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Senior Fantasy Football Expert Shawn Childs breaks down and forecasts the top players from the biggest colleges in the nation! In this edition, he takes a look at Tom Brady, Devin Funchess and many more of your favorite former Wolverines! Stay tuned for more College Football Player Breakdowns!
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QB Tom Brady – The career record of Brady is just dazzling. He’s won 10 or more games in 15 of 16 full seasons, which includes an 11-1 record in 2016 when he missed four games. His only year with fewer than ten wins came in 2002 when he went 9-7. Tom ranks 4th all-time in passing yards (66,159) with Peyton Manning (71,940) and Brett Favre (71,838) within each if he plays two more seasons. He’s tied with Drew Brees for the 3rd most passing TDs (488) with his next target being Brett Favre (508) with Peyton Manning (539) on the horizon in 2019. Brady leads all QBs in regular season wins (196) and playoff wins (27) while winning five Super Bowls. In 2017, he led the NFL in passing attempts (581) and passing yards (4,577) while delivering 32 TDs and only eight Ints. At age 40, he set the NFL record for passing yards (505) in his loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
There is no disputing his greatness, but a Fantasy owner needs to know where he stands heading into the 2018 season. New England will be in transition on the offensive line, and their receiving core has some question marks this year with Julian Edelman returning from an ACL tear, and Brandin Cooks shipped out of town. Rob Gronkowski is getting closer to retiring with competitive offers in the wrestling market. The addition of Sony Michel will help keep defenses honest defending the run, which will create more space the short area passing game, where Brady excels. His floor has to be 4,500 passing yards and 30 TDs based on his career history. New England has over 575 pass attempts in six of the last seven seasons with Tom averaging almost 33 passing TDs over his last eight seasons. At some point, this Patriot train has to come to an end, but it may have to wait until number 12 hangs up his cleats. Don’t overpay on draft day but take Brady as a discount when other Fantasy owners are placing their bets on younger unproven QBs. In 2018, I would make sure I own another strong QB just in case the sky finally falls in Foxboro.
WR Devin Funchess – After two boring seasons (31/473/5 and 23/371/4) to start his NFL career, Funchess looked the part of a starting NFL WR in 2017. He caught 63 passes for 840 yards and eight TDs in 111 targets. Devin had a poor catch rate (56.8), but he did play through multiple injuries (knee, hamstring, toe, and shoulder). Funchess had five games with five catches or more and one game with over 100 yards receiving. His best success came in Week 4 (7/70/2 and Week 10 (5/92/2). Last year Carolina completed 151 passes to the WR position on 260 targets for 1,922 yards and 12 TDs. With a healthy Greg Olsen and D.J. Mooreadded to the roster, Funchess will have more competition for targets. Cam Newton has never attempted over 517 passes in a season, and his completion rate tends to be around 60 percent. The quick math breaks down to about 300 completions with Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen expected to catch at least half of those balls. The WR position again is left with only about 150 catches in 2018 unless Newton has a jump in passing attempts or completes a high percentage of throws. I’ll set his bar close to his final stats in 2017 – 60 catches for 800 yards and seven TDs while understanding Devin has as much upside as a downside if D.J. Moore hits the ground running.
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TE Jake Butt – Over four seasons at Michigan, Butt caught 138 passes for 1,646 yards and 11 TDs with his best success coming in his junior year in 2015 (51/654/3). He suffered a torn ACL in his bowl game in 2017 leading to him sliding in this season draft (fifth round). Jake has plus hands with questionable separation skills off the line of scrimmage. He missed all of last year due to a slow recovery from his knee injury. In 2017, the Broncos’ TEs caught 50 passes for 657 yards and four TDs on 79 targets. With Denver added a third strong WR in this year’s draft, the TE position offers no real upside in the Fantasy market from week-to-week.
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