2023 Dallas Cowboys Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Dallas Cowboys Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Dak Prescott

In 2019 and 2021, Prescott attempted 596 passes in both seasons over 16 games. He improved by 22 completions in 2021 but regressed by 453 passing yards. Prescott finished with the best completion rate (68.8) of his career with a new high in passing touchdowns (37). He ended the year with a step back in running value (48/146/1) after being much more productive in this area over his first 64 games (241/1,221/21). When at his best, Prescott had a floor of three touchdowns in nine starts (416/3, 244/3, 223/4, 308/3, 455/3, 301/3, 351/4, 246/3, and 295/5). He delivered 1,864 passing yards and eight touchdowns in his other seven matchups. 

After an off game in Week 1 (134/0 with one interception) last season, Prescott missed five starts with a broken right thumb. His year ended with the most interceptions (15) of his career over 12 matchups, with further regression in his yards per pass attempt (7.3). Prescott only had a slight fall off in his completion rate (66.2 – 68.6 over his previous 21 contests) while repeating his value in the run game (45/182/1). Over his final 13 games (including the postseason), he had a completion rate of 70% or higher in eight matchups, but Prescott only passed for more than 300 yards in two starts (347/3 and 305/4). He averaged 33.1 passes over his 14 games, compared to 37.3 in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook: Other than an excellent growth season by CeeDee Lamb (107/1,359/9), the Cowboys’ receiving corps failed to match preseason expectations. Michael Gallup (39/424/4) was a shell of his previous self, and rookie Jalen Tolbert (2/12) didn’t develop into a viable receiving option. Adding Brandin Cooks gives Prescott a proven veteran wideout, but he also lost his top tight end threat (Dalton Schultz). My early thought is that Dallas should average close to 250 passing yards per game, with Prescott finishing with a floor of 30 combined touchdowns (on pace for 34 in 2021). He is the 12th ranked quarterback in early June in the high-stake market.

Cooper Rush

Over his first four seasons with Dallas, Rush was only on the field for eight games, leading to him completing 31 of his 50 passes for 424 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. He kept the Cowboys in the playoff hunt by winning four of his five starts when Dak Prescott was out with his thumb injury.

Despite his winning success, Rush was only a game manager over his first four contests (775/4 with no interceptions). When facing the Eagles, he was overmatched in Week 6 (18-for-38 for 181 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions).

Fantasy Outlook: Rush remains the top backup quarterback for Dallas, but he will see minimal time again in 2023.

Other Options: Will Grier

— Running Backs —

The combination of Ezekiel Elliott (968 combined yards) and Tony Pollard (1,378 combined yards) gave Dallas plenty of production in overall yards (2,346) while adding 24 combined touchdowns. Their backs set three-year highs in rushing attempts (477), rushing yards (2,110), and touchdowns (26), but they were less active in the passing game (62/526/3 on 85 targets). The Cowboys running backs averaged 28.33 FPPG in PPR formats.

Tony Pollard

Dallas gave Pollard 169 touches in 2021, but he did leave some stats on the table by missing two games with a December left foot injury (plantar fascia). Over his final three games (including the postseason), he struggled to run the ball (15/57) with seven catches for 77 yards. Pollard broke loose in Week 2 (140 combined yards with one score and three catches) while gaining over 100 combined yards in one other matchup (14/75 and four catches for 28 yards). From the Cowboys’ second game to Week 15 (12 contests), he averaged 12.2 touches, leading to 905 yards with two touchdowns and 30 catches or 11.04 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Pollard was frustrating to manage over the first five games last season due to his up-and-down usage by the Cowboys. He had empty production in Week 1 (22 combined yards and two catches) and Week 4 (eight combined yards and one catch) while flashing his explosiveness over his other three contests (289 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches on 34 touches). When given a chance to start in two games midseason, Pollard played at a high level (14/131/3 and 22/115/1) with four combined catches and 29 yards. Dallas gave him an uptick in chances over the next six weeks (83/367/3 with 24 catches for 237 yards and three scores), but ankle and leg injuries led to a missed game and a step back in play over his final three contests (28/118 with five catches for 23 yards). 

Fantasy Outlook: The excitement for Pollard is brewing in the early fantasy draft season based on his ranking (10th). He finished last season as the ninth-highest-scoring running back (248.80) in PPR formats despite averaging 14.5 touches. Dallas will rotate in a second running back, but Pollard should see his opportunity improve by at least 15%. I’ll set his early bar at 225 rushes for 1,100 yards with a dozen scores and 50 catches for 450 more yards. His only negative is back-to-back late-season injuries, with the latter requiring surgery to repair a broken left leg last January.

Deuce Vaughn

Over three seasons at Kansas State, Vaughn gained 4,371 combined yards with 47 touchdowns and 116 catches over 37 games. He had a high-volume opportunity in 2021 (284 touches) and 2022 (335 touches), showcasing his durability…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE COWBOYS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

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