DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17 The highlight of the final Thursday game of the 2023 fantasy season is that the game gets to kick off championship week. While last week’s Saints vs. Rams tilt hit the over, FullTime Fantasy‘s […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17

The highlight of the final Thursday game of the 2023 fantasy season is that the game gets to kick off championship week. While last week’s Saints vs. Rams tilt hit the over, FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17 features the Browns hosting the NFL’s most futile offense in the lowly New York Jets.

16th-year pro Joe Flacco has been a revelation for the Browns. Cleveland has started four different signal-callers this season. However, the Browns are in contention for the AFC’s top seed with a nifty 10-5 record.

Meanwhile, the Jets have also had to play the quarterback carousel. But Robert Saleh has not enjoyed anywhere near as much success. At least not on offense. Saleh’s defense ranks third in the NFL.

Saleh does keep his club ready to compete and they will undoubtedly be ready to play spoiler.

New York opened as 6.5-point underdogs and the total was a ghastly 35 points.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
New York Jets 32 31 28 30 30
Cleveland Browns 13 20 11 28 10

New York’s season effectively ended after four snaps. After losing Aaron Rodgers, the Jets have struggled to mount any kind of credible offense. Zach Wilson fared about as well as expected before losing – and regaining- the starting job. Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian have also contributed to the futility.

Siemian will make his second start this week and faces a tough task. Cleveland boasts the NFL’s No. 1 defense. The Browns lead the league in passing defense, interception rate, third-down efficiency, and fewest yards per play.

Meanwhile, Flacco has resurrected a stagnant offense. Cleveland has averaged 29 points per game in Flacco’s three starts. However, the Jets have the No. 2 pass defense and won’t allow the big plays that the Browns produced in Houston.

Points will be at a premium in this one. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean this game is a fantasy football fade.

New York Offense

How will Thursday’s Jets vs. Browns game go?

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Joe Burow
DFS

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bengals – 2 Over/Under: 47.5 The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 […]

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bengals – 2

Over/Under: 47.5

The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 is a return to the Super Bowl while bringing home a championship to their fans. In the offseason, Cincinnati tried to upgrade their tight end position (Irv Smith). To continue their rise in the AFC, their defense must stop offenses in the most critical part of the game – the fourth quarter.

It’s showtime for Deshaun Watson after the Browns paid him $230 million in 2022. Cleveland has a stud running back with Nick Chubb, with improving depth and upside at wide receiver – Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman, and David Bell. In addition, the Browns have a developing tight end (David Njoku).

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow

  • Last year, Burrow scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four of his first 12 starts (35.50, 44.05, 32.25, and 32.90). The Browns kept him in check (17.80 and 19.95 fantasy points) in his two matchups.
  • In his rookie season, he posted two stellar games (335/3 and 440/4) against Cleveland.
  • The Browns had the best quarterback fantasy defense (15.00 FPPG) in 2022, one notch above Cincinnati’s pass defense.
  • The key for Burrow in this matchup is a longer pass window.
  • His calf issue appears to be healed, but the fantasy market needs to see him in game action before trusting that Burrow is on top of his game.
  • His matchup suggests fading him, but Cinci had too many receiving weapons to avoid Burrow. In addition, the Browns should score in this matchup.
  • He needs at least 300 yards with three touchdowns to be in the mix in the daily games in Week 1.

 

Joe Mixon

  • Mixon’s ticket came in only once last season (Week 6 – 55.10 fantasy points), helping me win $250,000 at DraftKings. He scored between 17.00 and 21.50 fantasy points) in six matchups, none of which would support his current salary.
  • The Bengals will rotate in a second running back, but Mixon may have a more significant role out of the gate.
  • Burrow will use his running backs in the passing game close to the goal line – 103/796/7 on 132 targets. Their backs had the third most catches (103) in the league in 2022.
  • Three times his salary seems reasonable, leaving some upside if Mixon hits on a second touchdown or a bunch of receptions.
  • Viable rotational running back upside in Week 1.

 

Ja’Marr Chase

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Nick Chubb
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Cleveland Browns Outlook

2023  Cleveland Browns Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023  Cleveland Browns Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Cleveland Browns Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Deshaun Watson

Over his final three seasons with the Texans, Watson went 25-22 with two winning years (11-5 and 10-5). His completion rate (68.7) and yards per pass attempt (8.3) were exceptional, but he ranked below the league average in pass attempts per game (32.9). Watson had his best fantasy season in 2020 (led the NFL in passing yards – 4,823) while delivering 36 combined touchdowns. He was active in the run game from 2018 to 2020 (99/551/5, 82/413/7, and 90/44/3). His most significant obstacle to success came via sacks (62, 44, and 49) during this span.

The Browns ranked poorly in passing attempts (539 – 19th, 501 – 28th, 520 – 28th, and 540 – 21st) and passing yards (3,847 – 22nd, 3,701 – 27th, 3,619 – 27th, and 3710 – 23rd) over the past four seasons. 

Watson wasn’t worth the investment by Cleveland last season, putting their coaching staff on the hit seat in 2023 if they don’t make the playoffs. He had 31 or fewer passes in five of his starts, leading to fewer than 170 yards passing in four games and only two matchups with more than one score. Watson held form in the run game (36/175/1) but had weakness in his completion rate (58.2 – 67.8 over his previous 1,748 pass attempts) and yards per pass attempt (6.5 – 8.3 before 2022).

Fantasy Outlook: Cleveland upgraded their wide receiving corps in the offseason by trading for Elijah Moore and drafting Cedric Tillman. Amari Cooper (78/1,160/9), Donovan Peoples-Jones (61/839/3), and David Njoku (58/628/4) played well in 2022, giving Watson plenty of firepower to move the ball. His career path suggests that 4,500 combined yards and 30 touchdowns are a reasonable floor. If Tillman and Moore play well, Watson should beat his early draft ranking at quarterback (9th).

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

Over his 49 games in college, Thompson-Robinson passed for 10,695 yards with 88 touchdowns and 36 interceptions. He helped his value with his production (471/1,828/28) on the ground. His completion rate (69.6) moved to an elite area in his senior year at USC. Thompson-Robinson scored 39 times in 2022 with a combined 3,801 yards over 13 starts.

Other Options: Joshua Dobbs, Kellen Mond

— Running Backs —

Other than rushing attempts (450), the Browns’ running backs regressed in rushing yards (2,104), yards per rush (4.7), touchdowns (18), catches (67), receiving yards (464), and targets (88) from 2021. Their backs gained a combined 2,568 yards, leading to 25.4 FPPG in PPR formats. Cleveland should run the ball well over 500 times this year, but Deshaun Watson will steal touchdowns and many carries.

Nick Chubb

Over five seasons with the Browns, Chubb has been a phenomenal running back based on his yards per rush (5.2, 5.0, 5.6, 5.5, and 5.0). He was a workhorse back in 2019 (334 touches), leading to 1,772 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 36 catches. 

Chubb missed seven games in 2020 and 2021 while also losing touches to a second rotational back. He averaged 17.7 touches in 2021 (17.2 in 2020) while ranking him 13th in running back scoring (216.30) in PPR formats. Surprisingly, Chubb was a much better player on the road (810 combined yards with six touchdowns and 11 catches over seven games). He gained more than 100 yards rushing in five matchups (once at home).

Last season, Chubb posted the best year of his career (282.40 fantasy points – 6th), leading to new tops in rush attempts (302), rushing yards (1,525), and touchdowns (13). He gained more than 100 combined yards in 11 games, with seven of those outcomes coming over the first eight games. His season ended with no rushing scores over six consecutive matchups when Deshaun Watson took over at quarterback. Cleveland gave him less than half of their running back pass-catching opportunity (27/239/1).

Fantasy Outlook: With Kareem Hunt off the roster, Chubb looks poised to push his stats higher. His ceiling will remain limited in the passing game, and Deshaun Watson will snip some rushing scores. On the positive side, a better quarterback should lead to more offense by the Browns. Let’s shoot for 350 touches for 1,850 yards with 14 scores and 30 catches. Chubb is the seventh-ranked running back selected in the early draft season in the high-stakes market.

Jerome Ford

Cleveland added Ford in the fifth round in 2021 after having his best season (215/1,319 with 21 catches for 220 yards and one score) in college. He had a limited opportunity over his first three years (696 combined yards with 11 touchdowns and ten catches). 

His speed is better than the league average at the running back position. Ford runs with an upright style with the ability to sidestep defenders and break tackles. He will take what the defense will give him while having the gear to finish long runs with scores if given a lane. With more experience, Ford will develop into a better runner.

Fantasy Outlook: The backup running back position is up for grabs in 2023. Ford is the front-runner to take over the Kareem Hunt role in the Browns’ offense…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BROWNS IN 2023?

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2021 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks
Season Long – All Sports

2021 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks

Welcome to our 2020 Fantasy Football Team Outlook series. Check out our statistical and in-depth analysis for EVERY player on EVERY NFL roster!

We’re rolling out our 2021 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks and who better to do it than high stakes fantasy football legend Shawn Childs. Shawn has been a high-stakes Fantasy Football legend since 2004 where he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). Childs has competed and won six-figures in all different formats – auctions, draft championships, main events, and high-dollar leagues. We dare you to find an expert who knows the NFL player pool better than Shawn Childs — it can’t be done!

AFC East

  • Buffalo Bills – One of the hottest fantasy connections in 2020 was Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs. Will they repeat, who will be favorite target #2 (Beasley, Davis or Sanders) and can they find an every down player in 2nd year RB Zach Moss? … To continue reading this article, you must have an active subscription to our Seasonlong Fantasy Subscription.

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Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield
Season Long – All Sports

2019 Fantasy Football: Cleveland Browns Expanded Team Outlook

In this Cleveland Browns Expanded Team Outlook, Shawn Childs provides meticulous & in-depth Fantasy Football breakdowns of the entire franchise.

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