Week 18 Incentives to Target
Welcome to 2025! While the 2024 season has concluded, there is still a week of NFL action to enjoy. That opens the door for DFS enthusiasts to put their full attention on a wide-open slate. However, some teams have little to play for and will rest starters. Conversely, some players have Week 18 incentives to target.
This is a recap of the teams that have already clinched and have little at stake this week. Therefore, fantasy football fans should avoid these players. Plenty of players are set to hit bonuses or milestones that make them enviable targets.
Teams to Avoid
Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have already secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Andy Reid announced that Carson Wentz will start and presumably, the rest of the team’s starters will rest.
Buffalo Bills– Locked into the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Expect Josh Allen to play the opening drive but that’s about it. The same should apply to the team’s key offensive starters.
Philadelphia Eagles – Philadelphia is locked into the NFC’s No. 2 seed and will sit their starters. Surprisingly, this includes RB Saquon Barkley, who needed just 101 yards to break the all-time rushing record.
Houston Texans – DeMeco Ryans plans to open the game with his starters and “see how the game goes.” The AFC South champs are limping into the playoffs and would like to avenge an earlier loss to the lowly Texans. However, it makes little sense to risk C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, or Joe Mixon in a largely meaningless game.
Los Angeles Rams – Although the Rams could move into the No. 3 spot with a win and Tampa loss, Sean McVay has already indicated that he will rest his starters.
Plenty at Stake
Baltimore Ravens – A win versus the Browns clinches the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed.
Detroit Lions – The top 2 teams in the NFC will square off to determine who will secure the conference’s No. 1 seed. This Lions vs. Vikings game has a season-high total of 56 points. The loser tumbles down to the No. 5 seeds. Sunday night is a huge game.
Minnesota Vikings – A little extra motivation for the Vikings, who are looking to pay back the Lions for handing them one of their two losses on the season. Detroit is a slim 2.5-point home favorite in a game that should be an instant classic. The winner secures home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Denver Broncos – Denver is in the playoffs with a win. With Kansas City resting starters, the Broncos are 10.5-point home favorites.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs are also in a “win and in” situation at home against the Saints. Tampa is currently a 13-point favorite and clearly in the driver’s seat. A victory secures Tampa another NFC South crown and the No. 3 seed.
Green Bay Packers – Green Bay has already clinched a playoff spot. The Packers enter Week 18 as the No. 7 seed. However, they could move up to No. 6 with a home win against the Bears and a Dallas victory over Washington. Additionally, Matt LaFleur said he plans to play his starters in their normal roles.
Washington Commanders – Dan Quinn also told the media his starters will play in Week 18 as the Commanders try to secure the No. 6 seed. Whoever wins that spot avoids an opening-round trip to Philadelphia, so there is plenty of motivation for Washington to dispatch the hated Cowboys.
To Be Determined
Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers play Saturday night and will already know the outcome of the Baltimore vs. Cleveland game. If the Ravens (17.5-point home favorites) win, Pittsburgh is locked into the No. 5 seed and will travel to Houston. If the Browns pull the upset, the Steelers will play all-out for the No. 3 seed.
Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins need a lot of help to make the playoffs. Most importantly, they need the Broncos (10.5-point favorites) to lose. Miami is also dealing with a lot of injuries, so they’ll be playing to win but monitoring the game in Denver. Fantasy managers can target De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jonnu Smith and hope for a fast start.
Atlanta Falcons – Week 18 is a must-win for the Falcons to have any hope of winning the NFC South. However, Atlanta also needs Tampa Bay to lose, so they will be going all-out while keeping an eye on the scoreboard. With the Bucs big home favorites, the odds are against the Falcons sneaking into the postseason field. Regardless, they’ll likely play their starters the full game.
Los Angeles Chargers – The Chargers travel to Las Vegas on Sunday and will already know if they have anything at stake thanks the the Steelers vs. Bengals game on Saturday. If Pittsburgh wins, the Chargers are locked into the No. 6 seed. However, if Cincinnati wins, LA could move up to fifth. Jim Harbaugh said he plans to win but “will do what’s best for the team.”
Player Incentives
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith – Needs 186 passing yards to earn a $2 million bonus. Also earns an additional $2 million if Seattle hits 10 wins. Finally, Smith earns another $2 million if he finishes at or above his current 70.2% completion rate.
Baker Mayfield – Mayfield will earn a half-million if he finishes the season in the top 10 in passer rating, touchdowns, yards, completion rate, or yards-per-attempt. He is checking all of those boxes entering this game. ‘Pay dat men his money’.
Aaron Rodgers – In what could be his final NFL game, Rodgers needs 377 passing yards to top 4,000 for the season. His highest figure all year was 339 in Week 14.
C.J. Stroud – Stroud is just ahead of Rodgers and would need 323 passing yards to top 4K. However, with the Texans locked into the No. 4 seed, that is highly unlikely.
Kyler Murray – Murray would need 391 passing yards to reach 4,000, which would be the third-highest mark of his career.
Jayden Daniels – Would need 136 rushing yards to eclipse 1,000 for the season. Don’t count on it.
Running Backs
Derek Henry – One more rushing TD nets him a half-million-dollar bonus.
J.K. Dobbins – Collects a $150,000 bonus if he tops 900 rushing yards. He enters this game at 842, needing just 58 yards.
Tony Pollard – Will earn $250,000 with 83 more rushing yards and could fetch another $250K with two touchdowns.
Joe Mixon – 1,100 rushing yards would trigger a $250,000 bonus for Mixon. He enters this game 107 yards shy. However, with Houston likely to rest starters, it’s looking unlikely.
Justice Hill – I don’t expect either of these to happen due to Hill missing last week with a concussion, but eight grabs and 117 receiving yards would earn Hill a million bucks ($500K each).
Chase Brown – 10 yards shy of 1,000 rushing yards.
James Cook – 19 yards shy of 1,000 rushing yards. Also, one rushing TD from the team record.
Alvin Kamara – 50 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard rushing campaign.
D’Andre Swift – Swift would need 106 rushing yards to reach 1,000.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans – Per Forbes: “Evans can add $3 million to his scheduled 2025 salary of $18 million if he finishes the season with 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He will get there with five catches and 85 yards against the Saints.” Also, Evans would get another $667K for finishing inside the top 10 wide receivers in receiving yards. He enters this game 11th.
Courtland Sutton – Sutton would trigger a $500,000 bonus with 82 receiving yards. He has topped that mark four times since Week 8.
Ja’Marr Chase – One TD away from setting Cincinnati’s record. He is also in a position to win the receiving Triple Crown.
DeAndre Hopkins – Needs a receiving touchdown to cash in $500,000.
Marques Valdes-Scantling – One TD away from $250,000.
Mack Hollins – The Bills are resting starters but Hollins could stay in the lineup. He’ll earn an additional $200K with 72 receiving yards and another $50K with two grabs.
Darius Slayton – 11(!) receptions away from a $100,000 bonus. However, Slayton hasn’t caught more than two passes in a game since Week 9.
Puka Nacua – One 10-yard catch would secure Nacua 1,000 receiving yards for the season.
Malik Nabers – Speaking of Nacua, Malik Nabers is two receptions away from breaking the rookie WR receptions record, set last year.
Davante Adams – Needs 25 yards to top 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth straight season.
Garrett Wilson – Three grabs shy of 100.
Nico Collins – 32 yards shy of 1,000.
Jameson Williams – 33 yards away from his first 1,000-yard campaign. With a 56-point total, this looks like a lock.
Darnell Mooney – Needs only two yards to top 1,000 for the year.
Calvin Ridley – Needs 59 yards to reach 1,000.
Tyreek Hill – Enters this game with 79 grabs for 939 yards. 61 away from his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season.
DK Metcalf – Also 61 yards away from 1K.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Has 96 grabs this season, leaving him just four shy of 100. Also, JSN is just five grabs away from setting Seattle’s all-time record, currently held by Tyler Lockett.
Jauan Jennings – Jennings has already set new career-best marks in every category. He is just 77 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard season. However, with Josh Dobbs under center, that won’t be easy.
George Pickens – Sitting at 900 yards for the season.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz – Washginton’s tight ends stands to earn $250,000 for each of the following: Nine receptions, 90 receiving yards, and two touchdown grabs.
Brock Bowers – With eight receptions, Bowers would set the new all-time receptions record for a tight end. The aforementioned Zach Ertz holds the current record of 115. Also, Bowers has already caught 8-plus passes in a game seven times.
Thanks for reading our Week 18 NFL Incentives to Target!
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