Daily Dr. Roto — June 7, 2018
Top 15 RB Profile: LeSean McCoy
Buffalo Bills RB LeSean McCoy aka “Shady” has been one of the most consistent running backs in Fantasy Football over the last eight years. He can usually be counted on for 1000+ yards rushing (he’s done it in six of the past eight years), and 50+ catches out of the backfield (five of the past eight years). However, as we head into 2018, many question marks are surrounding whether McCoy is still worthy of being an RB1 for a Fantasy team.
I cannot picture drafting McCoy this year in the first three rounds as there are plenty of worry spots for me. Firstly, QB Tyrod Taylor is now in Cleveland, and A.J. McCarron and/or Josh Allen will be the new starting quarterback in Buffalo. While it is true that Taylor was not a terrific passer, he was a mobile runner out of the pocket. Normally defenses would have at least one linebacker spying on him in case he decided to take off and run. Now with Taylor gone and a new pocket passing QB in place, there might be fewer running lanes for McCoy. McCarron and/or Allen are both new to the offense and are pocket passers who need time and protection to be effective. This will shut down potential running lanes for McCoy and force the OL to do a better job of finding him room to run.
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Getting the OL to open enough holes might be a problem as the Bills have lost three of their starting offensive lineman from last season. Center Eric Wood is retired, OL Richie Incognito retired, wants to come back and has been red-flagged for off-field mental issues so he is probably out of the game, and OT Cordy Glenn is now in Cincinnati. Where is McCoy going to find running room if he doesn’t have veteran blockers in front of him?
The Bills have also brought in RB Chris Ivory to be his backup. Ivory is a very tough runner who has great vision but has dealt with a myriad of injuries over the course of his career. The Bills brought in Ivory specifically, so they could feel comfortable about reducing McCoy’s game to game workload. With Ivory around stealing about one to two series per half (and some short yardage carries), McCoy will probably have closer to 225 carries than 250. While this does preserve his career, it doesn’t help McCoy’s overall numbers.
The Bills have virtually no passing game outside of WR Kelvin Benjamin. And while I like Benjamin, he is not a stretch the field type of receiver so opposing safeties might play closer to the box defensively. Additionally, last year’s early round draft pick WR Zay Jones was a huge disappointment as he showed that his game is not pro ready just yet. With no deep threat in the passing game, defenses will key on McCoy even more than they did last season.
There is no doubt that McCoy will have some Fantasy success in 2018 mainly because he will have a significant amount of touches. Players who get touches are normally effective players, but I expect McCoy to slow down considerably this season. So, while McCoy will still be draftable, it will be more like in the fourth round as opposed to a first or second-round draft pick.
LeSean McCoy’s Predicted Stats: 225 carries – 1003 rushing yards – 7 TDs & 45 catches – 421 receiving yards – 2 TDs
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