DFS
Week 12 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Week 12 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Calvin Ridley (7/121/2) climbed off the mat to post the top wide receiver game in Week 12. He jumped to 26th in wide receiver scoring (126.60 fantasy points) in PPR formats while starting the […]
Calvin Ridley (7/121/2) climbed off the mat to post the top wide receiver game in Week 12. He jumped to 26th in wide receiver scoring (126.60 fantasy points) in PPR formats while starting the week ranked 41st. Tyreek Hill (30.60) was the only other wideout to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Nathaniel Dell (28.90), Keenan Allen (27.60), and Brandon Aiyuk (26.60) rounded out the Super High-Five. Five other wide receivers scored between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five wide receivers ranked by scoring average after 11 weeks:
- Tyreek Hill (25.59)
- Keenan Allen (23.32)
- CeeDee Lamb (21.57)
- A.J. Brown (20.53)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.31)
Six of the seven wideouts were all selected in the first round (Keenan Allen has an ADP of 28) in most leagues in the high-stakes market. Due to an injury, Justin Jefferson (1st overall) was the only wide receiver bust. Christian McCaffrey played up to expectations, while Austin Ekeler (missed three games), Garrett Wilson (Aaron Rodgers injury), Bijan Robinson (Falcons haven’t committed to him), and Saquon Barkley (missed three games) underachieved expectations.
Also, before we get into the Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,800/FD – $8,700)
The Bills struggled to get Stefon Diggs the ball in back-to-back games (3/34 and 4/27 on 13 combined targets). He hasn’t gained more than 100 receiving yards since Week 6. Over this span, Diggs gained only 9.8 yards per catch. When at his best over the first six games, he averaged 8.2 catches for 103 yards and 0.83 touchdowns or 23.49 fantasy points in PPR formats. His best showing (6/120/3) came in Week 4 vs. the Dolphins. Diggs played well in all four road starts (10/192/1, 8/111, 6/58/1, and 6/86/1).
Philadelphia has the worst wide receiver defense (166/1,922/15 on 266 targets) in the league, with significant issues in five matchups (MIN – 17/265/2, WAS – 22/230/1, MIA – 20/206/1, WAS – 24/288/3, and DAL – 18/271/2). Despite their struggles, only four wideouts gained over 100 yards (Justin Jefferson – 11/159, Cooper Kupp – 8/118, Jahan Dotson – 8/108/1, and CeeDee Lamb – 11/191). CB Darius Slay sees minimal coverage out of the slot, pointing to Buffalo trying to get Diggs matched up with CB James Bradberry (31/374/6 on 56 targets – per PFF) on more plays. CB Bradley Roby (5/58/1 on 11 targets) and Josh Jobe (15/206/3 on 28 targets) handle the wide receiver assignments on the inside.
With CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St, Brown, and Keenan Allen off the main slate on Sunday, Diggs is one of three higher-end wideouts with a chance at an impact game. I expect double-digit targets with an excellent chance of scoring, setting up a 30+ fantasy point game. My first team build in the Millionaire Maker at DraftKings will have Diggs as one of my foundation pieces.
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Week 12 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 12 DFS: Running Back Report Saquon Barkley (30.00) was the best running back in the league in Week 12. That was despite playing on the road with a third-string quarterback and a questionable offensive line. No other back scored […]
Saquon Barkley (30.00) was the best running back in the league in Week 12. That was despite playing on the road with a third-string quarterback and a questionable offensive line. No other back scored more than 24.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Jaylen Warren (23.50), Jahmyr Gibbs (21.50), and Christian McCaffrey (21.30) rounded out this week’s running back superfecta. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average after 11 weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (24.39)
- Raheem Mostert (18.19)
- Travis Etienne (17.92)
- Rachaad White (15.13)
- D’Andre Swift (15.07)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 11 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Jonathan Taylor, IND (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,500)
In their last game, the Colts had Jonathan Taylor on the field for 88% of their snaps, compared to 16% by Zack Moss. Taylor averaged 20.3 touches over Indy’s previous four games, with 361 combined yards, three touchdowns, and 10 catches. He ran the ball well in his last two home starts (30/170/1 – 5.7 yards per rush), with success in the passing game (4/47).
Tampa Bay comes into Week 12 with the fourth-best defense against running backs (16.31 FPPG), with no team scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. The Bucs allow 3.7 yards per rush (241/900/4). Backs have 50 catches for 309 yards (6.2 YPC) and two touchdowns on 59 targets.
Four of the top seven running backs are off the main slate on Sunday, including Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. Taylor doesn’t have the best matchup, and Indy could always rotate in Zack Moss to steal away some of his upside. Taylor should be in daily gamer thoughts in Week 12 based on potential opportunity and explosiveness.
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Week 12 DFS: Tight End Report
Week 12 DFS: Tight End Report Last week, the tight end position had a down week in scoring, leading to only eight players scoring over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Three of those tight ends (Josh Oliver – 14.70, […]
Last week, the tight end position had a down week in scoring, leading to only eight players scoring over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Three of those tight ends (Josh Oliver – 14.70, Stone Smartt – 12.10, and Luke Schoonmaker – 10.30) were backup options on their teams. George Kittle (22.90) was the only difference-maker at tight end in Week 12. Travis Kelce (16.40) posted the second-best game. Here are the top five tight ends over 11 weeks ranked by scoring average:
- Travis Kelce (15.71)
- T.J. Hockenson (15.60)
- George Kittle (13.80)
- Sam LaPorta (12.52)
- Mark Andrews (12.31)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 12 DFS: QB Report.
Elite Options
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,300)
The Chiefs struggled to get Kelce the ball over the past three weeks (6/58, 3/14, 7/44/1 on 22 combined targets), putting the brakes on his rising stock from Week 5 to Week 7 (31/370/2 on 33 targets). Last year, he had 13 catches for 63 yards and four touchdowns on 15 targets in two games vs. the Raiders. Kelce has a floor of nine targets in seven of his nine starts.
Las Vegas sits 11th in tight end fantasy defense (55/481/3 on 68 targets), with no player gaining more than 70 receiver yards (Tyler Conklin – 7/70). Their higher ranking is helped by a favorable tight end schedule (DEN – 7/56, BUF – 8/53/1, PIT – 3/41/1, LAC – 2/9, GB – 8/65, NE – 5/50, CHI – 1/16, DET – 9/62/1, NYG – 3/43, NYJ – 8/76, and MIA – 1/10).
Based on his salary, Kelce should be considered an elite WR1 in the DFS market. He needs 30+ fantasy points to fill his salary bucket which requires a 7/100/2 type outcome. The decision is whether Kelce can match the top running backs and wide receivers in Week 12.
Mid-Tier Options
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Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The wide receiver story from last week had two chapters. The first was the high-scoring battle between the Lions and Chargers, leading to Keenan Allen (11/175/2) posting his second monster showing of the year […]
The wide receiver story from last week had two chapters. The first was the high-scoring battle between the Lions and Chargers, leading to Keenan Allen (11/175/2) posting his second monster showing of the year while Amon-Ra St. Brown (8/165/1) finished fourth in fantasy points (30.50). The second verse came via the right arm of Dak Prescott. CeeDee Lamb (11/165/2) fell ten yards behind Allen, giving him the runner-up prize for the week. The rise of the Cowboys’ passing attack led to Brandin Cook (9/173/1) finishing third for the week. Six other wideouts scored between 21.00 and 26.50 fantasy points in PPR formats. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average after 10 weeks:
- Tyreek Hill (25.03)
- Keenan Allen (22.84)
- A.J. Brown (22.61)
- CeeDee Lamb (22.13)
- Stefon Diggs (20.28)
Also, before we get into the Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Elite Options
Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800)
The Dolphins’ passing offense sputtered in two challenging road games vs. Philadelphia (216/1) and Kansas City (193/1) in Week 7 and Week 9. But Hill still had a floor of eight catches while working closer to the line of scrimmage (11/88/1 and 8/62 – one 20-yard catch ~ 7.9 yards per reception). From Week 5 to Week 8 (8/181/1, 6/163/1, 11/88/1, and 8/112/1), he scored in each game, leading to 30.10 FPPG in DraftKings scoring. His top three scores in fantasy points (44.50, 30.70, and 32.10) came in odds weeks of the NFL schedule. Hill has double-digit targets in four consecutive starts (10, 15, 13, and 10).
Las Vegas continues to play better than expected defending wide receivers (6th – 109/1,318/7 on 173 targets). No team gained more than 175 yards from their wideouts. Their defense allowed 22 touchdowns (11 passing) over 105 possessions, with quarterbacks gaining 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Their success has been helped by a favorable pass schedule (Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVito, and Zack Wilson). Amon-Ra St. Brown (6/108) is the only wide receiver to gain more than 100 yards.
The Raiders will have their hands full defending the run vs. Miami, inviting some winning big plays off play-action passes for Hill. Their top three cornerbacks for Las Vegas allowed a high catch rate. But they’ve minimized the damage in big plays. Hill’s quickness and ability to get open should shine through in this matchup. I expect a minimum of one long score, most likely against Marcus Peters (29/287/3 on 32 targets – per PFF) due to his gambling mentality. On the downside, Hill must score 37.00 fantasy points to fill his salary bucket. Bet on his floor (26.70 fantasy points) while understanding that Miami is a much better offense at home.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,200)
Over the past three weeks, Dak Prescott upped his passing game, leading to 1,082 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 36.7 passes per game (31.7 over his first six starts). As a result, Lamb has three consecutive elite games (12/170/2, 11/191, and 11/165/2), thanks to a spike in his targets (14, 16, and 14). He finished 1st, 2nd, and 2nd in wide receiver scoring over this span. That lifted him to fourth (199.20 fantasy points) for the year. He is on pace to catch 128 passes for 1,981 yards and nine touchdowns. Last year, 24 of his 107 catches gained at least 20 yards. Lamb already gained 20 yards on 22 receptions in 2023.
Carolina has the fourth-best…
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Week 11 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 11 DFS: Running Back Report Brian Robinson surprised in the passing game (6/119/1) against Seattle, highlighted by a 51-yard catch and run for a touchdown, helping him to the top running back production (157 yards with one score and […]
Brian Robinson surprised in the passing game (6/119/1) against Seattle, highlighted by a 51-yard catch and run for a touchdown, helping him to the top running back production (157 yards with one score and six catches) in Week 10. Jahmyr Gibbs (26.20 fantasy points) finished second, giving him an explosive run over the last three weeks (82.70 fantasy points). A starting job and over 80% of the running back snaps for Devin Singletary (30/150/1 with one catch for 11 yards) led to him rounding out the trifecta. Finally, only three other running backs score more than 20.00 fantasy points – Austin Ekeler (21.50), Javonte Williams (21.00), and Christian McCaffrey (20.20). Here are the top five running backs by scoring average after 10 games:
- Christian McCaffrey (24.73)
- Raheem Mostert (19.07)
- Travis Etienne (18.92)
- Kenneth Walker (15.00)
- Rachaad White (14.83)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 11 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,300/FD – $10,000)
Nine games into 2023, McCaffrey only has one impact game (20/106/3 with seven catches for 71 yards and a touchdown) on his resume. His six high-floor outcomes (25.90, 22.50, 22.90, 23.60, 29.80, and 20.20) work well in the season-long contest but a more challenging piece to win with in the DFS market. A big lead by the 49ers vs. Jacksonville led to McCaffrey being on the field for 76% of their plays, coming after two high snaps games (100% and 97%). His scoring streak ended at 17 games in Week 10.
Tampa Bay comes into this matchup with the second-best defense vs. running backs (15.49 FPPG). No team scored more than 25.00 fantasy points from their backs in any game vs. the Bucs in 2023. Also, they allow 3.7 yards per rush, with running backs scoring only one touchdown (via the pass – 45/284/1 on 54 targets). Quarterbacks scored four times on the ground. However, the Eagles’ backs had the best success (30/173 with two catches for 13 yards).
McCaffrey has two data points that make him an against-the-grain option in Week 11. His salary requires 37+ fantasy points vs. a team that limits the damage in running back scoring. When the best player in the game is expected to be on a low number of rosters with the tools to post a monster showing on any given Sunday, he must be in the mix in the DFS market if possible…
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Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report
Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report Three of the top four tight ends in Week 8 finished first, second, and third in Week 10. T.J. Hockenson posted an elite game (11/134/1), propelling him over Travis Kelce in year-long rankings. Trey […]
Three of the top four tight ends in Week 8 finished first, second, and third in Week 10. T.J. Hockenson posted an elite game (11/134/1), propelling him over Travis Kelce in year-long rankings. Trey McBride (8/131) took home the silver medal, followed by George Kittle (3/116/1). No other tight end scored more than 16.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five players after 10 weeks ranked by scoring average in PPR formats:
- T.J. Hockenson (16.21)
- Travis Kelce (15.63)
- Sam LaPorta (13.16)
- Mark Andrews (13.11)
- George Kittle (11.81)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 11 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Options
George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,000)
In two of Kittle’s three best games, he only had four targets in each matchup. The first score was driven by touchdowns (3/67/3), and the second came from hitting on a 66-yard touchdown (3/116/1), with two other catches gaining at least 20 yards. His best opportunity (11 targets) came in a chaser game in Week 8 (9/149). Over his last three games, Kittle averaged 21.17 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring.
Tampa Bay sits 22nd vs. tight ends (53/514/2 on 78 targets). Their two touchdowns allowed came over the last three weeks, with Dalton Schultz drilling them for 10 catches for 130 yards and one touchdown. One other team (MIN – 11/67) had double targets, and five more offenses posted at least five catches.
Kittle has a higher salary than his overall chances (5.2 targets per game) compared to the best tight ends in the game. His yards per catch (16.0) create an edge, and he scored 11 times over his last 20 starts. Kittle is trending higher, but his impact value requires more targets. I view him as more of an option in a 49ers’ passing stack.
Sam LaPorta, DET (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700)
Over the first nine games, LaPorta has a definable trend in the DFS market. He scored four touchdowns over four matchups at home (5/63, 8/84/1, 3/47/2, and 8/57/1), leading to 18.28 fantasy points per game. Away from Detroit, LaPorta has yet to deliver a playable outcome (5/39, 4/56, 4/36, 6/52, and 4/40) despite having a floor of four catches. Over his nine starts, LaPorta averages 7.1 targets and 10.1 yards per catch.
Chicago struggled vs. tight ends in four contests (KC – 8/78/1, WAS – 12/105/1, LAC – 5/52/2, and NO – 10/65/2). They rank 27th in tight end defense (65/516/6 on 80 targets). Tight ends gain short yards per catch (7.9), which is overcome by a high catch rate (81.3).
His resume at home and scoring ability give him a chance to…
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Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The theme for last week in the DFS market was the Houston Texans’ passing game, highlighted by the success of Tank Dell (6/116/2 – 1st) and Noah Brown (6/153/1 – 3rd). CeeDee Lamb (11/191) […]
The theme for last week in the DFS market was the Houston Texans’ passing game, highlighted by the success of Tank Dell (6/116/2 – 1st) and Noah Brown (6/153/1 – 3rd). CeeDee Lamb (11/191) finished second, giving him explosive stats (23/349/2 on 30 targets) over the past two weeks. Three other wideouts (Amari Cooper – 24.90, Stefon Diggs – 22.60, and Diontae Johnson – 22.00) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:
- Tyreek Hill (25.03)
- A.J. Brown (22.61)
- Stefon Diggs (21.82)
- Keenan Allen (20.63)
- CeeDee Lamb (19.96)
Also, before we get into the Week 9 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $8,800/FD – $9,000)
Since posting two impact games in Week 2 (8/111/2) and Week 3 (18/215), Allen averaged 14.76 fantasy points (30/318/2 on 44 targets). He remains on an elite pace (132/1,530/9 on 176 targets). The Chargers’ wideout had 66 catches for 768 yards and four touchdowns on 88 targets over the first three games, followed by 60 catches for 744 yards and two touchdowns on 95 targets over their last five matchups.
The Lions rank 14th vs. wide receivers (98/1,174/7 on 163 targets). Seattle (20/171/2), GB (15/210/1), and CAR (19/197/2) had the most success. Wideouts have a low catch rate (60.1) while gaining 12.0 yards per catch. CB Brian Branch (17/133/3 on 24 targets – per PFF) allows short yards per catch (7.8).
Allen has the edge in experience in his WR/CB matchup, and he is the Chargers’ top target by a wide margin. His salary requires more than 34.00 fantasy points, so Allen needs a high-scoring game with multiple touchdowns to be viable in Week 10. I view him as overpriced, and Los Angeles hasn’t shown the passing for him pay off in this matchup.
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,300)
The Bills held Chase to four catches for 41 yards on eight targets while playing through a back issue after landing awkwardly on an incomplete pass. Cincinnati lists him as questionable for this week’s game. He was on the field for 90% of their snaps last week, suggesting that Chase should play on Sunday. His best value this year came in Week 3 (12/141), Week 5 (15/192/3), and Week 8 (10/100/1). Over his other five starts (5/39, 5/31, 7/73, 6/80, and 4/41), he failed to score more than 15.00 fantasy points.
Houston has the fourth-best…
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Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre […]
The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre Swift (9.4) fell short of expectations in fantasy points. Rachaad White took advantage of his favorable matchup to post his best outing (20/73/2 and 4/46) of his young career. Only four other backs (Rhamondre Stevenson – 22.90, Josh Jacobs – 21.80, Austin Ekeler – 21.00, and Keaton Mitchell – 20.80) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
- Travis Etienne (20.49)
- Raheem Mostert (19.07)
- Derrick Henry (15.34)
- Josh Jacobs (14.56)
Gus Edwards has been the top-scoring back over the last three weeks (21.40, 29.40, and 17.20).
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Elite Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,500)
For any daily gamer starting their roster with McCaffrey, they tied up 18.4% of the salary at DraftKings and 17.5% at FanDuel. He averages 26.43 and 23.05 fantasy points at those sites, giving him a floor of 2.87X and 2.19X if McCaffrey hits his scoring average. His only impact game (48.70 fantasy points) came in Week 4 vs. the Cardinals at home. He scored at least 22.50 fantasy points in five other matchups, with his second-highest output (29.80) coming in Week 8.
McCaffrey gains his edge by scoring touchdowns (13 over eight games). He reached paydirt in 17 consecutive contests. Over his last two starts, the 49ers had him on the field for 98.2% of their snaps.
The Jaguars are about league average in running back defense (15th – 19.68 FPPG), with their down games in fantasy points allowed coming in Week 6 (29.40) and Week 7 (30.70). Over the last three games, running backs have been productive in catches (1IND – 11/84, NO – 12/91, and PIT – 9/61) while receiving 38 combined targets. Jacksonville allowed 3.6 yards per rush (16.9 attempts per game by running backs). No team has scored more than one rushing touchdown in a game (four total by running backs).
For McCaffrey to pay off in Week 10, the Jaguars’ defense would have to have their worst day of the season. Also, the 49ers’ top back would have to score almost all of the team’s fantasy points. On the positive side, he could have his best day catching the ball based on the direction of Jacksonville’s defense in this area over the past three weeks. McCaffrey has the highest floor in the game while forcing a DFS player to be creative when filling out the backend of their roster.
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Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report
Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report Last week, six tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, led by Dalton Schultz (10/130/1). Cade Otton (24.00) finished second, followed by Cole Kmet (23.50). The best tight end over the past three […]
Last week, six tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, led by Dalton Schultz (10/130/1). Cade Otton (24.00) finished second, followed by Cole Kmet (23.50). The best tight end over the past three weeks has been Taysom Hill (20.12 FPPG). Here are the top five players by scoring average after nine weeks in PPR formats:
- Travis Kelce (15.63)
- T.J. Hockenson (14.63)
- Mark Andrews (13.86)
- Sam LaPorta (13.80)
- Cole Kmet (12.06)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 10 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Options
Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300)
Even in a blowout game against the Seahawks, Andrews caught a season-high nine passes for 80 yards on 10 targets. He averaged 16.95 fantasy points in PPR formats over his last six starts, highlighted by two winning outputs (25.00 and 22.30). On the downside, Andrews averaged only 6.9 targets. His best game (5/80/2) came in Week 4 vs. the Browns.
Cleveland has the best tight end defense (19/155/2 on 28 targets). They held seven opponents to fewer than 6.00 fantasy points (CIN – 3/17, PIT – 1/2, TEN – 3/7, SF – 1/1, IND – 1/-6, SEA – 2/32, and ARI – 3/22). The Browns played well defensively in three games (3, 3, and 0 points allowed) while showing much more weakness on the road (88 points over three matchups). They have 26 sacks, requiring the tight end to help in pass protection on some plays.
The Ravens’ offense has been exceptional over their last three games (106 points), leading to 13 touchdowns and five field goals over 34 possessions. Baltimore runs the ball well, especially in scoring (15 touchdowns). Andrews will have some chances at the goal line, but he needs a wide open game to fill his salary bucket. Not ideal for his salary, but I can’t dismiss him.
George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,1000/FD – $6,300)
A chaser game in Week 8 led to Kittle setting season-highs in catches (9), receiving yards (149), and targets (11), lifting him to sixth in tight end scoring (94.50 fantasy points). Over eight starts, he has been a losing investment in four matchups (3/19, 3/30, 1/9, and 1/1) while receiving 12 combined targets in those games. His best three days came at home (7/90, 3/67/3, and 9/149). The injury to Deebo Samuel bumped up his value over the two previous weeks.
The Jaguars rank 25th…
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