The postseason opening slate certainly had its share of drama. After a 5-1 start in our NFL Wild Card Game Picks, we’ll look to the winning ways going with our NFL Division Round Game Picks.
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But first, let’s break down the NFL Division Round Game Picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
Jacksonville has won six straight games but that streak is very likely to end on Saturday. The Jaguars are the biggest underdogs in the Division Round and have the unenviable task of traveling on a short week to take on the well-rest Chiefs. Prior to losing the AFC Championship last January to the Bengals, Kansas City had won seven straight postseason games at Arrowhead.
Overall, the Chiefs have won their last five but things haven’t always been easy. The Chiefs were just 7-10 ATS in the regular season and 3-5 at home. Although the Chiefs have a potent offense and a defense that gives up plenty of points, the under has hit five of the last six home games. The Chiefs have won six straight the Jags, but the total has gone under in four of those games.
This is a tough spot for the Jags. Jacksonville has only won four of its last 25 road games. Worse, they’ll have to deal with the elements at Arrowhead, where the Jags have dropped four straight by an average score of 30-16. Also, the over hit in just one of the last five games in KC between these two squads.
PICK: UNDER 53
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
This will be the third matchup in a month for these two NFC East rivals. Philadelphia won both regular-season tilts, but New York hung tough in a meaningless Week 18 showing at Lincoln Financial Field. Playing in the City of Brotherly Love has been difficult for the Giants. New York hasn’t won in Philadelphia since 2013.
Jalen Hurts should be fully healthy, which makes a big difference for the Eagles. Having Hurts absent or limited has hurt Philly. The Eagles are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five. Interestingly, the Eagles have won 18 of their last 20 games outright as favorites. However, Philadelphia has dropped four straight as playoff favorites.
Fun Fact: The Giants are 6-0 all-time versus No. 1 seeds dating back to 1990. Pulling postseason upsets and covers is nothing new for the G-Men. New York has covered 10 of their last 11 games as playoff underdogs and outright won 8-of-9 as dogs. Also, the Giants are an NFL-best 14-4 against the spread this season. Division rematches in the playoffs also tend to favor the underdog. Plus, we’re getting more than a touchdown.
PICK: Giants +7.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Emotions will be high in this one. Cincinnati was leading Buffalo and driving before the Damar Hamlin injury ultimately stopped play. The Bengals feel like this game should be played in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Bills want to shake off a rusty Wild Card performance and prove this game is rightfully being played in Orchard Park. These two AFC powers have evenly split their last eight meetings.
The Bills have won eight consecutive games and enter this game 14-3 overall. However, the Bills were a middling 8-8-1 ATS, including 4-5 versus the number at home. Buffalo has only covered the number twice in their last seven at Highmark Stadium. But, scoring hasn’t been an issue. The over has hit in five of Buffalo’s last six home contests. Plus, the Bills have won 7 of their last 9 home games against the Bengals, with the total going over seven times.
At 12-5 against the number, Cincinnati boasts the second-best ATS record in the NFL. Overall, the Bengals have won nine straight games and covered the spread in seven of their last eight away games. Plenty of points have been scored in this series, as well. Weather doesn’t appear to be much of a factor on Sunday, so Joe Burrow should be able to keep pace with Buffalo’s potent offense.
PICK: Bengals +5.5
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Some of the most memorable NFC playoff games in history were between the Cowboys and the 49ers. This will be a record-tying ninth postseason meeting between San Francisco and Dallas. The Niners knocked off the Cowboys in the opening round one year ago. This time, Dallas is on the road and has to contend with a 49ers squad that has won a league-best 11 consecutive games.
San Francisco’s last loss was in Week 7. Since then, QB Brock Purdy has taken over and helped spark the offense. The 49ers have scored 33-plus points in six of their last seven games. The over has hit in 6-of-7 and the Niners have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games. But, things haven’t been easy when playing the Cowboys. Dallas has gone 6-2 straight up against San Francisco and 1-5 in their last six at home.
Dallas has been one of the best road teams in the NFL over the past two seasons. The Cowboys went 5-4 ATS on the road in 2022 and were 8-1 in 2021. While San Francisco has the league’s top defense, Dallas has the kind of balanced offense that can try to establish the run or challenge a secondary that surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Dallas has gone 7-3 (5-3-2) vs. San Francisco since 2001 and should be able to keep this one a one-possession game.
PICK: Dallas +4
