Written By:
Jaime Eisner, Frankie Taddeo, a collaboration presented by The Draft Network.
Apr 22, 2024 • 1:01 am
As the 2024 NFL Draft draws closer, the volume of mock draft posts increases exponentially. It’s a wonderful time of year, honestly, and we can see all sorts of creativity play out. There are predictive and “what I would do” mocks. There are mocks with trades, mocks without them, best player available mocks, and so much more. However, this mock will be a bit different than all of those.
The players selected by each team are a reflection of available betting odds for teams, players, position groups, etc. That exercise is meant to illustrate what a chalk-like draft would look like. In addition to the selections, value plays are discussed to help give bettors a potential edge.
So let’s take a look at what a first-round 2024 NFL mock draft looks like based only on betting odds with value and sharp money plays included.
Reminder: Betting props often get taken down early—sometimes 48 hours in advance of Round 1. Be sure to get your wagers in well in advance.
2024 NFL Mock Draft
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC — Fantasy Profile – Superflex 1.01, Dynasty 1.07
There’s no suspense here. Caleb Williams is -20000 at DraftKings to be the No. 1 overall pick to the Bears. Don’t waste your time or money betting or fading this pick.
2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU — Fantasy Profile – Superflex 1.03, Dynasty 1.12
Jayden Daniels is -130 at FanDuel to be the second quarterback taken and the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels was heavily favored to be the second player off the board up until the middle of last week. Despite the massive odds swing, the dual-threat signal-caller is still favored to become the second QB off the board on Thursday night in MoTown.
3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina — Fantasy Profile – Superflex 1.05, Dynasty 2.08
The Patriots need to reset their quarterback clock by taking a rookie passer in the 2024 NFL Draft. The betting markets suggest Drake Maye is their answer. Maye is a -110 favorite at FanDuel to be the No. 3 overall pick in the draft.
Value Play: J.J. McCarthy (+380; FanDuel) — With so little information available about who the No. 2 overall pick will be, there isn’t much value in betting on either Maye or Daniels. If you want to take a flier, it’s possible either the Patriots or a trade-up team like the Giants, Vikings, or Broncos like McCarthy as the overall QB3.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.01, Superflex 1.02
Marvin Harrison Jr. is -200 at DraftKings to be selected fourth overall. The most sought-after target in 2024 Fantasy Football Dynasty leagues is heavily favored (-500) to be the first non-QB off the board. Fantasy football managers meet the newest weapon for Arizona QB Kyler Murray IF the Cardinals do not trade back with a QB-needy team looking to move up.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.02, Superflex 1.04
Like Arizona, this is a potential trade-up spot for a quarterback. However, if the Chargers stick and pick here, the only debate will be a wide receiver versus offensive tackle. Malik Nabers is the +200 favorite at MGM to be the Chargers’ selection. Los Angeles parted ways with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, leaving the roster in desperate need of a top wide receiver. Some in the NFL have Nabers as the WR1 in the class but he’s no lower than WR3.
Value Play: J.J. McCarthy (+450; FanDuel) — If the Chargers want a new right tackle, I expect they’ll trade down to select one. A trade-up from any of several teams below them would almost certainly be for a quarterback. The Chargers can easily move back to pick 11, 12, or 13 and still get their guy and a bunch of draft capital.
6. New York Giants
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan — Fantasy Profile – Superflex 1.08, Dynasty 3.02
After seeing both Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. come off the board just ahead of them in this scenario, the betting odds have the former Michigan standout favored to land with Big Blue. In fact, McCarthy is -900 at DraftKings to come off the board in the top 10, so we will stop his fall here.
7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
It feels like the No. 7 pick has been earmarked for Joe Alt for quite some time. The Titans have obvious needs along their offensive line and many regard Alt as the top overall offensive lineman in the 2024 class. When a team need matches talent, a perfect fit is born. Alt is a -175 favorite to be the No. 7 pick at DraftKings. Outside of Caleb Williams to the Bears at No. 1, this has been the most mocked player-team fit.
Value Play: Taliese Fuaga (+1000; Caesars) — Don’t expect anyone but Alt to be drafted in this spot if he’s still on the board, but what if Jim Harbaugh gets frisky at No. 5 and takes him? Sportsbooks appear to think the Titans will pivot to wide receiver, but I’m not so sure. The need on the offensive line is massive and Fuaga is a stud in his own right that could start for Tennessee right away.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The betting odds have former Crimson Tide standout Dallas Turner coming off the board to the Falcons at eighth overall. He’s the +150 favorite at Caesars to come off the board here.
Value Play: Byron Murphy II (+1400, DraftKings) — Respected Money in Vegas says Atlanta is high on Texas DT Byron Murphy II. Don’t be shocked to see Terry Fontenot trade back a few spots and grab Murphy II or perhaps just pull the trigger on the best DT in the class right here.
9. Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.03, Superflex 1.06
Wouldn’t this be a treat? Caleb Williams could walk into a Bears team with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze in his WR room. Odunze is the +150 favorite on DraftKings to be selected here. His draft position over/under is 8.5 at Circa. If the board falls this way, the odds suggest Odunze will be the pick
Value Play: Jared Verse (+430; FanDuel) — This is a potential trade-down spot for the Bears, but if they stay, I’d argue getting another edge rusher is a bigger priority than adding to the wide receiver room. Verse is considered by some to be the top pass rusher in the class and his size/skill set matches what Matt Eberflus loves in quarterback hunters.
10. New York Jets
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.04, Superflex 1.07
The Jets, who are in “Win Now” mode with aging QB Aaron Rodgers’ window closing, add another elite offensive weapon to play alongside Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall by grabbing the draft’s best TE, Brock Bowers. OT and WR are also strong options for Gang Green, but the betting odds lead us to the former Georgia standout. Bowers is +200 at MGM to be the 10th overall pick.
Value Play: Brock Bowers to be drafted Top 10 (+135; FanDuel) — If you want to give yourself a little more wiggle room than just the No. 10 slot, you can still get plus-odds on the TE1 going anywhere inside the top 10.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
I fully expect the Vikings to trade up for a quarterback—my gut says to pick No. 4—but if they stay here, there are no betting odds to indicate where they could go. Edge rusher is a need and Verse is the best on the board. Verse could also easily be the pick here if a team like Arizona trades down.
12. Denver Broncos
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
After failing to land one of the top four QBs, Denver tabs Bo Nix as the future of the Broncos franchise. Nix is -175 to be drafted by the Broncos at DraftKings.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The Raiders are +150 at DraftKings to take a cornerback with their first selection and Quinyon Mitchell is -125 to be the first cornerback selected. Mitchell is an ascending talent who will fill an immediate need for Las Vegas’ secondary.
Value Play: Raiders to draft OL (+160; DraftKings) — Cornerback is no doubt a need for the Raiders, but they need to bolster their offensive line as well. With so many talented blockers in this class, Las Vegas can find an immediate starter with this pick and that may be too tempting to pass up.
14. New Orleans Saints
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The former Beaver is the +175 favorite at DraftKings to be the second OT off the board behind Joe Alt. This selection makes total sense for a Saints team heavily favored by oddsmakers at -380 to upgrade their offensive line in the first round.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Colts are +110 at DraftKings to take a cornerback with their first pick. The best corner available is Terrion Arnold, who is -105 to be the second corner drafted and has his draft position over/under set at 15.5.
Value Play: Colts to draft Brock Bowers (+370; DraftKings) — As referenced above in the Jets section, neither Frankie nor I are convinced the Jets take Bowers at No. 10. If the tight end makes it past New York, Denver and Indianapolis are possible landing spots. Can the Broncos afford to draft a tight end right now? The Colts can and there are rumblings they will strongly consider it.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Betting odds indicate that the Seahawks are expected to take an offensive lineman with their first pick (-150 at DraftKings). Despite hometown Washington stud Troy Fautanu still sitting on the board, the odds take us to the Seahawks selecting the 2023 Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year Olu Fashanu as the third offensive lineman to be drafted.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Jaguars are expected to draft a cornerback with the No. 17 pick, according to the odds. DraftKings lists cornerback as a -175 favorite to be Jacksonville’s first pick. Cooper DeJean is +140 to be the third corner selected.
Value Play: Jaguars to draft OL (+500; DraftKings) — Both Cam Robinson and Walker Little are in contract years. Will either be back in Jacksonville in 2025? This could be a sneaky spot for an offensive tackle.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Bengals are listed at -200 at DraftKings to use their first pick on an offensive lineman. The Bengals add some vital protection in front of franchise QB Joe Burrow after landing 2023 All-SEC OL JC Latham at pick No. 18.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Byron Murphy II, IDL, Texas
The Rams are expected to select an offensive or defensive lineman with their first pick. DraftKings has defensive line as a co-favorite for the pick at +110, which makes sense since they have a hole to fill following Aaron Donald’s retirement.
Value Play: Rams to draft WR (+800; FanDuel) — I’m not running to the window for this one, but I do think there’s a chance the Rams decide to upgrade their WR3 situation. Plus, Cooper Kupp has missed 13 games over the last two seasons.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
The Steelers, who are massively favored on DraftKings at -330 to go offensive line with their first-round selection, are very happy to see the versatile Troy Fautanu slip this far. The former Washington standout can play either guard or tackle and immediately upgrades the protection in front of either Russell Wison or Justin Fields.
21. Miami Dolphins
Graham Barton, IOL, Duke
Sportsbooks are leaning fairly heavily toward the Dolphins drafting an offensive lineman. O-line is listed as a -195 favorite at FanDuel to be Miami’s first pick. Graham Barton is the best offensive lineman still available and arguably the best IOL in the class.
Value Play: Dolphins to draft WR (+900; FanDuel) — There have been some rumblings that wide receiver is a much stronger possibility for the Dolphins at No. 21 than has been reported. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are studs, but a third pass-catcher is needed.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
One of the best pass protectors in this class, Amarius Mims is a raw talent who has the size to fit in immediately with the Broad Street Bullies. The former Georgia talent has seen his draft position number shrink from 24.5 to 22.5 at Circa.
23. Minnesota Vikings (via HOU/CLE)
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
As mentioned back at pick No. 11, there is no betting market available here. I’d be surprised if the Vikings don’t trade up, but even more shocked if they leave night one of the draft without a quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. is the last QB available here in the first group of passers expected to be taken in the top 50.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
After losing Tyron Smith to the Jets, the Cowboys are -190 favorites at DraftKings to take an offensive lineman with their first pick. Dallas adds OT Tyler Guyton to beef up the protection in front of Dak Prescott. Despite limited experience, Guyton is a raw prospect prohibitively favored (-1000) to hear his name called on Thursday night.
25. Green Bay Packers
Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon
The Packers are -180 at FanDuel to take an offensive lineman with their opening draft pick. Jackson Powers-Johnson would bolster the Packers’ interior offensive line and is -215 to be a first-round pick.
Value Play: Packers to draft CB (+260; FanDuel) — While adding to the line makes sense, Green Bay has needs in the secondary as well. If a ton of offensive linemen get drafted early, the top player on their board may be a corner.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Despite being favored to go earlier, with a draft position number of 17.5, the edge rusher falls further than projected in this mock. Tampa Bay is favored to invest in an edge player (-150 at DraftKings) and Latu’s slide ends here.
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Because the Cardinals have multiple picks, there is no market for this pick. However, the Cardinals need a corner, Nate Wiggins is the highest-ranked one available, and his draft position over/under is 26.5 at Circa. This all fits here.
28. Buffalo Bills
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.05, Superflex 1.09
The Bills, who traded disgruntled WR Stefon Diggs to Houston, add a dynamic weapon for Josh Allen at No. 28. Respected Money has poured in on Thomas’ overall draft position market of 17.5—it now sits at 19.5 with juice to the over. The 6-foot-4 vertical deep threat will be a popular sleeper in fantasy football re-drafts this summer if he lands in Orchard Park.
29. Detroit Lions
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
While an EDGE could be in play here, the consensus among sportsbooks is that cornerback is the most likely selection—it’s +130 at FanDuel. Kool-Aid McKinstry is the last first-round corner still available and his current draft position over/under at Circa is 28.5.
Value Play: Lions to draft DL/EDGE (+300, MGM) — The Lions could use another pass rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson. Chop Robinson and Darius Robinson are potential fits with this pick.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
The Ravens who lost two starting offensive linemen (Morgan Moses and John Simpson) to the Jets in free agency are happy to land Jordan Morgan, a three-year starter at left tackle for the Wildcats. The Ravens are -280 at DraftKings to take an offensive lineman in Round 1.
Value Play: Jordan Morgan to be drafted in the first round (-115; FanDuel) — Sharp Money has been quietly investing in Jordan Morgan being a first-round selection.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.10, Superflex 1.12
Adonai Mitchell is a whopping -800 to be selected in the first round at DraftKings. Given the uncertainty surrounding Brandon Aiyuk’s future in San Francisco, WR may be a need by the time we get to the draft.
Value Play: 49ers to draft CB (+450, MGM) — The 49ers could go in a few directions with this pick—WR, OL, EDGE, and CB are all options. I think the corner room could use a boost and would be a tempting pick, especially if there’s a top-five corner still on the board.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.08, Superflex 1.11
Meet Tyreek Hill 2.0 for defending Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Worthy, who turned heads after running a record-breaking 4.21s 40-yard dash at the 2024 NFL Combine, is heavily favored (-225; DraftKings) to sneak into the back end of the first round and Kansas City is -115 to draft a wide receiver with its first pick.
Just missed: Ladd McConkey — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.09, Superflex 1.12
Stay tuned here at Fulltime Fantasy for more Mocks from the high-stakes fantasy football community including Scott and Jody’s FINAL Mock drafts they’ll be entering in the National contest at The Huddle Report where they’ll go against the best mockers in the country including Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Peter Schrager, Evan Silva, Ben Standig and more.
Finally, check out the Player Movement Report on FFToolbox to keep track of who’s went where. The 2024 NFL season is upon us and All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord!
