Mims became a bigger factor in Denver’s offense as the season developed. Mims is Payton’s big-play threat who can make an impact downfield, out of the backfield, and as a returner. Our RDA* projections like Mims this week. However, slot receiver Devaughn Vele is a fade.
Also, fantasy footballers should avoid Denver’s messy tight-end rotation. Payton will use Lucas Krull, Adam Trautman, and Nate Adkins indiscriminately. Additionally, Buffalo allowed just five touchdowns to opposing tight ends all season.
Bills Offense
Josh Allen is 4-1 in the Wild Card round. And as a sizable home favorite, Allen and the Bills were 6-2 against the spread at home this season. Although Denver’s defense ranks as a top-10 unit against opposing quarterbacks, they allowed an enemy QB to surpass 25 fantasy points in three of their final five games. Therefore, Allen remains the top signal-caller to target in Fantasy Playoff Drafts.
RB James Cook was tied for the NFL lead with a Buffalo team-record 16 rushing scores. Conversely, Denver allowed 13 total scores to backs in 17 games. Our RDA* projections have Cook as the RB4 in this slate, with a 65-percent chance of finding the end zone.
Ray Davis and Ty Johnson will fill in behind Cook. Johnson offers more pass-catching upside, while Davis will see 5-10 carries. Both have some DFS appeal.
Khalil Shakir ran 75% of his routes out of the slot, so he’ll mostly avoid Denver CB Pat Surtain. However, Shakir still has a subpar matchup against Denver slot CB Ja’Quan McMillian. Surtain could potentially shadow Keon Coleman, seriously hampering the rookie’s appeal.
Additionally, Amari Cooper has been a non-factor in multiple games and missed practice time due to personal reasons.
If the Broncos can contain Buffalo’s wideouts, the tight ends stand to benefit. Dalton Kincaid is our No. 3 tight end in PPR scoring. Also, teammate Dawson Knox has some DFS appeal.
I think Denver can hang around in this game, which will benefit the offense.
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia (14-3)
Time: 4:30 Eastern
Line: Eagles -5
Total: 45.5
Money Line: Packers +200, Eagles -240
Packers Offense
Game No. 2 is projected to be closer but lower scoring. This is a rematch of a Week 1 contest that Philadelphia won 34-29. The Eagles have won three straight against Green Bay, scoring over 30 points in each contest. There were some questions about the health of both quarterbacks. However, both signal-callers will start.
Speaking of Jordan Love, his passing yardage prop is 222.5 yards, and a big lean (-149) on the UNDER 1.5 touchdown passes. Love threw for 260 with a pair of TD strikes in Week 1. However, this is a different Philly defense. The Eagles allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers, putting Love near the bottom of our Week 19 quarterbacks.
Expect RB Josh Jacobs to get plenty of touches as a runner and receiver. Jacobs had 18 touches for 104 scrimmage yards versus Philly in Week 1. Our RDA* projections see a similar result with a roughly 70-percent shot at hitting pay dirt.
Things are more difficult to project for the passing attack.
Christian Watson tore his ACL last week and will miss the rest of this season. Subsequently, Jayden Reed is Green Bay’s unquestioned No. 1 wideout. Reed was huge in Week 1, snagging four balls for 138 yards and a score. However, he’s cooled off. Reed hasn’t surpassed 100 yards since Week 9 and has failed to score in his last five.
Romeo Doubs is the next man up. Doubs scored nine fantasy points in the season-opening loss to Philadelphia. However, Doubs is a streaky player, with two touchdowns in two games and single-digit PPR points in eight others. Dontayvion Wicks will move up to the WR3 role, giving him some sleeper appeal.
No team allowed fewer receiving yards to tight ends (591) than Philadelphia, so it’s a sub-optimal situation for Tucker Kraft. And our RDA* projections agree, projecting Kraft to score an innocuous 6.2 fantasy points.
Eagles Offense
Jalen Hurts cleared the NFL concussion protocol and practiced in full. After sitting out Week 18, Hurts has a tough matchup against a Green Bay defense that ranked inside the top-5 in terms of limiting fantasy points to QBs. Back in Week 1, Hurts threw for 278 yards with a pair of scores and picks. However, he rushed for just 33 scoreless yards. Fewer passing yards with an increased chance of a Tush Push assures Hurts remains a Tier-1 starter in Week 19.
RB Saquon Barkley has a scrimmage yardage prop of 119.5 yards and is listed as -179 to score a touchdown. Barkley opened the season with 132 all-purpose yards with three scores. We can’t bank on a repeat of those gaudy numbers, but Barkley remains an elite play.
Top Green Bay CB Jaire Alexander is on IR. That’s good news for A.J. Brown. However, Brown still popped in the previous game, snagging five balls for 119 yards and a score. Our RDA* projections think Brown will be closer to 84 yards with a 56% chance of another TD.
DeVonta Smith’s back tightened up on Friday but he is expected to play. If Smith is limited, Jahan Dotson would see an increased role.
At tight end, Dallas Goedert will return to the lineup. Green Bay is slightly below average defending the position, so Goedert has some fantasy and daily appeal as a mid-range TE1.
The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games and went 8-1 straight up at Lincoln Financial Field.
Washington Commanders (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Time: 8:00 Eastern
Line: Buccaneers -3
Total: 47.5
Money Line: Commanders +136, Bucs -156
Commanders Offense
What a difference a year makes. It’s almost like completely revamping culture from ownership down can make an immediate impact. Dan Quinn has done a terrific job in Washington. However, hitting on a superstar signal-caller was vital.
Jayden Daniels was a revelation in Year One. The No. 2 pick guided the Commanders to their most wins in 33(!) years. And the chances of earning win No. 13 look promising. Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including 354 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. Big thumbs up for Daniels in Week 19 slates.
After a month-long stint on IR, Austin Ekeler returned in Week 18. He’ll mix in with Brian Robinson to give Washington a pair of solid fantasy options out of the backfield. But as bad as Tampa’s secondary was, the Bucs were solid against running backs. Some of that was game-script-related, but we view this as a neutral matchup for B-Rob and Ekeler.
Tampa Bay also allowed 36.1 PPR points per game to wide receivers. That puts Terry McLaurin in line to post excellent numbers. Back in Week 1, Washington defeated the Bucs 37-20 but McLaurin was held to just 17 yards on two grabs. However, he would go on to develop a superlative chemistry with Daniels and post overall WR5 numbers in 2024.
After McLaurin things get dicey.
Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder, and Dyami Brown are Washington’s ancillary options. However, they are inconsistent producers who should be viewed only as DFS dart throws. Subsequently, fantasy managers should look to the tight end for another Commanders’ pass-catching weapon.
Zach Ertz is Washington’s No. 2 pass-catcher. And our RDA* projections love the matchup against a Bucs’ defense that surrendered 14.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Buccaneers Offense
Before the season started, I was wary of Tampa Bay regressing after losing offensive coordinator Dave Canales to Carolina. However, Lian Cohen did a masterful job as his replacement, earning himself potential head-coaching interviews in this coaching cycle.
Additionally, Baker Mayfield played the best ball of his career, throwing for a career-high 4,500 yards and 41 scores. As expected, Washington’s defense made huge improvements with an influx of young talent and Dan Quinn leading the way. The Commanders only surrendered 24 touchdown passes all season, which was 12th best and 15 fewer than 2023. Mayfield tends to play lights out at home and the total of 47.5 points looks inviting.
Bucky Irving was an RB1 down the stretch, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game in Tampa’s final five. Our RDA* projections have his slightly higher than that against a Washington D that ceded the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs.
We also have some interest in Rachaad White, who has the pass-catching prowess to make a fantasy impact in a contest with a fantasy-friendly script with the Bucs projected to score 26.75 points- second-most in the slate.
Mike Evans is Tampa’s unquestioned top dog and Jalen McMillian came on in the last month of the season. However, the matchup isn’t as great as we’re used to seeing out of a Washington defense that was greatly improved in 2024. Still, our projections like the Buccaneers quite a bit.
Cade Otton is expected to return at tight end but hasn’t suited up since Week 15.
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