2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Josh Allen
Over the past three seasons, Allen has been the best fantasy quarterback in the league. Allen has produced 15,180 combined yards with 129 touchdowns. On the negative side, his interceptions have risen each year in the NFL (5, 7, 8, 10, and 12). He gains a massive edge as a runner, highlighted by his last two seasons (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). Since arriving in the NFL, Allen has had 38 rushing scores in 77 games.
After a fast start over his first six games (33.12 FPPG in four-point passing TD leagues) in 2022, he scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in only two other contests (33.45 and 39.90) over his final 12 starts of the year. In Week 9, the Jets held him to 205 passing yards with no TDs via the air. Allen also exited that game with an injured right elbow. Allen played through the issue with his regression shown in his passing yards (249.6 yards) and passing touchdowns (1.9) per game over his final 10 starts.
Buffalo still needs to develop their secondary receiving options behind Stefon Diggs (108/1,429/11 on 154 targets). This is something Allen needs to reach a higher ceiling in passing production. The addition of TE Dalton Kincaid should be a big win for the Bills’ passing game. Gabe Davis (48/836/7) must improve his catch rate (51.6 – 54.1 in his career). Also, Davis needs to eliminate drops (16 over the past two seasons) to reach a competitive WR2 status.
Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Allen ranks second behind Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Despite the appearance of greatness, his yards per pass attempt (7.4 over the past three seasons) have yet to reach an elite area. He gains plusses for his ability to run and score on the ground, along with having an elite WR1. This combination puts Allen in an elite fantasy area while potentially having another gear if the Bills’ young tight end hits the ground running and their WR2 and WR3 increase their production. With a floor of 5,000 combined yards and 40 touchdowns, he projections to be another edge in 2023. Next step: 5,400 yards and 45 scores.
Other Options: Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley
— Running Backs —
The Bills running backs finished with their most production since Josh Allen’s arrival. They set three-year highs in rushing yards (1,470), yards per rush (4.9), catches (79), split percentage (21.9), receiving yards (609), yards per catch (7.7), and targets (113) while also playing one fewer game than 2021. If Josh Allen can continue incorporating his backs in the passing game, it will allow him to extend more drives and increase his chances of producing more yards and touchdowns.
James Cook
Cook saw minimal playing time over his first three seasons in college (1,221 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 40 catches). In 2021, Georgia gave him 140 touches, leading to 1,012 combined yards with 11 scores and 27 catches. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry and 10.9 yards per catch in college.
Cook is the younger brother of Dalvin Cook but has a sleeker build (5’11” and 199 lbs.). He brings explosive speed and upside in the passing game. His challenge to get on the field on passing downs comes from his questionable value in pass protection.
In his rookie season, Cook gained 687 combined yards with three touchdowns and 21 catches on 110 touches. He finished 44th in running back scoring (106.70) in PPR formats, averaging 0.97 fantasy points per touch. His only playable fantasy games came in Week 13 (105 combined yards with six catches on 20 chances) and Week 16 (11/99/1 and one catch for nine yards). Buffalo had Cook on the field for 25.6% of their snaps last season.
Fantasy Outlook: I love the explosiveness and upside of Cook in the Bills’ offense. But his scoring output will be limited until he works his way into more touches. If healthy, Damien Harris should see the bulk of carries on early downs and at the goal line. Harris also offers closing value in the fourth quarter in tight games. Cook must hold off Nyheim Hines in the passing game to secure a 50-catch opportunity.
I expect Buffalo to get Cook between eight and 10 touches per game in 2023. That puts him on a path to gain 1,000 combined yards with 40+ catches and between five and seven TDs. His ADP (89) since April 1st in the Fantasy Football World Championship ranks him as the 29th running back selected. For reference, that running ranking scored 9.49 FPPG in PPR leagues in 2022. I expect him to outperform his current draft value.
Damien Harris
After an excellent season in 2021 (1,061 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 18 catches), Harris lost his way and opportunity last year after a Week 5 hamstring against the Lions. His season started with 53 rushes for 246 yards, three touchdowns, and seven catches for 29 yards (52.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues). Harris only touched the ball four times vs. Detroit. This was followed by minimal chances (49/205 and nine catches for 67 yards) over the next 12 matchups. Over this span, he missed six games due to hamstring, illness, and thigh issues.
With New England, Harris ran the ball more than 65% of the time inside, gaining over 2.5 yards per rush after contact. When at his best in 2021, he gained more than 100 yards in five games (23/100, 18/101/1, 14/106/2, 10/111/1, and 18/103/3), with two coming against the Bills and four at home. On the downside, Harris finished with 40 rushing yards or fewer in six starts. He only had 40 catches for 281 yards and one score in his 36 career games.
Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two seasons…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BILLS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
