MiWeek 7 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays
This article is contributed by Brad Kruse
This column is NOT intended to provide Week 7 waiver claims lists. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players with my Week 7 Sleepers.
My goal is to help look around corners for the season which might give some ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster. 2024 has been a bit of a rollercoaster with all the injuries and enticing flashes of many rookies.
Young Running Backs and Their Opportunity Status
Chase Brown: Brown again out-performed Zach Moss on the ground in Week 6. Perhaps his higher usage was due to a Moss fumble; yet Brown also fumbled the ball. Brown had 10 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown in this game. Moss only logged six carries for 13 yards without finding the endzone. Brown also out-targeted Moss 2:1. Brown is separating himself from Moss in this offense.
Braelon Allen: The Jets’ rushing attack looked better last night. However, one of the wrinkles to the changes the Jets made on offense was to increase Hall’s snaps compared with Allen. Allen only ended up with three carries and two targets without a catch. Allen did have a touchdown called back due to a holding penalty, unfortunately.
Roschon Johnson: Johnson continued in his role as a third-down back and short-yardage back. Johnson did collect two catches on three targets this week for 25 yards. But no touchdowns on his five-carry eight-yard ground performance. His ceiling performances are low with Swift dominating the action on the ground and through the air. But, Johnson does have good contingent value as the likely lead RB if Swift were to miss time.
Jaylen Wright: Miami returns from BYE in Week 7 with each of their running backs healthy. This will be a test to see if Wright has moved up the depth chart. He started the year as a healthy scratch, but he’s taken advantage of his opportunities over the last four weeks to turn in 29 carries for 139 scoreless yards. That’s a solid 4.79 yards per carry. If he can split the work with Achane and not cede too much work to Mostert, he could become playable and still have strong contingent value if Achane were to miss more time this year. Wright is one of the better backup running backs to own going forward.
Tank Bigsby: Bigsby is playing great this year. Bigsby’s hot streak took a somewhat surprising step back in Week 6. Etienne went down with an injury, yet D’Ernest Johnson led the way in action from the running back position. As I alluded to a couple of weeks ago, this was likely game script-dependent. The Jaguars fall behind and Johnson picks up the passing down action with Etienne out of the game. Bigsby should lead in normal and positive game scripts while Etienne recovers from his injury.
Bucky Irving: Irving stepped in for White in Week 6 matchup with the Saints. He continued to run well gaining 81 yards on 14 carries (5.8 yards/carry) including a touchdown. He also collected two catches for 24 yards. The surprise was that Sean Tucker, running as the RB2 for the week split carries and gained 136 yards on 14 carries (9.7 yards/carry) including a touchdown, and caught three balls for 56 yards and another touchdown.
Tucker was a draft sleeper last season after falling out of the draft with a heart condition. He was eventually cleared and signed with Tampa Bay but failed to make a significant impact. Irving quickly supplanted him as the RB2 this year. But, Tucker put on a show and the coach has indicated he deserves a role in this offense. Let’s hope this doesn’t dissolve into a three-way committee once White returns. But there appear to be two young RBs who you could play in lineups in Week 7 vs Baltimore.
Ray Davis: Monday night we saw a head fake with James Cook shifting from expected to play to OUT. It was then talked about how Ty Johnson would have some sort of revenge game vs the Jets who had previously cut him. Taylor even got the first carry, but Davis then picked up most of the action gaining 97 yards on 20 rushes, and led the Bills with 55 receiving yards on his three receptions. Davis showed he belongs in this offense, and it will be interesting to see if he can carve out a strong enough role once Cook returns.
Young Breakout Receivers
Second Year Players
Jayden Reed: Week 6 saw Reed run 60% of the routes with Doubs’ and Watson’s return. He collected six receptions for 28 scoreless yards and a touchdown. This was somewhat of a muted output for Reed, but he continues to be the focal point of the offense.
Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks did not deliver on his promise in Week 6. He only ran 17% of the routes before succumbing to injury. He did get a surprising 50% target per route run for a sub-optimal 1.50 yards per route run. Wicks is reportedly week to week so you may have to be a pit patient to see if he’ll re-emerge onto the fantasy landscape.
Zay Flowers: Flowers was featured in Week 6 running 97% of the team’s routes and earning a 31% targets per route run metric while delivering 4.55 yards per route run. For the week, Flowers delivered nine catches for 132 scoreless yards. Another solid fantasy day for Flowers. Flowers is having a secondary breakout season in his sophomore campaign.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: JSN continues to float around the start line in dual flex leagues. He secured 21% targets per route run while running 81% of the routes. His 1.23 yards per route run was unencouraging. His fantasy day of five receptions for 53 yards and no touchdowns on nine targets gives fantasy managers an empty feeling.
Josh Downs: Downs flourished again with Joe Flacco under center. Downs ran 74% of the routes and earned a 31% target per route run with a strong 2.28 yards per route run. This resulted in a seven-catch 66-yard, one-touchdown performance. When the passing offense is merely competent, Downs looks like one of the stronger beneficiaries.
Demario Douglas: Douglas is the early winner of the switch to Drake Maye at quarterback. Despite Douglas running only 64% of the routes, he earned a 30% target per route run and 3.41 yards per route run. This resulted in six receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. Maye looked good and seemed to energize the offense. A lot will evolve over the next several weeks, but Douglas should be a part of the attack.
Keyshon Boutte: Boutte makes his debut in this column with a surprising performance in Week 6. With Drake Maye under center, Boutee ran 76% of the routes. He earned a nine percent target per route run and 1.84 yards per route run metric. But, his fantasy day delivered with three receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown on three targets. It’s unclear how repeatable this low target share performance will be, but it could be a solid first step.
Tank Dell: Playing without Nico Collins, Dell participated in a team-high 91% of routes and earned 28.1% targets per route run. He added 1.79 yards per route run on his way to a seven-catch 57-yard, one-touchdown performance on nine targets. This wasn’t the kind of game we saw from him last year where he would consistently get open deep. But hopefully, he keeps involved enough during Collins’ IR stint to provide confidence to play him in hopes of the bigger fantasy days.
Devaughn Vele: Vele splashed onto the scene with eight receptions Week 1, only to be inactive in the subsequent weeks. In Week 6, Vele returned. Vele ran 66% of the routes and earned 19% targets per route run (team-high) and 2.89 yards per route run (team-high). Overall, Vele secured four catches for 78 scoreless yards. It was a usable fantasy performance, but without the touchdown, he likely doesn’t garner much attention from fantasy managers. He and Franklin roughly tied for second on the team in routes.
Rookies
Malik Nabers: Nabers was still recovering from the concussion that knocked him out of Week 4. Fantasy managers are hoping for his healthy return in Week 7.
Marvin Harrison Jr.: Harrison was knocked out of the game this week with a concussion early.
Brian Thomas Jr.: Thomas was held in check by Chicago’s tough pass defense. He ran 77% of the team’s routes but only earned a 16.7% target per route run on his way to a three-catch 27-yard performance.
Ladd McConkey: The Chargers returned from their BYE and McConkey is heavily involved in their low-volume passing game. McConkey ran 79% of the routes and earned 23% targets per route run on his way to a four-catch 43-yard performance. The low-volume attack will limit McConkey weekly, but he does have a quarterback who could support a stronger passing game once the team’s offense evolves.
Adonai Mitchell: Mitchell is an enigma. He wound up with a meager two-reception nine-yard performance. Mitchell also participated in only 23% of the routes but had a strong 44% target per route run. He appears to be a great separator and target earner but needs to climb the depth chart and convert these targets into receptions.
Ja’Lynn Polk: Polks’ Week 6 was largely disappointing. The underlying metrics of 66.7% route participation, and 11% targets per route run led to only one catch for four yards. Polk was one of only four receivers who played in the game. He needs to demonstrate more chemistry with Maye to unlock him as a fantasy asset. But, the team is likely experimenting with the right personnel groupings to optimize what they can do with Maye which leaves Polk vulnerable in the short term.
Young Tight Ends
Brock Bowers: In Week 6, Bowers continued to demonstrate he is one of the elite tight ends in the league already. He collected nine receptions on 11 targets for 71 yards. The Raiders have a young asset to build their offense around.
Tucker Kraft: Kraft was not helpful to fantasy owners in Week 6. He had two catches on four targets for a mere 13 yards. Better days are ahead, but with everyone healthy in Green Bay, Kraft’s weekly scoring output could be volatile.
