It is Thursday and the slate has 6 games! Yeah buddy. The Sixers play the Warriors and have the highest total on the slate. The one thing to look at right now is the Warrior prices have dropped for most of the players and this is mainly due to Boogie taking some usage away from the other starters. Curry under 9k on DK, Durant 9.1k, Thompson under 6K and Green 6.2k. This game could be closer than the spread suggests and these lower price tags make these Warriors very interesting. On the other side Joel Embiid is the highest priced center on the slate, but his price has actually come down a bit even though he has put up 63, 64 & 52 over the past 3 games. Jimmy Butler is starting play handle the ball a bit more and in shows with the increase in assists over the past few games. Ben Simmons price has come down to 8.6K on DK making him an intriguing play in this game.
The Raptors/Bucks game comes in with a total of 229.5 and a spread of 2.5. This game has the 2nd fastest pace on the slate and is the first game that will be televised tonight(Sixers/Warriors is the other). Giannis went off the last time these 2 teams met with 43 points, 18 rebounds and 4 assists. He is the main player I have interest in on the Bucks. On the other side Kawhi Leonard put up 30/6/6 along with 5 steals for a total of 56 FPs. On DK Kyle Lowry is listed at a low 7,1K and worth a look.
The Lakers/Clippers game will run with the fastest pace on the slate. As of now Kuzma, Hart are listed as questionable for the Lakers & Avery Bradley is listed as questionable for the Clippers. This news could change a few things and listed below. This game could get over looked due to the 2 games listed above. Fast pace and poor defense makes this a sneaky late night hammer.
- Al lot of the info in this article uses DK pricing and FPs, but the plays can be used on both sites unless specifically noted.
DvP Chart over the last 2 weeks. (g)= games played. First column for each position is the amount of FPs allowed and the second column is how they rank vs the NBA. Lakers have been one of the worst defensive teams as of late allowing 245 FPs, 15 more than any other team on the slate. Also, they are ranked in the top 8 or above in FP allowed for each position. Few other spots to look at is the Magic rank last vs PG, the Nets are still getting crushed by PF/C and the Spurs, yes the Spurs have been a sup-par defensive team as of late(Rank 24th vs PG, 27th vs SG and 27th vs C). Nets may be a contrarian team to use players from tonight.
Questionable s/What-IFs
*Kyle Kuzma/Josh Hart- If either of these players sits it could open up more usage and minutes for a few players. If Kuzma sits out again then Brandon Ingram should continue excel. This game will be fast paced with a lot of opportunities, so KCP could see a bit more action if Hart sits out. KCP will have more open looks at the 3 ball.
*Avery Bradley- if Bradley sits out Beverly should be even more locked in on his minutes. Lou Williams should see an increase as well and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would see an increase as well and worth a look vs the Lakers. If Bradley plays then he is worth a look at his price vs the Lakers.
*Tyreke Evans- if Evan sits out then we should see a combination of Aaron Holiday, Corey Joseph and Edmond Sumner split minutes. They are all priced with in a few hundred dollars of each other on DK. *Reggie Bullock- If Bullock sits out then Luke Kennard and Stanlely Johnson become viable as they both played well in his absence last game.
The Mavs and Knicks just made a big trade today and DSJ, Wesley Mathews and DeAndre Jordan were all traded.
*Mavs roster right now is Harris, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Merji, Brunson, Nowitzki, Barnes, Broekhoff. They will provide a lot of value tonight.
Point Guard
Steph Curry
Curry should pick up Butler defense, but the Warriors are pretty good at getting him open shots. Fast pace game where he should excel and like his lower price.
Reggie Jackson
Jackson has played over 30 minutes in each of the last 3 games and posted 29 or more FPS in all 3 of them, while he price has stayed the same(6x-8x in that timeframe). The increase and steady minutes are mostly due to Ish Smith being out and Jackson the only true PG the Pistons have. His matchup is solid tonight as the Mavericks weak spot is against the PG position.
Daren Collison
VALUE
Patrick Beverly
Playing at an elite level right now. Price still reasonable on DK.
Devin Harris
Should get a ton of run with the trade. Attack Pistons with guards.
Shooting Guard
Luka Doncic
A disappointing night for Doncic vs the Knicks with 33 FPs last night. Hopefully, this pulls people off him because this is a very good spot for him vs the Pistons where he just dropped 59.5 FPs on them a week ago. He was just shy of a triple/double. Currently listed as doubtful- If Doncic sits then DSJ becomes a lock with a + 3% usage bump. Harrison Barnes picks up 3% bump as well. Wesley Matthews actually gets the largest bump at 9%. Keep an eye on his status.
Klay Thompson
My projections system likes Klay the Opto Klay. Price down and should get a lot of shots off vs Redick.
Lou Williams
Williams usage over the past 5 games with Gallinari out is right around 35%. Last time he played the Lakers he dropped 50 FPs, scoring 36 real points.
VALUE
Danny Green
Green is a 3 point specialist( with some defensive skills. The Bucks allow a good amount of 3 points shot attempts putting Green in a good spot at only 4.2K on DK. Last 2 games vs the Bucks 27 & 28 FPs.
Jalen Brunson
Mavs limited should start and play 25-30 minutes.
Small Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Put up 70 FPs vs Raptors last time out.
Kawhi Leonard
Has played well vs the Bucks in the last 2 games.
Harrison Barnes
Potentially the only player left from the staring five that will play tonight. Doncic is doubtful.
VALUE
Andre Iguodala
Has played well as of late hitting value in 4 straight games with an upside of 8.5x in that timeframe.
Dorian Finney-Smith
Mavs limited.
Power Forward
Pascal Siakam & Serge Ibaka
Siakam and Ibaka are both similarly priced and have done well in all 3 meetings vs the Bucks. Ibaka put up 45/45/45 & Siakam 45/35/44 in the 3 games.
Draymond Green
Green’s price has gradually decreased, but his production has stayed right around the same with Boogie in the lineup. This game will run fast, which opens up more opportunities for shots/rebounds & assists. This is the type of game where Green does well in and possesses triple/double upside just about every night. I can see him posting one tonight. The one area where the Sixers have been weak defensively has been against PFs.
LaMarcus Aldridge
VALUE
Dwight Powell & Maxi Kleber
Mavs are limited tonight and both these guys should get 25 minutes or so. Powell has the higher upside with the lower price. You can play Powell at F and Kleber at C on DK.
Center
Joel Embiid
Embiid vs Boogie tonight. This should be fun to watch tonight. Hit value in 6 straight games and still prices right around 10k. This is a game Embiid could flash upside in.
Andre Drummond
The price is dropping for Drummond on DK and now is the best time to play him at only 8.1K. Over the last two games, one in which he played the Mavericks, Drummond posted 49.75 & 48.75 DK points (6x at his current price). Drummond is at home tonight where he has shown to play a bit better (33.3minutes, 17.5 points, 15.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.8 steals & 1,9 blocks @ home vs 32.9 minutes, 15.5 points. 13.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.4 steals & 1.4 blocks). This slight increase in home/away stats along with his recent performance could put Drummond at 7-8x tonight at what I think could be low ownership making him an excellent GPP play.
VALUE
Risk/Reward
Ivaca Zubac
This is an elite matchup for the Lakers center. Always risky with minutes, but can take a chance on Zubac if he starts.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Avery Bradley
SGA if Bradley is out.
Joe Harris
Davis Bertans
Another Excellent matchup and playing solid minutes.
