2024 draft strategy

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2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview

July 22, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview Tampa Bay entered the 2023 season with the fifth-lowest Super Bowl odds. However, Todd Bowles coached the Buccaneers to their second-consecutive NFC South title and an upset win in the playoffs in Philadelphia. After […]

2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview

Tampa Bay entered the 2023 season with the fifth-lowest Super Bowl odds. However, Todd Bowles coached the Buccaneers to their second-consecutive NFC South title and an upset win in the playoffs in Philadelphia. After re-signing Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, the Bucs are running it back in 2024, which is great news for fantasy football fans.

Mayfield set career-high numbers in every notable passing category under the tutelage of Dave Canales. Canales parlayed that into a gig leading the division-rival Panthers. In his place, Bowles hired Liam Cohen from Kentucky. The change of play-callers is a major concern for Mayfield.

Another issue is relying on a player who posts career-best numbers in a contract year. Mayfield progressively got worse in his first five seasons before exploding in 2023. Rather than expecting a repeat of his QB11 finish, fantasy managers should view Mayfield as merely a modest QB2 to target in Superflex formats.

RB Rachaad White thrived in his second season. White posted overall RB4 numbers thanks to his receiving prowess. He ranked fourth among all running backs with 64 grabs and produced double-digit fantasy points in 15-of-19 games. The Bucs added Oregon RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round, which makes White’s volume share less certain.

Retaining Mike Evans was hugely important for Tampa. Evans (31 in August) posted his 10th-straight campaign with 1,000-plus receiving yards. His 13 touchdown grabs also tied for the league lead. Entering his 11th NFL season, Evans remains a consistent producer with an excellent rapport with his quarterback. View the veteran wideout as an excellent fantasy option in the third or fourth round.

Chris Godwin gave Tampa a pair of top-20 fantasy wide receivers. Godwin has topped 125 targets and 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons. Yet, the 28-year-old veteran continues to be overlooked on draft day. He should once again bring a positive return on investment in 2024.

Trey Palmer hauled in 39-of-68 targets during his rookie year but will have to compete with talented third-round rookie wideout Jalen McMillan for WR3 duties. 55.4% of Palmer’s 2023 routes came from the slot, an area that McMillian is projected to play.

Cade Otton led all tight ends with a massive 96.5% snap share. However, he ranked 21st with a 12.2% target share and scored fewer than 10 PPR points in Tampa’s final nine regular-season games. Unless Cohen makes drastic changes to Tampa’s offensive philosophy, Otton is merely a low-upside fantasy TE2.

There are a lot of questions about Tampa’s ability to carry over their surprising success from last season. However, the Bucs boast a pair of solid wideouts and a young running back worth prioritizing in the early rounds.

Quarterbacks

QB BAKER MAYFIELD – BYE WEEK FILL-IN

Everything clicked for Mayfield in Tampa, resulting in his finest pro season and a lucrative new $100 million contract. Tampa also re-signed Mike Evans, which does well for the club’s 2024 prospects. However, Dave Canales is now in Carolina, which leaves the Bucs’ offense in the hands of a first-time offensive coordinator. Even in his career-rejuvenating 2023 showing, Mayfield only ranked 18th in fantasy points per game. The Browns, Panthers, and Rams have all let Mayfield walk and he was never the top choice for the Bucs. Last season was a good story but it would not be a surprise to see Mayfield regress. ADVICE: Likely to be overdrafted QB2…

 

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Season Long – All Sports

2024 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview

July 21, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview The 2023 Saints were top-10 in points scored and allowed but came up just short of the NFC playoffs at 9-8. In his third season at the helm, Dennis Allen will need to get […]

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2024 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Preview

July 21, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Preview 2023 will go down as one of the most disastrous seasons for any franchise in NFL history. After going all in to acquire the top overall pick, Frank Reich’s tenure lasted all of 11 games, […]

2024 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Preview

2023 will go down as one of the most disastrous seasons for any franchise in NFL history. After going all in to acquire the top overall pick, Frank Reich’s tenure lasted all of 11 games, and top pick Bryce Young posted one of the worst rookie campaigns since the 2000 NFL season. Now missing their own No. 1 selection in 2024, Dave Canales has a tough task trying to turn around one of the worst rosters in football.

Young was unequivocally awful in Year One, averaging the fewest fantasy points per start for any signal-caller who started more than 12 games. Coaching, lack of supporting cast, and a poor offensive line played a big part, but the Panthers ranked dead last in passing and total offense. Young ranked 40th in adjusted completion rate and surpassed 250 yards once all season.

It is too soon to write Young off, but his career trajectory is in trouble. He is only a middling dynasty QB2 in Superflex leagues and should be left on the waiver wire in all other formats.

The Panthers had more success running the ball. Carolina ranked 20th in rushing, led by Chuba Hubbard’s 1,135 scrimmage yards and team-high five scores. However, second-round rookie RB Jonathon Brooks was the first running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft and will be the heavy favorite to lead the backfield in touches when he is healthy.

Surrounding Young with better weapons was paramount for Canales. In March, the Panthers acquired disgruntled WR Diontae Johnson from the Steelers. Johnson was a target magnet in his first four seasons and enters 2024 motivated to ball out in a contract season.

Johnson will likely play from the perimeter as incumbent slot man Adam Thielen ranked fourth in the NFL with 82 slot targets. Carolina’s top two wideouts should warrant enough targets to be fantasy-relevant as potential flex options.

Carolina traded back up into the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft to select promising South Carolina WR Xavier Legette. The No. 32 pick has sub-4.4 speed and projects to be a perimeter threat once he can consistently defeat press coverage.

At tight end, Carolina will stick with a committee approach that is far from fantasy-friendly. Hayden Hurst and Tommy Tremble led the group with a meager 32 targets. Fourth-round rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders has a real shot at leading the way in 2024, mixing in with Tremble.

Carolina is in a full-blown rebuild with more questions than answers. That makes the Panthers an undesirable roster to target in fantasy football drafts. Some mid-to-late-round options offer some volume appeal on this roster, but Bryce Young must make huge strides in his second season.

Quarterbacks

QB BRYCE YOUNG – DYNASTY ONLY

Any way you look at it, Bryce Young was horrendous as a rookie. Young failed to eclipse 200 yards in 11 of his 16 starts. Young was limited to single-digit fantasy outings 11 times and ranked dead last with an appalling 5.5 yards per attempt. A new regime in Carolina will try to right the ship but it won’t be easy. The Panthers are projected to win the fewest games in the league. Fortunatley, reinforcements are on the way with Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, Jonathon Brooks, and Ja’Tavion Sanders. But even with a new staff and supporting cast, Young should be viewed as a total fade except for patient dynasty managers. ADVICE: Not a reliable QB2…

 

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Season Long – All Sports

2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

July 20, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview Mercifully, the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta is over. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, this time without the interim label. Accompanying Morris from Los Angeles will be new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. His task is […]

2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

Mercifully, the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta is over. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, this time without the interim label. Accompanying Morris from Los Angeles will be new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. His task is simple: actually use the abundance of skill position talent the Falcons have accrued.

Having a quality leader is paramount to accomplishing that goal. Enter new QB Kirk Cousins, a huge improvement over Desmond Ridder. Cousins signed a four-deal with $100 million guaranteed after posting top-10 fantasy points per game numbers in each of his last four campaigns.

Since becoming a starter, Cousins has averaged 4,264 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season. Cousins gives the Falcons their best quarterback since prime Matt Ryan. With the weapons around him, Cousins should once again be one of the top fantasy football value targets. However, he is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury and was ‘stunned’ when the club used the No.8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Michael Penix. It was a questionable move and worth monitoring all summer.

Bijan Robinson was given more than 15 carries just four times in his rookie season, yet still posted over RB8 numbers. That inexplicable lack of usage will change with Zac Robinson calling plays. Zac Robinson comes from a Rams’ system that force-fed their lead back more than any other team. Fantasy managers fortunate enough to draft should be equally excited. B-Rob has the talent to be the No. 1 overall fantasy option in 2024.

The biggest impact Kirk Cousins will have is on an Atlanta passing attack that ranked 26th last season. Cousins has a long history of heavily targeting his No. 1 wideout. This will be huge for Drake London, who should top 130 targets for the first time in his career.

Atlanta also spent big to upgrade one of the thinnest receiving corps in football. Darnell Mooney is a downfield speedster who will benefit from Cousins’s deep-ball accuracy. Moore will function closer to the line of scrimmage, taking the occasional handoff and acting as an outlet option.

The biggest benefactor of the Cousins signing might be TE Kyle Pitts. Despite running only 14.9% of his routes as an in-line tight end, Pitts was criminally underutilized by the previous regime. Pitts should continue to see plenty of reps from the slot and perimeter and is a good bet to see a big boost in target share.

Atlanta has top-10 talent at all three skill positions, giving them a lot of leverage and depth for a creative play-caller. This team should get involved in several “track meet” types of contests. Fantasy managers should not hesitate to target the new dirty birds.

Quarterbacks

QB KIRK COUSINS – QUALITY BACKUP

Because he’s been so consistently productive, averaging over 4,263 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season since becoming a starter, Kirk Cousins has been one of the top fantasy values annually. But a torn Achilles and a change of address to Atlanta complicate his 2024 status. As does the baffling choice to draft Michael Penix Jr. We know Cousins can sling it. He’s posted QB1 fantasy points per game numbers in three of the past four seasons. The Falcons also boast some intriguing skill-position talent and the league’s easiest strength of schedule. A healthy Cousins can be an elite fantasy option but fantasy managers have to mitigate significant risk this season. ADVICE: Risk/reward QB2…

 

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2024 Tennessee Titans Fantasy Preview

July 19, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Tennessee Titans Fantasy Preview A new era dawns in Tennessee. The Titans’ surprising dismissal of Mike Vrabel opens the door for Brian Callahan to begin his NFL coaching career. It’s a daunting challenge for Callahan, who takes over a […]

2024 Tennessee Titans Fantasy Preview

A new era dawns in Tennessee. The Titans’ surprising dismissal of Mike Vrabel opens the door for Brian Callahan to begin his NFL coaching career. It’s a daunting challenge for Callahan, who takes over a team that bottomed out in 2023. Tenneesse ranked 29th in passing last season and allowed their star RB to leave.

The process begins with sophomore signal caller Will Levis.”My relationship with (Will), his relationship with me and Nick (Holz) and (QBs coach) Bo (Hardegree) is going to be really a critical factor in our success,” Callahan said about Levis. Having the confidence of your new head coach is promising, but Levis struggled as a rookie.

After a monumental NFL debut, Levis went 2-6 as the starter, averaging 207 passing yards per game. Levis completed just 58.4% of his attempts and tossed four touchdowns in his final seven starts. These weren’t unexpected growing pains for the 2023 second-rounder, but Levis has a lot to prove before he becomes a fantasy option.

Fortunately, the Titans made significant investments to surround their young QB with a talented supporting cast. The biggest splash was signing WR Calvin Ridley to a four-year $92 million deal. Ridley (76/1,016/8) was a top-20 fantasy wideout last season and gives Tennessee a pair of outstanding perimeter wideouts with DeAndre Hopkins.

Callahan’s offenses in Cincinnati were productive enough to field a pair of solid receivers annually. If Callahan can coach up Levis, Hopkins, and Ridley should each command a target share north of 25% and contend for WR2 numbers.

Treylon Burks has been limited to 22 games in two seasons and his career arch is trending toward bust. Only 31% of Burks’s routes came from the slot in 2023, making it hard to envision him making an impact there. Kyle Phillips (89% slot rate) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 52%) will mix in as auxiliary pieces.

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo ranked 15th with 54 grabs a year ago. However, Okonkwo was featured far closer to the line of scrimmage and only scored one TD. His volume should be fine but the third-year tight end is merely a solid TE2 for fantasy purposes.

With Derrick Henry in Baltimore, the Titans signed Tony Pollard to take over. Pollard was a significant disappointment in 2023 and it is difficult to foresee him improving his fantasy output behind a transitioning offensive line. Additionally, Pollard will split touches with second-year runner Tyjae Spears, who ranked ninth at the position with 70 targets last season in a reserve role.

Tennesse’s rebuild is just beginning and Will Levis is still a major question mark. Despite the presence of some solid players, that makes the Titans a risky bet on draft day.

Quarterbacks

QB WILL LEVIS – BYE WEEK FILL-IN

Outside of his monumental debut in Week 8, Will Levis had a forgettable rookie season. In his other eight starts, Levis threw for four touchdowns, four interceptions, and finished outside of the weekly top 20 five times. The good news is that the Titans have fully invested in Levis as their starter and spent significant draft capital and free-agent money surrounding him with supportive talent. Levis led the NFL with an 11.1 average depth of target, so expect the new regime to scheme up ways to improve his efficiency. Tennessee has a favorable schedule, so a Year Two jump isn’t out of the question. However, Levis is well off the fantasy starting radar. ADVICE: Low-end QB2…

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Season Long – All Sports

2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview

July 19, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview The 30th season in Jacksonville Jaguars history sees the club at a crossroads. After an 8-3 start, the team lost five of their final six to miss the playoffs. With the division-rival Texans surging and […]

2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview

The 30th season in Jacksonville Jaguars history sees the club at a crossroads. After an 8-3 start, the team lost five of their final six to miss the playoffs. With the division-rival Texans surging and facing a tough schedule, Doug Pederson has his work cut out in 2024.

QB Trevor Lawrence saw his numbers dip slightly in 2023. Lawrence rushed for a career-best 339 yards but his passing efficiency and production declined. He also missed the first game of his career, resulting in Lawrence finishing outside the top 12 fantasy scorers after finishing as QB7 in 2022.

Still, Lawrence is a good runner who will produce 4,000 passing yards and will be in a good position to challenge for fantasy QB1 production again. Drafters will also benefit from a slight dip in T-Law’s ADP.

The loss of Jacksonville’s top receiver (Calvin Ridley) will hurt. Enter Gabe Davis, who signed a three-year $39 million deal to act as the Jags’ main perimeter and deep threat. Davis was an erratic producer in Buffalo, with five 20-plus point games interspersed with four outings with zero points. The Jaguars and fantasy managers will need Pederson to unlock consistent targets for Davis to come anywhere near Ridley’s production.

Christian Kirk should reclaim his role as Jacksonville’s top wideout. Kirk missed five starts and only eclipsed 100-plus yards twice last season. With Ridley’s 22.4% target share now available, Kirk is a good bet to surpass 100 targets. Kirk is an excellent mid-round value.

After trading down, Jacksonville also added talented LSU rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. to the fold. Thomas has an outstanding blend of size (6-3, 209) and speed and is in play for deep-ball shots.

TE Evan Engram led the club in targets and target share while leading all NFL tight ends with 114 receptions. That insane volume led to Engram posting TE2 numbers in PPR formats. However, he’s unlikely to repeat his position-leading 143 targets with the added target competition.

RB Travis Etienne posted overall RB3 numbers thanks to a career-best 12 touchdowns. After surpassing five yards per carry in 2022, Etienne struggled to 3.8 yards per tote last season. Volume (325 touches ranked third) and that red-zone prowess were significant factors in his strong fantasy showing.

Pederson has indicated that D’Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby will be more involved in 2024. Additionally, fifth-round rookie Keiland Robinson adds depth. If these ancillary weapons are more involved it will be hard for Etienne to replicate last year’s production.

From a fantasy perspective, the Jaguars have quality options at every position but lack depth. There’s plenty of appeal but a Jags stack should be approached with caution.

Quarterbacks

QB TREVOR LAWRENCE – SOLID/SAFE PICK

After a rough start, Trevor Lawrence had five weekly QB1 finishes in his final seven starts to post his second consecutive top-12 fantasy season. Although the passing numbers aren’t overwhelming, Lawrence bolsters his value by averaging a healthy 19.3 rushing yards per game with 11 TD runs in three seasons. Lawrence’s fourth season sees him at a crossroads. He hasn’t developed into the superstar prospect many considered him and the Jaguars are just 20-30 during Lawrence’s career. However, he’s been a solid, if unspectacular fantasy option. Jacksonville will need inconsistent Gabe Davis to step up big in place of the departed Calvin Ridley if Lawrecne is going to post his third QB1 finish in four years. ADVICE: Decent target with limited ceiling…

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2024 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview

July 18, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview There was a lot of adversity in Indianapolis in 2023. Still, the Colts were a dropped pass away from winning the AFC South. Despite missing his prized rookie signal-caller for most of the campaign, in […]

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2024 Houston Texans Fantasy Preview

July 18, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Houston Texans Fantasy Preview The 2023 Houston Texans were projected to win the fewest games in the AFC, but a strange thing happened on their way to the AFC South basement. In one offseason, the franchise hired the right […]

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2024 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview

July 17, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview The Vikings took a step back in Kevin O’Connell’s second season, dropping from 13-4 to 7-10. In his third season at the helm, OConnell must contend with breaking in a brand new franchise signal caller, […]

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