The Data-Driven Edge The Data-Driven Edge: Using Vegas Betting Markets to Help You Dominate In Fantasy Football by Frank Taddeo Incorporating player proposition betting markets into my yearly projections has played an integral role in becoming the No. 1-ranked high-stakes […]
The Data-Driven Edge
The Data-Driven Edge: Using Vegas Betting Markets to Help You Dominate In Fantasy Football
by Frank Taddeo
Incorporating player proposition betting markets into my yearly projections has played an integral role in becoming the No. 1-ranked high-stakes season-long fantasy football player in Las Vegas. My draft model, which came into existence while working for one of the most prominent Vegas sportsbooks back in 2010, enables me to possess a data-driven edge when making key informed decisions. The player proposition betting markets reflect expert analysis, statistical models, and market trends on player performance expectations.
Vegas Markets Can Provide An Unbiased Edge…
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Top 10 Fantasy Football Handcuffs (2024) No position is as volatile or susceptible to injuries as running backs. Part of building a competitive fantasy football roster is to include an insurance policy. Targeting those handcuff running backs is a viable […]
Top 10 Fantasy Football Handcuffs (2024)
No position is as volatile or susceptible to injuries as running backs. Part of building a competitive fantasy football roster is to include an insurance policy. Targeting those handcuff running backs is a viable strategy and safety net.
With so many teams employing committee backfields, selecting your early-round running back’s direct backup makes sense. Whether you play in redraft, bestball, or in high-stakes leagues, knowing the fantasy-relevant handcuff running backs is crucial.
Here are the top 10 fantasy football handcuffs (2024) to target this summer.
David Montgomery (Detroit Lions)
Jahmyr Gibbs is now the top running back in Detroit. However, Montgomery has standalone value as a very good RB2. Montgomery will see 15-plus touches per week and will retain a healthy percentage of Detroit’s red-zone touches. The only problem for Gibbs managers would be ensuring their investment by having to target Montgomery in the fourth or fifth round. Subsequently, Montgomery is the ideal ‘anti-handcuff’ target for drafters trying to…
WHAT OTHER RUNNING BACK HANDCUFFS SHOULD FANTASY DRAFTERS TARGET IN 2024 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?
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2024 Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Preview Seattle took a step back in 2023 after finishing 11th in total yards (351.5) and 9th in points per game (23.9). They fell to 21st (322.9) in total yards per game and 17th in points […]
2024 Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Preview
Seattle took a step back in 2023 after finishing 11th in total yards (351.5) and 9th in points per game (23.9). They fell to 21st (322.9) in total yards per game and 17th in points (21.4).
So why the regression? Look no further than Geno Smith’s production. Smith (3,624/20/9) went from the fifth highest-scoring fantasy quarterback in 2022 to dropping to 19th after seeing a decrease of 79 fantasy points from one season to the next. Smith is currently penciled in as the starter entering 2024. However, the Seahawks added insurance in trading for Sam Howell, who was more productive in fantasy, producing 43 more fantasy points than Smith despite turning the ball over 23 times.
DK Metcalf (66/1,114/8) led all Seahawk pass catchers and likely would have finished higher than WR21 if he had caught more than 55% of the targets he had seen. Metcalf retains value heading into 2024, as he was the team’s go-to option in the red zone. Metcalf remains a solid fantasy option with 16 end zone targets (fourth-most among receivers) and a receiving touchdown market share of 38.1% (14th).
Tyler Lockett is also returning for another season after seeing 122 targets last year, resulting in 894 yards and 79 receptions. Lockett’s production on the field led to 202 fantasy points and a WR32 finish, making him an ideal target as your third or fourth receiver.
Expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba (63/628/4) to take a step forward this season after showing signs of a breakout in 2023. Between weeks 7 and 16, the rookie posted a top-40 scoring week in seven of those ten contests, giving him a lovely floor as a flex option. With a current ADP of 105 (WR43), Smith-Njigba is worth a roster spot and if Lockett or Metcalf were to miss time due to injury, then you could have a league-winner on your hands.
At running back, Seattle is expected to use Kenneth Walker (219/905/8) and Zach Charbonnet (108/462/1) as a duo, with Walker again in line for the lion’s share of the touches out of the backfield. Walker should be viewed as an RB2 in fantasy. If either back misses time, the other will certainly have the opportunity to ascend into RB1 status.
Noah Fant (32/414/0) is looking to bounce back from the worst season of his career in yards, receptions, and touchdowns. However, the best may long be behind him at this point.
After a career year in 2022, Smith saw a precipitous drop in play last year. The decline of the offensive line played a big part, as Smith was pressured more and had less time to throw. Despite the addition of second-round G Christian Haynes, Seattle’s front-five looks like a bottom-10 unit. Additionally, Seattle will be breaking in a new defensive-minded head coach and an offensive coordinator with no NFL play-calling experience. And there is added competition in the form of Sam Howell. The Seahawks have a solid supporting cast, giving some hope that Smith can rekindle some of the 2022 magic. But with the fourth-lowest win total projection, this is shaping up to be another tough season in Seattle. ADVICE: Low-end QB2.
2024 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview Throughout the 2024 offseason, there have been more rumors surrounding the San Francisco 49ers receiver room than a Fleetwood Mac album. Brock Purdy (4,280/31/11) is banking on the availability of Deebo Samuel and Brandon […]
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2024 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview The 2023 Los Angeles Rams surprised many by winning 10 games and clinching a spot in the postseason after finishing the previous season with a disappointing 5-12 record. It didn’t hurt that the Ram’s […]
2024 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview
The 2023 Los Angeles Rams surprised many by winning 10 games and clinching a spot in the postseason after finishing the previous season with a disappointing 5-12 record. It didn’t hurt that the Ram’s offense finished in the top 12 in passing yards, rushing yards, and points per game.
One of the biggest reasons the Rams doubled their win total was Matthew Stafford’s health. Stafford (3,965/24/11) managed to play in 15 contests after playing in just nine the season before. Only Lamar Jackson completed more “Hero” throws among quarterbacks who attempt at least 275 passes.
Last year during the draft, the Rams selected Puka Nacua (105/1486/6) in the fifth round, and all he did was put together the most outstanding season a rookie wide receiver has ever had. Nacua accounted for a 32.9% air yards share and a target of 26.8% (11th-most) last season as Cooper Kupp missed five games. He also averaged 2.75 yards per route run in 2023, the ninth most among receivers. It’s hard to imagine Nacua repeating those numbers, especially with a healthy Kupp, but he is still worthy of being a WR1 this season.
Despite Kupp only playing in 12 contests, the former triple-crown winner still finished the 2023 fantasy season as the WR39 and was 25th in fantasy points per game in PPR formats. Father time remains undefeated; maybe it was the injuries, or perhaps it’s part of turning 30, but Kupp saw a career low in his yards per route run (1.77) last season, something worth monitoring.
If Puka Nacua was the biggest surprise for fantasy managers, what do we call Kyren Williams? Williams (228/1,144/12) finished as the RB5 in PPR formats with 255 fantasy points despite missing four games. Only Christian McCafferys 24.5 fantasy points per contest were more than Williams 21.3.
Williams was a bell-cow for the Rams, accounting for nearly 48% of all the touches in the run game. One reason for concern is that the club did draft Blake Corum, who had also proven to be a workhorse over his last two seasons at Michigan with more than 500 carries and 2,700 rushing yards.
Tyler Higbee (47/497/2) isn’t going to move the needle much in fantasy. Sure, he’ll give you some TE1-type weeks this season, but the volume is not going to be there to make him much more than a TE2 on your roster.
Now 36, Stafford has settled in as a reliable streaming option but is unlikely to revert back to his high-volume role from yesteryear. Last season, the Rams were top-10 in points and offense but Stafford was firmly outside the top-12 fantasy ranks. The emergence of WR Puka Nacua helped Stafford rebound from a down 2022 showing. Nacua and Cooper Kupp give the Rams a formidable duo and help ensure that Stafford’s floor remains safe. He offers nothing as a runner and tends to turn the ball over a tad much, but Stafford can be a reliable source of points as a bye-week fill-in or as a QB2 in Superflex leagues….
2024 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Preview The Arizona Cardinals have now produced back-to-back four-win seasons. Kyler Murray returns, which is excellent news for the Cardinals, who finished 24th in points per game and 26th in passing yards last season. Murray will […]
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