ACES
- Dallas Keuchel (Astros) vs. SEA, @TEX
- Corey Kluber (Indians) vs. MIL, @DET
- Carlos Martinez (Cardinals) vs. MIA, @CIN
- James Paxton (Mariners) @HOU, @TB
- Luis Severino (Yankees) @DET, @NYM
GREEN LIGHT
Dylan Bundy (Orioles) @NYM, @TOR
Bundy has had a weird season. He’s had dominant performances and others where he looks like one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Home runs have been a problem and it’s not only at home where he has allowed nine of his 16 home runs. He has been better on the road and gets two favorable matchups. In three of his last four starts he has allowed three earned runs or fewer.
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Nate Eovaldi (Rays) @WAS, vs. SEA
Eovaldi pitched in a major league game Wednesday for the first time since 2016 after missing time due to Tommy John surgery. He threw six hitless innings, walked one and struck out four in a win over the A’s. He averaged almost 97 miles per hour with his fastball. He has always thrown hard, but has a 17 percent strikeout rate. This is a dicey play and he’s in the lower tier so be cautious.
Zack Godley (Diamondbacks) @SF, @COL
Godley hasn’t pitched to the level he did last season. The strikeout percentage has gone from 26.3 percent to 21.4 percent and the walk rate has increased from 8.5 percent to 11.2 percent. Godley has pitched better the last few starts, although he has a 2.93 ERA at home and 5.81 on the road. The start at Coors Field could scare you away, so he’s not a must start.
Kyle Hendricks (Cubs) vs. PHI, vs. PIT
Hendricks is pitching like we expected. He is 4-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP and a 19.1 percent strikeout rate and 5.1 percent walk rate. Hendricks gets two starts at home where he has a 2.38 ERA.
Sean Manaea (A’s) @TEX, vs. KC
Manaea had a 1.03 ERA in March and April and 7.18 ERA in May. Overall, he has a 3.60 ERA and that’s what I expected as a believer in Manaea. While he hasn’t been good recently, he’s only been awful in one start.
Joe Musgrove (Pirates) vs. LAD, @CHC
Musgrove missed the start of the season with a shoulder injury and has pitched well in two games since returning. In 14 innings, he has allowed 12 hits, walked four and struck out 12. He is averaging almost 94 miles per hour and he should be owned in all leagues.
Eduardo Rodriguez (Red Sox) vs. DET, vs. CWS
Rodriguez is 6-1 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 28.2 percent strikeout rate and 7.8 percent walk rate. He gets two excellent matchups and will always be in position to win with the Red Sox offense behind him.
Fernando Romero (Twins) vs. CWS, vs. LAA
After five good starts to open his career, Romero allowed eight runs and nine hits in 1.2 innings against the Royals. He faced the Angels once and pitched well.
Ross Stripling (Dodgers) @PIT, vs. ATL
As a starter, Stripling has a 2.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 31.6 percent strikeout rate, 3.8 percent walk rate, and pitched 33 innings. He has a .349 BABIP and 85.4 percent strand rate, so he’s had some bad luck. He has a 52.4 percent ground ball rate and a 22.1 percent hard hit rate as a starter. The starts have come against Arizona, San Diego twice, Washington, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Fire him up and try and deal for him.
Julio Teheran (Braves) @SD, @LAD
Teheran has a 4.91 ERA at home and 3.18 on the road. He’s prone to home runs, but more at home with a 1.64 HR/9 at home compared to 1.32 on the road.
RED LIGHT
Anthony DeSclafani (Reds) vs. COL, vs. STL
DeSclafani hasn’t pitched this season due to an oblique injury. In his last rehab start, he pitched 6.1 innings and allowed two runs, seven hits, one walk and struck out two. He’s the type of pitcher you want to see first before starting him.
Danny Duffy (Royals) @LAA, @OAK
Duffy has been awful this season, but was better in the last two starts against the Twins and Rangers. In 13.2 innings, he allowed eight hits, two runs, struck out nine and walked six. He still has an 18.6 percent strikeout rate and 10.7 percent walk rate and can’t trust him with the right-handed power bats on these teams.
Marco Estrada (Blue Jays) vs. NYY, vs. BAL
Estrada isn’t the same pitcher anymore. He has a 5.68 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He doesn’t miss many bats with a 16.5 percent strikeout rate and has a 1.84 HR/9.
Mike Fiers (Tigers) vs. NYY, vs. CLE
Fiers has a 1.81 HR/9 and against these offenses, it’s big trouble.
Kyle Freeland (Rockies) @CIN, vs. ARI
Freeland has a 2.19 ERA at home in 24.2 innings and 4.17 on the road in 41 innings.
Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox) @MIN, @BOS
Lopez has pitched some excellent games, but the underlying numbers aren’t great and he allowed eight hits and seven earned runs in 2.2 innings against the Indians in his last start. In eight of his 11 starts, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer, but the Red Sox start could be one where he blows up.
CC Sabathia (Yankees) @DET, @NYM
Sabathia has good matchups, including the Mets who struggle against left-handers, but Sabathia isn’t pitching well. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings in his last four starts and has walked nine in 18.1 innings in that span.
Other Red Light Pitchers
- Zach Eflin (Phillies) @CHC, vs. MIL
- Lucas Giolito (White Sox) @MIN, @BOS
- David Hess (Orioles) @NYM, @TOR
- Derek Holland (Giants) vs. ARI, @WAS
- Brad Keller (Royals) @LAA, @OAK
- Matt Moore (Rangers) vs. OAK, vs. HOU
- Clayton Richard (Padres) vs. ATL, @MIA
- Jose Urena (Marlins) @STL, vs. SD
- Jason Vargas (Mets) vs. BAL, vs. NYY
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