Tennessee Titans Team Outlook
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Titans Offense Outlook
It took Tennessee almost a half a season to figure out that they needed to be a high-volume game. They finished with a balanced offense while desperately needing to find more upside in their passing offense. The Titans want to play solid defense while pounding the run game. With more success throwing the ball, this offense could make a step forward in all areas.
Over the last three seasons, Mariota has a 24-19 record while averaging just over 28 passes per game. In 2016, Marcus played well leading to 26 TDs and only nine Ints. In 2017, Mariota struggled to throw TDs (13) while making more mistakes (15 interceptions). Last year his passing output (2,528) had more fade despite a career-high completion rate (68.9). He finished with only 11 passing TDs and eight Ints.
Mariota passed for 300 yards in two games while never tossing more than two TDs in a game. Marcus had nine games with one TD or fewer. His legs can still offer upside in the run game (64/357/1). Last year he missed two games while battling multiple injuries on the year.
2019 Marcus Mariota Fantasy Outlook
In 2019, Mariota may have two elite WRs if Corey Davis finally reaches his expected value and A.J. Brown hits the ground running. Tennessee added a possession receiver who has some scoring ability in the red zone. If Delanie Walker regains his previous form, Marcus should have the best season of his career. Excellent gamble as QB2 as he could gain 4,000 combined yards with a chance with 30+ TDs.
Other Options: Logan Woodside
Last year I owned Henry on about one-third of my high-stakes teams. I expected him to be a playable RB2 with a favorable draft value. In the end, he finished as 16th highest scoring RB in PPR leagues thanks to scoring more than half of his Fantasy points over the last four weeks of the season (12.50, 47.80, 30.30, and 16.20). Unfortunately, most owners had him on the bench for his electric game in Week 15 (238 rushing yards and four TDs). Over the first 12 games of the season, the Titans only gave him 11.7 touches per game, which wasn’t helped by his 3.7 yards per rush.
2019 Derrick Henry Fantasy Outlook
In his final four games, Henry averaged 22.5 touches per game while gaining 6.7 yards per rush. Tennessee finally figured out that they have to feature their workhorse back if they want to be rewarded with explosive plays plus wear down defenses in the four quarter. Last year the Titans’ RBs combined for 2,164 yards with 16 TDs and 74 catches on 459 touches. This season Derrick should push his way to 300+ touches leading to 1,400 combined yards with a run at 15 TDs and about 25 catches.
Tennessee had visions of Lewis being an impact change of pace back, but he struggled to make big plays. He finished with 917 combined yards with two TDs and 59 catches on 214 combined touches. Dion gained only 3.3 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per carry. Over the first nine games last year, Lewis had six games with 15 touches or more highlighted by two active games (Week 1 – 110 combined yards with a TD and five catches and Week 9 – 122 combined yards with one TD and four catches). His final stats ranked him 27th in RB scoring in PPR leagues. Game flow is the key to his value from week-to-week.
2019 Dion Lewis Fantasy Outlook
A Fantasy owner should expect between eight and ten touches per game. I’ll set the bar at 150 touches with one-third of his chances coming in the passing game. More of an RB4 for me due to his wide range of outcomes over the long NFL season.
In his first full season in the NFL, Davis caught 65 of his 112 targets for 891 yards and four TDs. His catch rate (58.0) had growth while adding length to his catches (13.7 yards). Over the first nine games of the seasons when the Titans were confused on how they wanted to run their offense, Corey caught 43 balls for 576 yards and two TDs highlighted by two electric games (9/161/1 and 7/125/1). After the Titans decided to run the ball more, Davis limped him with 22 catches for 315 yards and two TDs over his last seven games.
The most impressive thing about Davis on draft day in 2017 was the high praise from longtime NFL WR Steve Smith. He knows what it takes to have success in the NFL, and he painted an impressive picture of this young man in my eyes. Corey was a TD machine (46 over 39 games) over his last three seasons at Western Michigan. Over four years in college, Davis caught 331 passes for 5278 yards and 52 TDs. He’ll win many jump balls plus he does an excellent job tracking the deep pass.
Corey has the accelerator to turn a short screen pass into a long TD. He runs well in the open field with the ball in his hands plus his second gear creates instant separation after the catch. Davis will have value in fades at the goal line and enough quickness to score on slants. He’ll represent the number 84 well in his career.
2019 Corey Davis Fantasy Outlook
Last season the WRs on Tennessee caught a league-low 150 passes for 1,867 yards and seven TDs on 245 targets. Corey has the makings of being a third-year breakout player. I’d draft him with the idea of a 70/1000/7 season while understanding he could easily beat that prediction by 20 percent.
Brown can’t match the speed of the top WRs in the 2019 draft class, but his game looks the most NFL ready. His movements with the ball in his hands seem to be uncanny creating yards after the catch, which is somewhat surprising for his size (6’0” and 226 lbs.). A.J. has the wheels to have success in the NFL (4.49 40 yards dash). His route running is advanced helping his value at the goal line and the deep passing game. Over the last two seasons at Ole Miss, he caught 160 passes for 2,572 yards and 17 TDs highlighted by his junior year (85/1320/6).
He played along D.K. Metcalf in college. Fantasy owners have been searching for the next impact 100-catch WR to replace the loss of Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, or Calvin Johnson. Brown fits the WR1 mold in his rookie season, but he landed on a team with a weak passing game.
2019 A.J. Brown Fantasy Outlook
I’m excited about his upside, but I have to temper my expectations based on the WR structure and the expected passing opportunity in Tennessee. I’ll start his initial prediction with about 50 catches for 750 yards and a handful of TDs. If he hits the ground running, Brown will make the players around him better.
Based on his junior and senior seasons at Western Kentucky (86/1467/17 and 98/1730/17), Taylor should have moved up quickly up the Titans’ depth chart at wide receiver. Taylor has a very good release with upside as a route runner. He’ll add value after the catch while needing improvement in his hands. His next step is showing the ability to get open against higher level CBs. The change in WR structure in this offense pushes Taywan into a minimal role without an injury. Last year he caught 37 of his 56 targets for 466 yards and one TD.
Other Options: Tajae Sharpe, Darius Taylor, Cameron Batson, Kalif Batson, Anthony Ratliff-Williams
Walker broke his right ankle one game into 2018 leading to a lost season. In Week 1, he caught four of seven targets for 52 yards. Over the previous five seasons, Walker has been the best receiving option in Tennessee. With the Titans, he’s averaged about 4.5 catches for 55 yards and 0.33 TDs per game or 12.0 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. He has over 100 targets in four seasons leading to 800+ yards receiving each year. In 2017, Delanie had 74 catches for 807 yards and three TDs on 111 targets. He finished with eight games with five catches or more, but only one game with over 80 yards receiving (6/92).
2019 Delanie Walker Fantasy Outlook
Walker will start the year at age 35, which makes him a tough player to trust after a significant injury. Marcus Mariota will look for the TE on many plays (97/1015/6 in 2017), but the lack of a top TE last year led to 67 catches for 802 yards and seven TDs on 89 targets. A reasonable chance at 60+ catches for 600+ yards and mid-level TDs.
Other Options: Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser, MyCole Pruitt, Parker Hesse, Cole Wick
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