CeeDee Lamb
DFS

Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Thankfully, we saw an increase in scoring last week. Hopefully, that action led to a better outcome in your DFS lineups. This week, our Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report will help you make […]

Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Thankfully, we saw an increase in scoring last week. Hopefully, that action led to a better outcome in your DFS lineups. This week, our Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report will help you make better lineup decisions in what looks like a challenging slate.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s  Week 3 DFS: quarterback and tight end reports.

 

After two games, Justin Jefferson (9/150 and 11/159) and Puca Nacua (10/119 and 15/151) are the only two wideouts to score more than 20.00 fantasy points in both weeks. They also rank first and second in targets (25 and 35). Nine wide receivers have 20 targets or more. 

Keenan Allen (8/111/2) led the Week 2, followed by Nacua (15/151) and Mike Evans (6/171/1). Seventeen wideouts scored between 20.00 and 30.00 fantasy points (eight in Week 1). In PPR formats, Tyreek Hill ranks first in wide receiver scoring (59.50).

 

Top Tier Options

 

Davante Adams, LV (DK – $7,800/FD – $7,900)

Jimmy Garoppolo looks Adams’ way 17 times over the first two weeks, leading to 12 catches for 150 yards and one touchdown. His ceiling has been limited due to the Raiders only attempting 50 passes. Last season, he had seven impact games (10/141/1, 3/124/2, 10/146/2, 9/126/1, 7/141/2, 8/177/2, and 7/153/2).

The Steelers showed risk vs. wide receivers in Week 1 (SF – 13/184/2). But a better pass rush (six sacks) and weaker quarterback play by Deshaun Watson led to a 50% catch rate on 28 targets with 160 yards vs. the Browns. In 2022, Pittsburgh finished seventh in wide receiver defense (29.60 FPPG) despite two disastrous games (BUF – 18/389/4 and PHI – 13/236/4). CB Patrick Peterson has already given up two touchdowns and multiple long plays.

Adams needs the Raiders to open up the passing game and do a better job moving the chains. He remains a volume pass-catcher with elite upside in scoring. Home cooking should treat him well on Sunday.

Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,700)

The game has been relatively easy for Jefferson over the first two weeks (20/309 on 25 targets). He’s gained 20 yards or more on 40% of his catches with an elite catch rate (80%). The structure of the Vikings’ receivers and their offensive game plan creates plenty of open field and opportunities. Last year, Jefferson scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in seven contests.

The Chargers have already allowed 32 catches for 565 yards and four touchdowns on 43 targets to wide receiver while allowing a dismal 17.7 yards per catch. Tyreek Hill (11/215/2) dominated their defense in Week 1. Last year, Los Angeles was slightly above the league average against wideouts (31.50 FPPG). CB J.C. Jackson made a couple of mistakes in Week 1, leading to a pair of long catches and a touchdown. Overall, he has held receivers to a low catch rate.

Minnesota attempts a high volume of passes in most games. However, they need to create…

 

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Evan Engram
DFS

Week 3 DFS: Tight End Report

Week 3 DFS: Tight End Report Two weeks into the 2023 season, only one tight end (T.J. Hockenson – 7/66/2) scored more than 18.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. His success moved him to first overall, followed by Hunter Henry […]

Week 3 DFS: Tight End Report

Two weeks into the 2023 season, only one tight end (T.J. Hockenson – 7/66/2) scored more than 18.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. His success moved him to first overall, followed by Hunter Henry (11/108/2). Here’s the ranking of the other top seven tight ends drafted this year:

  • Travis Kelce (4/26/1 – 20th)
  • Mark Andrews (5/45/1 – 12th)
  • Darren Waller (9/112 – 5th)
  • Dallas Goedert (6/22 – 40th)
  • George Kittle (3/49 – 26th)
  • Kyle Pitts (4/59 – 28th)

Zach Ertz leads all tight ends in targets (18).

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 3 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 3 DFS: QB Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,500)

The theme for Hockenson in the Vikings’ offense had been the same over the first two weeks in 2023. He had been active in both of his starts (8/35 and 7/66/2) while working close to the line of scrimmage (6.7 yards per catch – 8.6 with Minnesota last year). Over his previous 75 catches, Hockenson gained more than 20 yards on only two plays.

This season, tight ends have seven catches for 79 yards on 12 targets vs. the Chargers. Their success was helped by facing two lower-tiered players (Durham Smythe – 3/44 and Chigoziem Okonkwo – 4/35). In 2022, Los Angeles finished 9th in tight end defense (63/874/5 on 103 targets) but gained 13.9 yards per catch.

The Chargers come into this matchup with massive concerns defending wide receivers (32/565/4) and Justin Jefferson staring them down on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Hockenson is slightly more attractive at FanDuel. Either way, he needs at least 25.00 fantasy points to be in play, requiring at least one score and long pass reception to push him over 100 yards receiving.

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400)

In his first game back in action, Andrews was on the field for 79% of the Ravens’ snaps. He finished third for the week in tight end scoring (5/45/1) with a team-high eight targets. When at his best last season, he had four impact games (9/104/1, 8/89/2, 8/89/1, and 7/106/1) over the first six weeks. 

The Colts kept tight ends in check over the first two games (5/49 and 6/61). Both players (Evan Engram and Dalton Schultz) finished in the top 12 in tight end scoring in 2022. Indy struggled last year in three games…

 

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Justin Herbert
DFS

Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report

Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report In four-point passing touchdown formats, Daniel Jones (34.95 fantasy points) was the best quarterback in the land in Week 2. Kirk Cousins (33.20) and Russell Wilson (31.00) were the only other two options to score […]

Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report

In four-point passing touchdown formats, Daniel Jones (34.95 fantasy points) was the best quarterback in the land in Week 2. Kirk Cousins (33.20) and Russell Wilson (31.00) were the only other two options to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Fifteen quarterbacks scored between 21.50 to 28.50 fantasy points, compared to nine in Week 1.

Here are the top five quarterbacks two weeks into the season:

  • Kirk Cousins (56.10)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (49.55)
  • Justin Herbert (48.40)
  • Patrick Mahomes (48.05)
  • Russell Wilson (47.95)

Joe Burrow (22.70 fantasy points – 32nd) is the biggest underachiever so far in 2023.

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

The lack of identity at wide receiver does hurt his explosiveness, at least out of the gate. Kadarius Toney leads the team in targets (10), but he only has 49 yards receiving. Justin Watson (5/107 on nine targets) has been a surprise, and he leads the team in receiving yards. Travis Kelce (4/26/1) didn’t have the same bounce in his step in Week 2 while appearing to be favoring his knee at the end of last week’s game. On the positive side, Mahomes continues to produce fantasy points.

The Bears’ defense allowed eight touchdowns and three field goals over the first two matchups while allowing 65 points. They only have one sack, with quarterbacks (Jordan Love – 257/3 and Baker Mayfield – 334/1) gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Chicago has played better than expected vs. the run (66/212/2 – 3.2 yards per carry). Wide receivers (21/348/3 on 35 targets) have a low catch rate (60.0%) but average 16.6 yards per catch.

Two weeks into the season, Kansas City only has four touchdowns, averaging 18.5 points per game. Mahomes looks poised to post a high-level game, and his wide receiving corps remains cheap in the DFS market. Unfortunately, he must score 33.00 fantasy points at DraftKings (28.00 at FanDuel) to be in the winning equation. His over/under in passing yards (295.5) at Underdog appears too low based on my projections (312/3), especially if Mahomes hits on one long touchdown. The key to his ceiling is Justin Fields leading the Bears to at least 20 points.

 

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2021 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks
DFS

Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The first week of the NFL season delivered an interesting mix of wide receiver production at the top end. Our Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report recaps who hit value and how we can […]

Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

The first week of the NFL season delivered an interesting mix of wide receiver production at the top end. Our Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report recaps who hit value and how we can use that data to make profitable lineup choices in Week 2.

Tyreek Hill (11/215/2 on 15 targets) was an absolute beast, while Brandon Aiyuk (8/129/2) and Jakobi Meyers (9/81/2) had excellent games. Three wideouts (Kendrick Bourne – 6/64/2, Puka Nacua – 10/119, and Rashid Shaheed – 5/89/1) finished in the top 10 in wide receiver scoring, all of which were probably found in the free agent pool in some leagues in Week 2. Justin Jefferson (9/150) did his job, and Calvin Ridley (8/101/1) rewarded his believers with a great start to the season.

Just like in 2022 (9/122/1), Michael Pittman (8/97/1) kicked in the wide receiver door in Week 1 despite freefalling in drafts in early September due to the passing concerns for Anthony Richardson. Ten other wideouts scored between 15.00 and 19.90 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s  Week 2DFS QB Report Week 2DFS TE Report, and Week 2 DFS RB Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,000)

The threat of Sauce Gardner (he allowed four catches for 59 yards on five targets per PFF) slowing down Diggs in Week 1 ended up being a false theory. Buffalo found creative ways to get him the ball, leading to 10 catches for 102 yards and one score on 13 targets. The Bills’ secondary receiving options struggled to make big plays (19/134 – 7.1 yards per catch). Over his 50 games with the Bills, Diggs has 497 targets (9.9 per game). In his 10 home games in 2022, he gained more than 100 yards in six starts (12/148/3, 8/102/1, 12/128, 7/104/1, and 7/114).

The Raiders were about the league-average vs. wide receivers (208/2,660/13 on 314 targets in 2022), with three offenses (DEN – 13/203/2, SEA – 17/206/1, and KC – 16/221) gaining more than 200 yards from their wideouts. Their top three cornerbacks in Week 1 gave up nine catches for 101 yards on 11 targets. Both the Broncos’ passing touchdowns came against their safeties.

Diggs is the chain-mover for Buffalo, and he should be active again in Week 2. To reach 30.00 fantasy points, the Bills need to get him at least one score and find him on at least one long pass to reach the 100-yard bonus at DraftKings. His salary looks more favorable at FanDuel.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Based on Joe Burrow’s struggles in Week 1 (14-for-31 with 82 passing yards) and his lack of success vs. the Ravens in 2022 (233/2, 225/1, and 214/2), the daily market should fade Chase and his star quarterback in Week 2. On the positive side, Baltimore will most likely be without their top cornerback (Marlon Humphrey), and their starting safety (Marcus Williams) has already been ruled out.

Last year, Chase was active in all three games (7/50, 9/84/1, and 9/84/1) vs. the Ravens with 37 targets, but he failed to hit on any long plays. When at his best in 2022, he gained over 100 yards in four matchups (10/129/1, 7/132/2, 8/130/2, and 10/119/1), three of which came at home.

Baltimore finished 22nd defending wide receivers (227/2,875/12 on 353 targets) last season. Their secondary had some problems vs…

 

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george kittle
DFS

Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report

Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report The tight end position came up empty for too many fantasy teams in Week 1, highlighted by two star players (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) taking the week off. In addition, George Kittle (4.90 […]

Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report

The tight end position came up empty for too many fantasy teams in Week 1, highlighted by two star players (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) taking the week off. In addition, George Kittle (4.90 fantasy points) and Dallas Goedert (no catches) weren’t worthy of starting in any format. T.J. Hockenson (11.50 fantasy points) was the third-highest scoring option in PPR formats.

Six of the top 10 scoring tight ends were either undrafted or resided on fantasy benches.

  • Hunter Henry (5/56/1)
  • Hayden Hurst (5/41/1)
  • Donald Parham (3/21/1)
  • Blake Bell (2/12/1)
  • Harrison Bryant (2/5/1)
  • Adam Trautman (5/34)

Zach Ertz led all tight ends in targets (10) despite being questionable to play in Week 1. Logan Thomas (8), Durham Smythe (7), and Kylen Granson (6) ranked in the top 10 in targets despite being found in the free-agent pool in almost all 12-team league heading into Week 2. Here’s the total tight end production from Washington, Miami, and Indianapolis in 2022:

  • Commanders – 60/518/2 on 98 targets
  • Dolphins – 47/491/6 on 75 targets
  • Colts – 75/803/6 on 108 targets

Indy had the best overall tight end opportunity of the three last year while throwing the ball over 600 times. The change at quarterback points to a minimum of 100 fewer throws. Also,  the Colts rotated in three options in Week 1. Here is the snap breakdown for their tight ends in 2022: Mo Alie-Cox (586), Kylen Granson (408), and Jelani Woods (334).

Last season, only five tight ends averaged more than 10.00 fantasy points per game in PPR formats (7 in 2021 and 6 in 2020).

Here’s a look at some tight ends on the main slate in Week 2 in the DFS market:

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s  Week 2 DFS QB Report and Week 2 DFS RB Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,300/FD – $8,000)

In the early projections, Andrews is the top-rated tight end for Week 2. But he is far from a lock to be a difference-maker after turning in a limited practice on Wednesday. Last year, he scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in four of his 14 matchups (25.70, 28.90, 22.90, and 23.60), but they all came over the first six weeks. Andrews also sat out Week 1 in 2022 but delivered an impact game (9/107/1) the following game vs. the Dolphins at home. He had two starts (8/89/1 and 5/73) against Cincinnati last season.

The Bengals (88/924/3) struggled to defend the tight end four times (7/115,10/96/1, 10/87, and 8/67/1) in 2022. The Browns’ tight ends had five catches for 41 yards and one score on six targets in Week 1.

Andrews comes into this week with risk in his role and potential snaps. At the same time, his higher salary requires 25.00 fantasy points to be worth the investment. If he plays, I don’t expect him to be a popular option, creating an edge ownership if he does pay off. I’m only taking a flier on him on teams with Lamar Jackson.

George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,200)

Kittle had a dull showing in Week 1 (3/19 on six targets) while being in the field for 69% of the 49ers plays. When at his best late in 2022, San Fran gave him 90% or more of their tight end snaps in 11 of his 18 games. His best success came over four games (4/93/2, 6/120/2, 4/23/1, and 4/29/2) late last season with Brock Purdy behind center. Kittle had five catches or more in only four matchups (5/47, 8/83, 6/98/1, and 6/120/2) with only one double-digit target game (10). 

The Rams finished 13th in…

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Christian McCaffrey
DFS

Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report

After the first week of the NFL season, seven running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. There were 21 other backs that finished between 10.00 and 17.50 fantasy points. This Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report […]

After the first week of the NFL season, seven running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. There were 21 other backs that finished between 10.00 and 17.50 fantasy points. This Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report will help identify winning plays to target in Week 2. 

The Chargers (40/234/3) had the most success running the ball, followed by Cleveland (40/206/1), San Francisco (34/188/1), and the Jets (28/172/1). The 16 games resulted in 22 scores on the ground, with four offenses hitting pay dirt three times (LAR, LAC, BAL, and DAL). The Vikings had the worst rushing offense (17/41), while Pittsburgh (10/41) and Las Vegas (29/61) ranked 31st and 30th.j

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s  Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $8,900/FD – $9,500)

It took McCaffrey one game (169 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 25 touches) to show his edge at the running back position. He hit on a 65-yard score to set up his great day. The 49ers had him in the field for 85% of their snaps. That was a total he only hit three times in 2022 with San Francisco. Last year, McCaffrey averaged 20.98 FPPG in PPR formats, with his one impact game (183 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) coming on the road against the Rams. 

Los Angeles was league-average defending running backs in 2022 (404/1,753/12 with 79 catches for 665 yards and two scores on 103 targets). Three offenses posted more than 40.00 fantasy points from their backs.

McCaffrey is a high-floor player. But his high salary requires well over 30.00 fantasy points to be in play in Week 2. Ultimately, any decision to play him comes from finding value at other positions…

 

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Jalen Hurts
DFS

Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report

After a wild Week 1, Shawn Childs provides his Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report so you can dominate on DraftKings and FanDuel! Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report Top Tier Options Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,800) On the […]

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Geno Smith
DFS

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Seahawks – 6 Over/Under: 46.0 The Rams come into 2023 with a rebuilding feel, and their star wide receiver (Cooper Kupp) is battling a hamstring injury heading into […]

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Seahawks – 6

Over/Under: 46.0

The Rams come into 2023 with a rebuilding feel, and their star wide receiver (Cooper Kupp) is battling a hamstring injury heading into Week 1. Matthew Stafford is a proven quarterback, but his secondary receiving options are below the league average. Cam Akers played well late last season, giving the fantasy market hope that he will build on his success this year. I see risk in the secondary for Los Angeles, pointing to Seattle throwing the ball well if DE Aaron Donald can’t shorten the passing window.

The Seahawks bring a high foundation of the receiving corps, highlighted by DK Metcalf and the exciting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Tyler Lockett has an excellent resume despite being on the wrong side of 30. Seattle lines two exciting young running backs – Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The biggest question for this team is their defense, which is a win for overall scoring by their offense.


Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford

  • Last season, over nine starts, Stafford delivered one playable game (272/3) in the fantasy markets. His completion rate (68.0) was a career-best, but he had a decline in pass attempts per game (33.7 – 35.4) and an increase in his sack percentage (8.7 – 4.8 in 2021). 
  • In addition, his yards per pass attempt (6.9) declined by 1.2 yards from 2021 (8.1). His year ended after Week 11 with a neck injury.
  • With Cooper Kupp trending toward a sit in Week 1, Stafford’s projection will be lowered in the next update.
  • The Seahawks ranked 16th in quarterback defense, with one team scoring over 30.00 fantasy points.
  • Seattle should score in this game, so a chaser game gives Stafford a chance only if Kupp is a full go.

Cam Akers

  • Last season, Akers was a bust in the fantasy market over the first nine games (84/274/1 with two catches for 18 yards) while also missing two games with personal issues (not getting the ball enough). 
  • From Week 12 to Week 16, he gained 240 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches. 
  • The Rams gave Akers a workhorse opportunity over his final three matchups (23/118/3, 19/123, and 21/04 with six combined catches for 63 yards), with the latter coming against Seattle.
  • The Seahawks finished 28th in running defense (27.72 FPPG), with five teams scoring more than 35.00 fantasy points.
  • There has been talk out of Rams’ camp that Kyren Williams would see more time this season on passing downs. Akers has the tools to rush for 100 yards with a score, putting in range…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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Justin Fields
DFS

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bears – 2.5 Over/Under: 43.5 The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him […]

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bears – 2.5

Over/Under: 43.5

The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him with their new Love. The summer reports have been positive for Jordan Love, especially his connection with Christian Watson. The running back position remains in the hands of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Green Bay added WR Jaylen Reed and TE Luke Musgrove to improve the depth of their passing options.

The Bears have a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but they have the tools to be a much better offense in 2023. DJ Moore is an upgrade at wideout, and a healthy Darnell Mooney paired with Cole Kmet gives Justin Fields the weapons to push much higher in his pass production. He remains a beast running the ball. Chicago will rotate in three backs out of the gate.


Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love

  • Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel when waiting for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concerns with his accuracy. 
  • In his first chance to see game action with Green Bay in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts. 
  • He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Last season, Love saw limited snaps over four games (14-for-21 with 195 yards and one touchdown). 
  • The Bears ranked 26th in quarterback defense (21.36 FPPG). Despite their lower rankings, only one quarterback posted an impact game (39.85 fantasy points). On the positive side, seven quarterbacks scored between 24.90 and 28.90 fantasy points.
  • Love is priced in a favorable range, and he does have one explosive wideout. Let the “Magic” happen.

Aaron Jones

  • Last year, Jones gained more than 1,400 combined yards for the third time while setting a career-high in catches (59). 
  • He was a much better player at home (932 combined yards with four touchdowns and 28 catches) than on the road (584 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches). 
  • Jones gained more than 100 yards in six matchups. Green Bay had him on the field for the same percentage of plays (57.6) while playing two games. 
  • In Week 2, he posted an impact game (170 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches) vs. the Bears.
  • Chicago had the second-worst defense against running backs.
  • The Packers will rotate in two backs, and Love may not get Jones as many targets as in the past with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
  • He needs a 25.00 fantasy point game to be in the mix. I’ll take the under…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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