Month: September 2023

Colts RB Zack Moss
DFS

Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 2

September 20, 2023 Scott Atkins

Snap counts tell us who is playing but they don’t always paint a clear picture of who is producing for our fantasy football lineups. By digging deep into FullTime Fantasy‘s Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 1, we are able […]

NFL Snap Counts Frequently Asked Questions

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

 

What are NFL snap counts?

Snap counts represent the total number of offensive plays a player participated in during a given week.

Why should I care about NFL snap counts?

The number of times a player is on the field for a player can be incredibly useful. It helps track usage, and how players are used and provide fantasy football managers with the ability to look beyond the usual on-field production by adding context to those more traditional statistics.

How are your NFL snap-count numbers compiled?

NFL snap counts are tracked by the NFL Game Statistics and Information System (GSIS). For the last two years, each player has had a chip inserted in his shoulder pads so that radio transmitters in stadiums can track his every move on the field. This is how the GSIS compiles snap counts (and other on-field information).

How can I use NFL snap counts to leverage my success in fantasy football?

Understanding playing time can be a key factor in setting your weekly lineup. In particular, understanding and identifying trends that might give you an early jump on acquiring free agents or making trades for players who might quietly be gaining playing time.

What are the possible drawbacks to using NFL snap counts as part of my fantasy football lineup strategy?

As FantasyPros recently noted, studying snap counts and the percentage of snaps played is one of the easiest ways that we can determine one of the most basic, but important questions for potential fantasy success: Is this player even on the field often enough to make a difference? That said, NFL snap counts only outline playing time, and being on the field is only the first step to fantasy relevance. It’s not the only step. Don’t emphasize snap counts over production.

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

SNAPS Total offensive snaps played by player.
SNAP % Percentage of offensive snaps played.
RUSH % Percentage of snaps played where player had a rushing attempt.
TGT % Percentage of snaps played where player was targeted by a pass attempt.
TOUCH % Percentage of snaps played where player touched the football (includes pass attempts, rush attempts and receptions).
FPTS Fantasy points scored by player.
PTS/100 SNAPS Average fantasy points scored by player per 100 snaps

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Zack Moss
Season Long – All Sports

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 3

September 18, 2023 Jody Smith

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 3 It’s always a good idea to proceed with caution on your waiver wire after Week 1. Of course, every once in a while a Puka Nacua comes around and destroys that approach. That’s unlikely […]

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 3

It’s always a good idea to proceed with caution on your waiver wire after Week 1. Of course, every once in a while a Puka Nacua comes around and destroys that approach. That’s unlikely this week. However, there are still plenty of appealing options on the Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 3.

 

Here are the top fantasy football waiver wire: Week 3 players to target—also, a recommended FAAB value to spend.

FAAB denotes Free Agent Acquisition Budget

Zack Moss (RB) Indianapolis Colts (12% FAAB) – After missing Week 1, Moss did a hostile takeover of the Indianapolis backfield. He was the only Colts’ running back to see the field in Houston. Moss logged 56-of-57 snaps and turned 22 touches into 107 scrimmage yards and a score. Deon Jackson didn’t log one snap. Also, we know Jonathan Taylor will miss a minimum of two more games. That puts Moss in a position to compile RB2 numbers for at least two weeks. However, a matchup against Tennessee’s tough run D next week looms, so keep bids reasonable.

Tutu Atwell (WR) Los Angeles Rams (10% FAAB) – I advocated for prioritizing Puka Nacua last week. In retrospect, 20% FAAB wasn’t nearly enough for Nacua, who is making headlines. Conversely, Tutu Atwell is flying under the radar. However, he’s quietly been nearly as good. Atwell is the WR15 headed into Monday Night Football. He’s top 10 in catches and yards through two games. I don’t expect this kind of production to continue, but…

To see the rest of this week’s waiver wire and FAAB targets…

 

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2021 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks
DFS

Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

September 16, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The first week of the NFL season delivered an interesting mix of wide receiver production at the top end. Our Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report recaps who hit value and how we can […]

Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

The first week of the NFL season delivered an interesting mix of wide receiver production at the top end. Our Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report recaps who hit value and how we can use that data to make profitable lineup choices in Week 2.

Tyreek Hill (11/215/2 on 15 targets) was an absolute beast, while Brandon Aiyuk (8/129/2) and Jakobi Meyers (9/81/2) had excellent games. Three wideouts (Kendrick Bourne – 6/64/2, Puka Nacua – 10/119, and Rashid Shaheed – 5/89/1) finished in the top 10 in wide receiver scoring, all of which were probably found in the free agent pool in some leagues in Week 2. Justin Jefferson (9/150) did his job, and Calvin Ridley (8/101/1) rewarded his believers with a great start to the season.

Just like in 2022 (9/122/1), Michael Pittman (8/97/1) kicked in the wide receiver door in Week 1 despite freefalling in drafts in early September due to the passing concerns for Anthony Richardson. Ten other wideouts scored between 15.00 and 19.90 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s  Week 2DFS QB Report Week 2DFS TE Report, and Week 2 DFS RB Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,000)

The threat of Sauce Gardner (he allowed four catches for 59 yards on five targets per PFF) slowing down Diggs in Week 1 ended up being a false theory. Buffalo found creative ways to get him the ball, leading to 10 catches for 102 yards and one score on 13 targets. The Bills’ secondary receiving options struggled to make big plays (19/134 – 7.1 yards per catch). Over his 50 games with the Bills, Diggs has 497 targets (9.9 per game). In his 10 home games in 2022, he gained more than 100 yards in six starts (12/148/3, 8/102/1, 12/128, 7/104/1, and 7/114).

The Raiders were about the league-average vs. wide receivers (208/2,660/13 on 314 targets in 2022), with three offenses (DEN – 13/203/2, SEA – 17/206/1, and KC – 16/221) gaining more than 200 yards from their wideouts. Their top three cornerbacks in Week 1 gave up nine catches for 101 yards on 11 targets. Both the Broncos’ passing touchdowns came against their safeties.

Diggs is the chain-mover for Buffalo, and he should be active again in Week 2. To reach 30.00 fantasy points, the Bills need to get him at least one score and find him on at least one long pass to reach the 100-yard bonus at DraftKings. His salary looks more favorable at FanDuel.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Based on Joe Burrow’s struggles in Week 1 (14-for-31 with 82 passing yards) and his lack of success vs. the Ravens in 2022 (233/2, 225/1, and 214/2), the daily market should fade Chase and his star quarterback in Week 2. On the positive side, Baltimore will most likely be without their top cornerback (Marlon Humphrey), and their starting safety (Marcus Williams) has already been ruled out.

Last year, Chase was active in all three games (7/50, 9/84/1, and 9/84/1) vs. the Ravens with 37 targets, but he failed to hit on any long plays. When at his best in 2022, he gained over 100 yards in four matchups (10/129/1, 7/132/2, 8/130/2, and 10/119/1), three of which came at home.

Baltimore finished 22nd defending wide receivers (227/2,875/12 on 353 targets) last season. Their secondary had some problems vs…

 

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calvin ridley
Season Long – All Sports

Week 2 NFL Player Props

September 16, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 2 NFL Player Props Week 1 is in the books and it’s that time of week to start pinpointing the best prop bets to exploit heading into Sunday’s slate of Week 2 action. Remember to always odds shop at […]

Week 2 NFL Player Props

Week 1 is in the books and it’s that time of week to start pinpointing the best prop bets to exploit heading into Sunday’s slate of Week 2 action. Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find FullTime Fantasy‘s best Week 2 NFL Player Props!

Justin Herbert OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)

Last Sunday, despite putting up 34 points, Herbert only managed to throw a single touchdown pass in the Chargers’ high-scoring loss to the Miami Dolphins. However, that was largely due to the fact that Miami struggled to contain the run as Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combined for over 200 yards on the ground.

This week, the Chargers will employ a much different game plan against a Tennessee Titans defense that ranked first in rushing yards and yards per carry but ranked last in the NFL in passing yards allowed. That trend appears to be continuing in 2023 as the Titans didn’t do much to stop Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints’ passing attack in Week 1. Jamaal Williams only tallied 45 rushing yards but Carr threw the ball for 300+ yards.

With all of his weapons healthy in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston, Gerald Everett, and perhaps the best pass-catching running back in the NFL outside of Christian McCaffrey in Ekeler, expect Herbert to let it fly in Week 2 after a disappointing loss in the season opener. Herbert will find a way to get the ball in the end zone at least twice…

 

WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…

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george kittle
DFS

Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report

September 15, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report The tight end position came up empty for too many fantasy teams in Week 1, highlighted by two star players (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) taking the week off. In addition, George Kittle (4.90 […]

Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report

The tight end position came up empty for too many fantasy teams in Week 1, highlighted by two star players (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) taking the week off. In addition, George Kittle (4.90 fantasy points) and Dallas Goedert (no catches) weren’t worthy of starting in any format. T.J. Hockenson (11.50 fantasy points) was the third-highest scoring option in PPR formats.

Six of the top 10 scoring tight ends were either undrafted or resided on fantasy benches.

  • Hunter Henry (5/56/1)
  • Hayden Hurst (5/41/1)
  • Donald Parham (3/21/1)
  • Blake Bell (2/12/1)
  • Harrison Bryant (2/5/1)
  • Adam Trautman (5/34)

Zach Ertz led all tight ends in targets (10) despite being questionable to play in Week 1. Logan Thomas (8), Durham Smythe (7), and Kylen Granson (6) ranked in the top 10 in targets despite being found in the free-agent pool in almost all 12-team league heading into Week 2. Here’s the total tight end production from Washington, Miami, and Indianapolis in 2022:

  • Commanders – 60/518/2 on 98 targets
  • Dolphins – 47/491/6 on 75 targets
  • Colts – 75/803/6 on 108 targets

Indy had the best overall tight end opportunity of the three last year while throwing the ball over 600 times. The change at quarterback points to a minimum of 100 fewer throws. Also,  the Colts rotated in three options in Week 1. Here is the snap breakdown for their tight ends in 2022: Mo Alie-Cox (586), Kylen Granson (408), and Jelani Woods (334).

Last season, only five tight ends averaged more than 10.00 fantasy points per game in PPR formats (7 in 2021 and 6 in 2020).

Here’s a look at some tight ends on the main slate in Week 2 in the DFS market:

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s  Week 2 DFS QB Report and Week 2 DFS RB Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,300/FD – $8,000)

In the early projections, Andrews is the top-rated tight end for Week 2. But he is far from a lock to be a difference-maker after turning in a limited practice on Wednesday. Last year, he scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in four of his 14 matchups (25.70, 28.90, 22.90, and 23.60), but they all came over the first six weeks. Andrews also sat out Week 1 in 2022 but delivered an impact game (9/107/1) the following game vs. the Dolphins at home. He had two starts (8/89/1 and 5/73) against Cincinnati last season.

The Bengals (88/924/3) struggled to defend the tight end four times (7/115,10/96/1, 10/87, and 8/67/1) in 2022. The Browns’ tight ends had five catches for 41 yards and one score on six targets in Week 1.

Andrews comes into this week with risk in his role and potential snaps. At the same time, his higher salary requires 25.00 fantasy points to be worth the investment. If he plays, I don’t expect him to be a popular option, creating an edge ownership if he does pay off. I’m only taking a flier on him on teams with Lamar Jackson.

George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,200)

Kittle had a dull showing in Week 1 (3/19 on six targets) while being in the field for 69% of the 49ers plays. When at his best late in 2022, San Fran gave him 90% or more of their tight end snaps in 11 of his 18 games. His best success came over four games (4/93/2, 6/120/2, 4/23/1, and 4/29/2) late last season with Brock Purdy behind center. Kittle had five catches or more in only four matchups (5/47, 8/83, 6/98/1, and 6/120/2) with only one double-digit target game (10). 

The Rams finished 13th in…

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Christian McCaffrey
DFS

Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report

September 15, 2023 Shawn Childs

After the first week of the NFL season, seven running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. There were 21 other backs that finished between 10.00 and 17.50 fantasy points. This Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report […]

After the first week of the NFL season, seven running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. There were 21 other backs that finished between 10.00 and 17.50 fantasy points. This Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report will help identify winning plays to target in Week 2. 

The Chargers (40/234/3) had the most success running the ball, followed by Cleveland (40/206/1), San Francisco (34/188/1), and the Jets (28/172/1). The 16 games resulted in 22 scores on the ground, with four offenses hitting pay dirt three times (LAR, LAC, BAL, and DAL). The Vikings had the worst rushing offense (17/41), while Pittsburgh (10/41) and Las Vegas (29/61) ranked 31st and 30th.j

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s  Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $8,900/FD – $9,500)

It took McCaffrey one game (169 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 25 touches) to show his edge at the running back position. He hit on a 65-yard score to set up his great day. The 49ers had him in the field for 85% of their snaps. That was a total he only hit three times in 2022 with San Francisco. Last year, McCaffrey averaged 20.98 FPPG in PPR formats, with his one impact game (183 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) coming on the road against the Rams. 

Los Angeles was league-average defending running backs in 2022 (404/1,753/12 with 79 catches for 665 yards and two scores on 103 targets). Three offenses posted more than 40.00 fantasy points from their backs.

McCaffrey is a high-floor player. But his high salary requires well over 30.00 fantasy points to be in play in Week 2. Ultimately, any decision to play him comes from finding value at other positions…

 

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

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