Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9 We enter the second half of the 2024 season with an AFC battle that has lost luster. The Houston Texans are 6-2 but are being hit hard by the injury bug. Meanwhile, the 2-6 […]
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9
We enter the second half of the 2024 season with an AFC battle that has lost luster. The Houston Texans are 6-2 but are being hit hard by the injury bug. Meanwhile, the 2-6 Jets are falling apart and against the wall. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9 breaks down everything fantasy football fans need to know about this week’s game.
Although the Texans are among the AFC favorites, they enter this contest severely depleted. Down Nico Collins and now Stefon Diggs, Bobby Slowik, and Houston’s offense will have little time to reinvent themselves against a strong Jets defense.
Speaking of the Jets, firing Robert Saleh didn’t fix New York’s issues. The Jets have lost five straight games to fall into last place in the weak AFC East. There is significant pressure on Aaron Rodgers and company to salvage what increasingly looks like a lost season.
The over/under opened at 45 but has fallen three points. Meanwhile, the Jets are oddly favored by 1.5 points.
Matchup
TEAM
OFFENSE
PASS
RUSH
YDS/PLAY
POINTS
Houston Texans
9
7
15
16
11
New York Jets
18
10
30
23
23
Despite the injuries, the Texans are still a top-10 overall offense. QB C.J. Stroud hasn’t been as effective as he was in Year One but Houston boasts a balanced offense just outside the elite scoring units.
However, injuries and poor offensive line play have been an issue for DeMeco Ryan’s club. Houston’s beleaguered O-line ranks 25th in pass-block win rate and 30th in run-block win rate. The latter is a particular concern against a New York defense that ranks fifth in run-stop win rate.
Meanwhile, seeing the Jets rank 30th in rushing with two young stud running backs is a surprise. However, like the Texans, New York has offensive line issues. QB Aaron Rodgers is constantly under duress and that’s a big problem against a fearsome Houston pass rush with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.
Houston’s defense ranks second in win rate versus the run and fourth versus the pass. That’s going to be a problem for this Jets’ offense.
Houston Offense
After a stellar rookie campaign, C.J. Stroud sits at 13th in QB rating after eight games. Defenses have started pressuring Stroud,
How will Thursday’s Texans vs. Jets game go?
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Week 13 NFL Quarterback Report Last week, the top-tier quarterbacks all posted impact games. Josh Allen (44.05) led the way in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues while outdueling Jalen Hurts (38.50). Dak Prescott (35.55) continued his midseason rise, […]
Week 13 NFL Quarterback Report
Last week, the top-tier quarterbacks all posted impact games. Josh Allen (44.05) led the way in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues while outdueling Jalen Hurts (38.50). Dak Prescott (35.55) continued his midseason rise, as did C.J. Stroud (33.90). Seven other quarterbacks scored between 21.00 and 29.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 12 weeks:
The passing attack for the Eagles lost momentum over their last three games (207/2, 150/0, and 200/3). But Hurts held form by his success on the ground (36/130/5). Philadelphia is in the middle of a challenging five-game run (DAL, @KC, BUF, SF, and @DAL). Hurts had a floor of 25.00 fantasy points in seven of his last eight matchups while offering three impact games (31.35, 31.55, and 38.50). Last year, the 49ers held him to 160 combined yards with one rushing touchdown.
San Francisco has the fourth-best defense (15.55 FPPG) defending quarterbacks, with three offenses (NYG – 313/2, MIN – 377/2, and CIN – 326/3) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They play well vs. the run, and quarterbacks gain only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Three teams (LAR – 24/243, MIN – 17/241/2, and CIN – 21/235/3) gained more than 200 yards with their wideouts.
Hurts has a high floor, and the Eagles need him to play well to beat the 49ers. His matchup isn’t ideal for the daily games unless the Eagles throw the ball much better. I don’t see him scoring 33.00 fantasy points, which is needed to fill his salary bucket.
C.J. Stroud, Hou (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,000)
Stroud’s success over the last four weeks (1,530/12) pushed him to third in quarterback scoring (264.50). His best play continues…
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Week 9 NFL Quarterback Report Last week, five quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points, with Sam Howell (35.95) leading the way. Dak Prescott (32.10) and Joe Burrow (30.45) had correction games, lifting them to 14th and 20th in the […]
Week 9 Quarterback Report
Last week, five quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points, with Sam Howell (35.95) leading the way. Dak Prescott (32.10) and Joe Burrow (30.45) had correction games, lifting them to 14th and 20th in the quarterback rankings. Josh Allen (33.30) and Jalen Hurts (31.55) produced top-tier stats for the second consecutive week. Will Levis put his name on the fantasy map after an impact showing (249/4) in his first career NFL start. Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after eight weeks by scoring average in four-point passing touchdown leagues:
Josh Allen (27.14)
Jalen Hurts (26.50)
Justin Herbert (24.66)
Patrick Mahomes (23.41)
Tua Tagovailoa (23.34).
Eleven quarterbacks are averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points per game.
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 9 NFL Quarterback Report.
Top Tier Options
Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)
Over the last six games, Hurts averaged 331 combined yards with strength in his completion rate (67.7) and yards per pass attempt (7.9). His lacking area was passing touchdowns before gaining momentum in this area over his last two starts (2 and 4). He is on pace to gain 5,143 yards with 40 touchdowns. Last season, Hurts had a quiet game (182/2) at home vs. Dallas while sitting out his road matchup.
The Cowboys have the third-best quarterback defense (16.43 FPPG), with one team (SF – 252/4) having success. Their pass rush (18 sacks) hasn’t been imposing over the last five matchups (2, 2, 1, 1, and 2). But they’ve created 16 turnovers on the season, with five leading to touchdowns. Dallas started the year by facing four below-par offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE). However, they somehow lost to the Cardinals.
Hurts rides only as high as A.J. Brown can take him. He has strength in his secondary receiving options and a high floor scoring rushing touchdowns, but their success scoring touchdowns (21 over 85 possessions – 24.7%) is below their path in 2022 (59 over 186 possessions – 31.7%). This matchup isn’t ideal, but Hurts has the offensive tools to shine in this against-the-grain matchup.
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2023 Houston Texans Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]
2023 Houston Texans Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championshipdynasty, redraft, or high-stakessquad, FullTime Fantasy memberswill have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Houston Texans Outlook.
— Offense —
Houston ran the ball 40.7% of the time last season due to losing in many games. Despite needing to chase on the scoreboard, they averaged only 34.1 passes per game. Overall, the Texans had the worst offense in the league in combined yards. A new coaching staff and rookie quarterback should help Houston push higher up the offensive rankings in 2023.
— Quarterback —
C.J. Stroud
Over his two seasons as a starter in college, Stroud passed for 8,123 yards over 25 games with 85 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His completion rate (69.3) graded well while averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt. Over this span, Stroud offers minimal value in the run game (79/88).
He passed for more than 400 yards in five matchups (484/3, 406/5, 405/2, 432/6, and 573/6) in 2021. Last season, Stroud failed to reach that threshold in any matchup despite delivering four more touchdowns in seven games.
Fantasy Outlook: The Texans have an 11-38-1 record over the past three seasons. Their rebuild process starts with better quarterback play, and their 2023 coaching staff invested in Stroud. He will be behind center in Week 1 if his training camp goes well. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Stroud is the 26th-ranked quarterback.
Davis Mills
Mills passed for 3,468 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over his final 13 games at Stanford. His completion rate (65.5) and yards per pass attempt (7.9) ranked well. He finished his college career with 63 rushes for 86 yards and three touchdowns.
Mills is a pocket passer with the arm to deliver passes on time all over the field. However, his lack of experience hinders his pocket presence and reading defenses. Mills projects to have a higher ceiling while needing to prove he can handle surveying the whole field and maintain toughness under duress in the pocket.
In his first season with Houston, Mills went 2-9 over 13 games. He passed for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while offering strength in his completion rate (66.8). His best play passing the ball came in four home starts (312/3, 310/2, 331/1, and 301/3). Unfortunately, Mills gained only 6.8 yards per pass attempt with 31 sacks.
His game regressed in his second year with the Texans. Mills saw his completion rate (61.0) fall while tossing 15 passes to the other team. He finished with 3,226 combined yards over 15 games with 19 touchdowns. Mills passed for fewer than 200 yards in eight of his matchups while passing for more than 300 yards in one game (319/1). His best fantasy outcome came in Week 18 (298/3).
Fantasy Outlook: Mills has 26 career starts, giving him the inside track to start for Houston in Week 1. He gained more than 20 yards on 17.1% of his 292 completion in 2022, despite gaining only 6.5 yards per pass for the year. From a fantasy perspective, Mills will be found in the free-agent pool in most formats.
Other Options: Case Keenum
— Running Backs —
For the second consecutive season, the running back position had a significant role in the Texans’ offense. They finished with 438 touches (462 in 2021), despite gaining only 3.8 yards per rush and 5.4 yards per catch. Their back gained 1,805 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 98 catches, or 19.21 FPPG in PPR formats.
Dameon Pierce
The Gators used Pierce as a change-of-pace runner over four seasons. He rushed for 1,806 yards and 23 touchdowns on 329 carries in his career, with his best value coming in 2021 (100/574/13). His play in the passing game improved over the past two years (17/156/1 and 19/216/3) while gaining 10.3 yards per catch.
Pierce has a unique running style with short jabby steps in traffic. When given a free run, his strides open up, leading to acceleration and sneaky speed over the short areas of the field. He runs through contact with the vision to make good decisions in space. Pierce brings strength to the table while lacking difference-maker acceleration over the long field. However, he has a feel for open space in the passing game.
In his rookie seasons, he gained 1,104 combined yards with five touchdowns and 30 catches over 13 games. Pierce ranked 26th in running back scoring (168.40) in PPR formats. His best run came from Week 3 and Week 5 (60/310/3 with 11 catches for 43 yards). He lost his mojo in Week 11 (17 combined yards with two catches) and Week 12 (16 combined yards with three catches) while failing to score more than 16.00 fantasy points in his final eight starts. Pierce missed the last four weeks with an ankle injury.
Fantasy Outlook: Houston upgraded their backup running back in the offseason, pointing to fewer chances in 2023. Pierce ranks 20th in the early draft season at running back. I’ll pencil him in for 60% of the rushing opportunity and about half of the pass-catching chances. My starting point is 1,000 combined yards with five to seven scores and 25 catches.
Devin Singletary
In his third season with the Bills, Singletary emerged as their top running back by snap count (830 – 63.0%). He finished with a career-high in touches (228), combined yards (1,098), touchdowns (8), and catches (40). Singletary ranked 19th in running scoring (198.00) in PPR leagues. His best value came over his final seven games (630 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 21 catches) on 18.1 touches per game. His risk comes from his low bar and production over his first 12 games (99.3 fantasy points – 8.28 per game).
Last year, Singletary posted almost identical stats (1,099 combined yards with six touchdowns and 38 catches) as 2021 on 215 touches. He slipped to 23rd in running back scoring (180.90 fantasy points). He scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in two games (24.10 and 20.50), but Singletary posted fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in nine contests.
Fantasy Outlook: The downgrade in the overall offense will lead to…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE TEXANS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
