Massive 15 game slate with a lot of choices and ways to go. In this article I have listed my favorite pitching options along with a few teams and some bats that are in good spots.
PITCHERS
Aaron Nola
Nola has pitched well as of late putting up 30 or more DK pts in 3 of his last 6 games and 24 or more in 5 of the 6. The one game he had some problems was against the left handed heavy Dodgers where he gave up 3 HRs over 5 innings. Tonight he that has struggled vs RHP as of late and on the year posting around a .240 average and a 26% K rate. This team also struggles against the curve-ball with only one player over a .200 ISO and 2 players with over a .300 wOBA against this pitch. I can see him going 7 innings allowing 4-5 hits 1 ER and 9 Ks.
Other Options:
Chris Sale vs TB Rays in a park that favors pitchers. Sale high K pitcher going against a team that has struck out at a 30% clip vs LHP.
Yu Darvish vs SF Giants in a park that favors pitchers. Darvish has done a better job at reducing his walks and becoming a bit more efficient. Giants do not have a lot of power, especially at home.
VALUE ARM
Merrill Kelly
Kelly has pitched very well at home his year posting a 2.83 ERA and right around 1HR/9. The Os don’t hit well on the road vs RHP on the year and over the past 30 days they have a .200 average with a 28% K rate. They also don’t match up well vs Kelly’s pitch types. Looking at 6 innings 1-2 ERs and 6 Ks.
TEAM/S
* Hitters listed in order of preference.
LA Dodgers (Late night Hammah!)
Dodgers will face the Angels tonight at home and will see Taylor Cole for a few innings and then Felix Pena.
Pena vs LHP this year: .270 average, .371 wOBA, 2.4 HRs/9 and 41% HC.
Pena’s top 2 pitches: Slider & Sinker (70%)- Pederson and Bellinger have over a .300 ISO vs the slider and Muncy, Seager and Verdugo have over a .200 ISO. Against the sinker Muncy has close to a .500 wOBA and over a .400 ISO, while Pederson, Verdugo and Bellinger all have over a .300 ISO.
3 man stack: Muncy, Pederson, Verdugo
4 man stack: Muncy, Pederson, Verdugo, Seager
5 man stack: Muncy, Pederson, Verdugo, Seager, Hernandez (hits well vs RHP at home and Pena allowing 2.4 HRs/9 to RHHs on the road. Also .455 average with 2HRs over last 7 games).
*Bellinger is definitely in play as well highest price Dodger right now. Pollack also has been swinging a hot bat.
SD Padres
The Padres are on the road tonight and face Jason Vargas. On the year Vargas has been decent, but I see the Padres doing some damage to him tonight. Over the last 2 games Vargas has allowed 9 runs over 11 innings along with 2 HRs in each of those games. The Padres have a good amount of power bats that hit well vs LHP and vs Vargas’s pitch types. Vargas does not throw hard at all with his FB running around 85 MPH with that pitch he throws in a changeup, sinker and some curveballs. Most of the Padres lineup murder fastballs under 90 MPH. The changeup is his next highest thrown pitch and Renfroe, Machado and Reyes all hit that pitch very well. Renfroe hits just all of Vargas pitch types well along with the sinker where he has close to a .500 wOBA and .400 ISO. Mets bullpen has allowed a 5.40 ERA and 1.8 HRs/9 over last 30 days.
Core 3: Renfroe, Machado, Reyes
Core 4: Renfroe, Machado, Reyes, Mejia
Core 5: Renfroe, Machado, Reyes, Mejia, Urias
*Margot has been hitting the ball well as of late and in play along with Tatis.
*Strong consideration for the Astros vs Fiers
STL Cardinals- low ownership multi-entry
Cardinals face Chris Archer tonight who has pitched a bit better as of late, but still allowing runs and HRs. On the year Archer is allowing a .346 wOBA, 2HRs/9, 40% HC to RHHs and a 2.4 HRs/9 with a 45% HC and 45 % FB rate to LHHs. The Cardinals have some power bats that could take Archer deep tonight. O’Neill matches up well vs most of Archers pitch types. Goldschmidt is starting to show some power again. DeJong has power upside vs RHP. On the left side Edman and Fowler 1/2 both and Wong.
Options 1: O’Neill, Goldschmidt, Wong
Option 2: O’Neill, Gold, Folwer
Option 3: Edman, Fowler, O’Neill
FAVORITE BATS outside of favorite Teams
Josh Donaldson
Donaldson has been hitting the ball well as of late and is an above average hitter vs LHP. His battered ball stats over that lat 15 days are way up with a 60% HC, which is + 13 % on the year, exit velocity at 101 MPH (+8 MPH), and FB ratio +12 %. Tonight he faces Danny Duffy who throws the slider at a 40% clip and Donaldson has done very well vs this pitch along with Albies and Acuna. Can stack Donaldson, Albies, Riley who all hit LHP very well or Acuna, Swanson and Donaldson.
Josh Bell
Bell has been a bit cold as of late especially on the power side, but tonight he gets an excellent matchup to break his HR slump. Dakota Hudson comes to town allowing a .296 average, .380 wOBA, 46 % HC to LHHs on the year and a 2.3 HRs/9 to LHHs on the road. Hudson throws mostly sinkers and Bell has done very well vs this pitch with over a .400 wOBA and .200 ISO.
VALUE BATS
Cheslor Cuthbert 3B-BvP + hits sinker well.
Scootah Gennett-2B- crushes sinkers.
Neil Walker-1B
Jason Kipnis-2B
Max Stassi- C
Al Diaz- 1B/2B
Jake Marisnick- OF hits RHP well at home.
Freddy Galvis- SS
