Thursday night with a 9 game slate. Listed in this article I have my favorite pitching options with a value arm and a DarkHorse. I changed up the hitting a bit and listed my favorite teams to target with a few low ownership options and some value bats to add in.
PITCHERS
Pitchers stats for last 30 days
Ryan Yarbrough
It looks like the Rays are letting Yarbrough pitch a bit deeper into games. In his last 2 starts he has been sharp going 6.1 & 8.1 innings and only allowing 6 hits, 0 runs while striking out 18 hitters in that timeframe. On the year he has been very good vs hitters from both sides of the plate (vs LHHs .276 wOBA, 1 HR/9, 28% HC- vs RHH’s .241 wOBA, .6 HR/9, 29% HC rate). The current Os lineup has a 29% K rate against LHP. This should be another very good game for him and I can see Yarbrough going 7 innings allowing a run with 8-9 Ks
*Also consider Garrett Cole & Mile Soroka. Both have very good matchups tonight.
VALUE ARM
Miles Mikolos
Mikolos has been much better at home this year with a 2.43 ERA vs 6.5O on the road. His HR rate is down as well .8 HRs/9 at home along with a 50% ground ball rate. The Rockies are not the same team on the road. He usually goes around 6 innings and has thrown a complete game shut out against the Pirates earlier this year. Looking at 6-7 innings 1 ER and 7 Ks.
DARK HORSE
Ariel Jurado
The White Sox have a run total over 5, so I can see people shying way from Jurado tonight. Also, he has not pitched well most of the year. The White Sox have not hit well as of late vs RHP with a .233 average and 25% K rate over the last 14 days. They should get Moncada back tonight, but I still think Jurado does well enough to pay off his 5k price. He has done better on the road with giving up HR(2.5 at home to 1.4 on the road to RHH’s) and 1/9 to LHHs on the road. His ground ball rate is back up to 55% in August and has been over 50% on the road. This will help limit the long ball. In 24 at bats held some of this team to a .213 average allowing 0 HRs. I don’t think he gets out clean(Jiminez scares me the most here and would not shock me to see him go yard), but I see him going 5 innings 2 ERs and 5-6 Ks paying off his price. The DarkHorse has some risk along with it and I only recommend using them in a 2nd lineup and or mass-multi entry. Should get around 5% or less ownership and potential 15-18 FPs.
TEAM/S + Mini stacks
LA Dodgers vs Jacob Waguespack
Mainly looking at the RHHs here as Waguespack has allowed close to a .400 wOBA, 2.5 HRs/9 and 50% HC to them.
*Justin Turner, AJ Pollack, Will Smith(has been crushing RHP) amens Kike who hits well vs RHP at home.
*Pollack, Smith & Turner would be my favorite 3. Hernandez next. Even though Waguespack has been good vs LHHs. Bellinger and Muncy have both been hitting well and could easily take him deep. Also Muncy(good price), Bellinger, Seager vs bullpen.
Atlanta Braves vs Sandy Alcantara
*Freeman, Albies, Joyce would be my main focus here. Lefties have hit better vs Alcantara. Joyce & Freeman have been biting the ball well as of late along with Donaldson and Hechavarria. Acuna has been crushing vs the Marlins pitching staff.
Houstos Astros vs Jordan Zimmerman
Zimmerman actually pitched well last game vs the Rays, but he is facing one of the best hitting teams tonight. Value at the bottom of the order. Guriell is expensive but usually under owned. Reddick, Toro, Chirinos or Maldonado.
*Austin Meadows/Pham/Choi- nice park shift power upside with these 3 in this matchup.
Low ownership
NY Mets vs Aaron Civale
Civale has pitched well so far, but the data shows some regression soon. The Mets have been one of the hottest hitting teams over the past 14 days posting a .310 average.
*Alonso, Rosario, JD Davis have all been swinging hot bats. Would add Conforto in the mix.
Hot weather with some wind blowing out tonight in NY.
VALUE BATS
Elloy Jiminez
Logan Forsythe
Kolton Wong- hitting 2nd. Going yard today. Mini stack with Goldschmidt (BvP).
Tyler Flowers
Willy Adames
Rafael Ortega
**Good Luck and Stay Cashing
