This article is a over view of my favorite plays on tonight’s 15 game slate. I have chosen a few lower cost arms to help get in some of the higher priced bats. Along with pitchers I have a few of my favorite teams and bats with some value bats to help out.
*Utilize this article along with the Dongers club by Steve Renner and The Cylce by Chris Rose.
PITCHERS
Jakob Junis
Junis has pitched well in 3 of his last 4 games and gets an excellent matchup tonight vs the Tigers. They are one of the worst teams vs RHP this year batting .230 with a 27% K rate. Junis does a good job vs RHHs holding them to a .236 average and limits HRs. Tigers are right handed heavy.
Dakota Hudson
Hudson is an elite ground ball pitcher with a 73% GB rate to RHHs and 50% to LHHs. He limits right handed bats to a .230 average and has only allowed 1 HR. He does have some issues with LHHs but the Marlins don’t have many of them. Excellent spot and excellent park. Looking at 6 innings 4 Ks and 1 ER.
DARK HORSE
Martin Perez
Perez has not pitched well and of late, but I like him to bounce back tonight vs the Mariners. They struggle vs LHP with a .239 average and 27% K rate. This year Perez has done a good job limiting power vs both sides of he plate. Perez has pitched well with Garver behind the plate and he is back from the DL, so this will help some. Nice K spot tonight and looking at 6 innings 8Ks and 2 ERs.
TEAM/S
Minnesota Twins
vs Mike Leake- allowed 18 HRs this year 9 to each side of the plate. .338 wOBA to both sides of the plate. 1.8 HRs/9 to LHHs, 2.3 HRs/9 to RHHs. Very low K rate to RHHs.
Twins have the most HRs vs RHP this year at 97 and one of the highest batting averages. Excellent mathcup at home for them vs Leake tonight. The whole lineup has power upside in this matchup. Prices have come down on the Twins as of late making them easier to lock in. They could easily hit 4-5 HRs tonight. Sano, Cron and Schoop are my favorites to go yard,
Core: Sano, Cruz, Buxton, Rosario.
Kepler, Polanco
Value: Schoop, Gonzalez (both exellent plays tonight).
Lower owned– Sano, Gonzalez, Schoop, Buxton.
Washington Nationals
vs Manny Banuelos- allowed over a .400 wOBA to both sides of the plate with a 1.7 HRs/9 to LHHs and a 2.8 HRs/9 to RHHs.
Nats are one of the best hitting teams vs LHP with a .285 average, .354 wOBA and close to a .200 ISO.
Core: Dozier (.355 ISO vs LHP favorite), Turner on fire, Rendon and Kendrick.
Sneaky: Robles(.255 ISO vs LHP). Soto
Low Ownership Team
SD Padres
This is not the best park for power and this is why most will stay away, but excellent matchup for the Padres tonight and could see 2-3 HRs from them.
vs Tyler Beede- limited career stats are not good at all .445 wOBA with a 2.45 HRs/9 to LHHs and .372 wOBA to RHHs.
Padres have power upside vs a sub par RHP.
CORE: Renfroe or Reyes who ever makes lineup Both could easily go deep in this park, Tatis, Myers, Machado
Value: Hosmer, Kinsler & Hedges if he makes the lienup.
BATS
Mookie Betts
Betts is actually hitting much better vs RHP this year with just shy of .400 wOBA, .222 ISO and 44% HC. He faces Jurado tonight who throws close to 40% fastballs and Betts crushes this pitch at over a .300 ISO. Nice spot for Betts, JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts against Jurado tonight. Could see HRs from all 3 tonight.
David Peralta
Another good spot for the DBack lefties as the face Jake Arrieta who has struggle vs them. Arrieta has allowed a .394 wOBA, 2.7 HRs/9 and 44% HC to LHHs this year. Peralta has hit very well vs rhp with a .324 average, .284 ISO and 44% HC. Excellent hitters park and can play with Escobar, Marte and Vargas.
Brandon Lowe
Lowe has been on fire as of late and faces Mike Fiers tonight who is prone to the long ball. Fiers actually gives up more HRs to RHHs which puts Pham, Garcia and Adames in play along with Meadows and Choi. Lowe is my favorite and can play 1-3 Rays tonight along with him. Pham, Lowe, Adames or Pham, Lowe, Choi my favorites.
VALUE BATS
Jackie Bradley Jr.-still hitting the ball hard and streak is not done yet. HR tonight.
Nick Markakis
Jacboy Jones
CarGo Boooooooooom! (AKA Carlos Gonzalez) – still underpriced and he goes yard tonight back in his old park.
Danny Jansen– punt catcher dirt cheap and facing a lefty.
Ozzie Albies– starting to hit the ball well agian.
Didi Gregororius– LvL dong.
Brock Holt– matches up well vs Jurado.
