MLB Data Driven Picks 5/23

Pitcher Stats Breakdown


*Pitching Stat Chart-Note Gossett, Covey and Gohara stats are for career(2017,2018).

*Green= stats are in favor of the pitcher, White=mid line, Red= in favor of the batters.

Utilize this tool to help pick out other pitching options.


Listed below are some of my favorite pitching matchups using the Pitching Tool.

*Pitcher stats splits vs left and right handed hitters.

*Below is the opponent along with opponent runs and stats vs pitchers handiness.

*Right is the batters the pitcher will have vs the handiness of the the pitcher.

Park= Park rating. Lower numbers favor Pitcher.

Also, below the pitching options are the teams that have good matchups vs pitchers.


Pitchers vs Team

Jacob deGrom vs Marlins

Breakdown-Elite stats vs RHH(Right Handed Hitters) 51% GB rate, 12.4 K/9 ZERO HRs allowed so far and a low .202 average against. He also does well vs LHH(Left Handed Hitters) 11.8K/9, .207 average against and only .7 HR/9.  Marlins are only batting .224 vs RHP and strike out at a 24.3% clip.


Kyle Freeland vs Dodgers 

Breakdown-  Ground ball pitcher (52% to LHHs & 48% to RHHs). Limits Hard Contact(HC under 27% vs RH me LHHs.)  Limits HRs-under 1.1. Also, Dodgers have struggled vs LHP this year .228 average and 22% K rate. Park rating slightly favors the pitcher.


Luiz Gohara vs Phillies

Breakdown- Phillies strike out at a 26.4% clip vs RHP and Gohara has show a high K rate in both the Major and Minor league (over 10k/9). In 29 innings he has only given up .9 HR/9 and in limited innings vs LHHs he has done well. I do not expect him to go deep into the game maybe 5-6 innings tops, but do expect 6+ Ks. Potential risk, but could pay off at his 6K price on FD.


Teams/Players  vs Pitcher


Orioles vs Dylan Covey                                                                                                                                          

Manny Machado has been crushing RHP posting a .356 avg with 10 HRs and .447 wOBA, .295 ISO.

Adam Jones has 7 HRs and a .230 ISO vs RHP.

Pedro Alvarez has 7 HRs and a .280 ISO vs RHP.

Trey Mancini and Mark Trumbo both hit the ball hard vs RHP.

Dylan Covey in his short career has allowed a .429 wOBA, 40% HC Nd 2.5 HRs/9 to RHHs.


Mariners vs Daniel Gossett                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Mitch Haniger  is hitting well this year and especially vs RHP with a .373 wOBA, .292 ISO. 42% HC and 9 HRs.

Jean Segura has a .308 average with 3 HRs.

Mike Zunino has power upside vs RHP with .274 ISO

Daniel Gossett has allowed a .295 average, .380 wOBA, 37% HC and 2.3 HR/9 to RHHs.


Pirates vs Homer Bailey                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Pirates LHHs have an elite matchup- Gregory Polanco has 7 HRs to go along with .341 wOBA and .242 ISO.

Corey Dickerson .298 avg with 5 HRs and .206 ISO    

Austin Meadows is crushing the ball right now and still cheap.

Homer Bailey has allowed a .400 wOBA, 43% Fly ball rate along with 2.8 HRs/9 to LHHs. Great park for hitters so stack up these Pirate lefties.


White Sox vs Alex Cobb     

Jose Abreu hits very well vs RHP .313 avg,  with 6HRs and .393 wOBA, .232 ISO, 40,5% HC

Yoan Moncada is another White Sox who hits well vs RHP .304 avg, 6 HRs and .407 wOBA, .265 ISO and .40% HC.

Matt Davidson has reverse splts and with power upside vs RHP .389 wOBA, .355 ISO and 44.5%HC.

Daniel Palka has some power vs RHP with a .347 wOBA, .315 ISO and 3 HRs in 54 at bats.

Alex Cobb has struggled this year. (.455 avg to LHHsand .309 to RHHs) along with 35% and over HC to both sides. Great matchup for White Sox and they may be a sneaky option tonight.


Low Ownership Plays (Updated 4;30)

Chad PinderR0.4580.24376.00%3720.378

Pinder vs LHP under 5% ownership

Mark CanhaR0.4560.39041.94%4140.341

Canha vs LHP under 5% ownership.

Scooter GennettL0.3820.19740.57%12760.323

Gennett vs RHP