Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3

Last week’s AFC East showdown boasted a ton of fantasy potential. Conversely, this New England Patriots vs. New York Jets rivalry game looks less appealing. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.

The Patriots got an upset win on the road in their opener. However, they weren’t able to get much going at home versus Seattle last week. Now traveling on a short week to face a tough Jets’ defense is another obstacle.

Meanwhile, New York is coming off of a victory but has mostly struggled to move the ball. The Jets are winning games with an old-school mentality. With the Patriots struggling to pass and produce touchdowns, we are looking at a low-scoring slugfest type of game.

New York opened as a touchdown favorite at home. The line dipped by just a half-point. However, the total plummeted down to 39 after opening at 42.5.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
New England Patriots	20	29	5	25	20
New York Jets	27	22	26	20	15

The raw data backs up that low total. Other than the Patriots doing an excellent job rushing the ball, neither of these squads stand out on offense. Offensive line play is a reason why.

New England’s front five has the fourth-lowest pass-blocking grade per PFF. And despite the success running the ball, the Patriots only rank 26th in run-blocking.

Conversely, the Jets rank 10th in run-blocking and 24th in pass protection.

Only the Ravens have allowed fewer rushing yards than the Patriots.

Points will be at a premium in this one.

New England Offense

Through two games, Jacoby Brissett ranks 29th in fantasy points. He has been held under 150 passing yards in both games. Additionally, Brissett doesn’t add much value with his legs. Facing a Jets defense that ranks ninth in limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks is a daunting task.

Brissett is +850 to rush for a touchdown. Also, his passing/rushing yards total of 181.5 hampers the entire New England passing attack. This is not an offense to target.

However, the ground game looks solid.

Rhamondre Stevenson ranks eighth in fantasy points. Stevenson is top-5 in carries and rushing yards and ranks sixth with a 75.6% snap share. Facing a Jets’ defense that ranks 24th against the run puts Stevenson in a solid position to approach RB1 numbers.

Don’t overreact to Antonio Gibson’s Week 2 performance. Gibson played just 16 snaps. He may have earned more playing time moving forward. However, until he gets more consistent snaps, Gibson is little more than a fledgling flex option in deep leagues.

New England doesn’t throw enough to their receivers to warrant redraft attention. No Patriots’ wideout is projected to top 22 yards.

Ja’Lynn Polk leads the group in fantasy points. But Polk’s 10.8 fantasy points ranks 69th at the position.

K.J. Osborn leads the receiving corps in snap share (68.4%) and has a solid 17% snap share. However, Osborn has only accumulated four grabs for 28 yards in two games.

Demario Douglas will man the slot but has only caught two balls for 12 yards.

The only Patriot pass-catcher worth targeting is TE Hunter Henry. Henry is coming off a robust 8/109/0 line on 12 targets vs. Seattle. However, this week’s matchup is tougher. The Jets held George Kittle to 40 yards and will undoubtedly make stopping Henry a priority. Henry’s receiving line total of 31.5 for this game is concerning.

New York Offense

Aaron Rodgers enters this game ranked 21st in fantasy points. He is relying on quick/short throws, resulting in a career-low 6.8 ADOT. Meanwhile, the Patriots have only allowed one touchdown pass. However, that came last week when Geno Smith looked fine throwing for 327 yards.

Rodgers no longer runs and his passing over/under for this contest is 214 yards.

Only the Texans and Ravens have allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs than New England. Still, Breece Hall is tied for the position lead with 14 targets and ranks fourth in fantasy points. The last time he faced this defense, Hall turned 39 touches into 190 yards and a score.

Braelon Allen made the most of his 20 snaps last week. However, he’ll find the going tougher against a Patriots’ defense that ranks 10th against running backs. Allen should be viewed as a high-risk DFS option in single-game slates.

WR Garrett Wilson has disappointed. The volume has not been there and Wilson ranks just 34th in fantasy points. However, the Patriots just got worked over by Seattle. They’ve surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts. Wilson will see plenty of Christian Gonzales in coverage, but his +145 TD odds and receiving line of 5.5/66.5 look good.

Mike Williams was up to 37 snaps in Week 2. However, Williams is still recovering from last year’s knee injury. He’s little more than a boom-or-bust DFS flier for now. Williams has a yardage prop of 23.5 yards and is +490 to score.

Allen Lazard fell off after his explosive showing in the opener. Lazard’s TD and yardage odds are higher than Williams’s, indicating that he is considered New York’s No. 2.

TE Tyler Conklin is playing 93% of snaps but has little production to show for all the playing time. Conklin has garnered just four targets and is averaging fewer fantasy points per game than Andrew Ogletree and MyCole Pruitt.

Prediction & Best Bet

Easy W taking the Bills last week. Buffalo has dominated the Dolphins. However, this matchup is tougher.

In January, the Jets finally ended a 15-game losing streak to the Patriots with a 17-3 victory at Foxborough. The last time New York beat New England at home was in December 2015.

As one-sided as this rivalry has been, the Jets have failed to cover in six of their last seven. However, none of those games were with Aaron Rodgers under center. Having a credible signal-caller makes a huge difference.

Meanwhile, the Pats have won 15-of-16 against the Jets, but a new regime and a transitional quarterback, that hardly seems relevant. What is applicable is New England going under in seven of their last eight in this stadium. In addition, the Patriots rank 20th in points scored this season.

The Jets are also 0-3 on Thursday Night Football with Robert Saleh on the sidelines. Seems like a low-scoring affair with both teams relying on the ground game. That should keep Jerod Mayo’s club within striking distance.

Underdogs of 6+ points this season are 8-0 ATS.

Best Bet: Patriots +6.5

Thanks for reading our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3.

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