Editor’s Note: Due to the poor weather over the weekend and Monday, the Week 4 pitching schedule was updated Monday, April 16. The projected two-start pitchers are no longer exactly as they were at the time this article was originally published.
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Week 4 Pitching Schedule
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ACES – MUST-START PITCHERS
- Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) vs. SF, vs. SD
- Jacob deGrom (Mets) vs. WAS, @ATL
- Dallas Keuchel (Astros) @SEA, @CWS
- Aaron Nola (Phillies) @ATL, vs. PIT
- James Paxton (Mariners) vs. HOU, @TEX
- Luis Severino (Yankees) vs. MIA, vs. TOR
GREEN LIGHT
Luis Castillo (Reds) @MIL, @STL
Castillo has a 7.31 ERA in three starts, but he has a 50 percent ground ball rate, hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact and has a 14.6 percent swinging strike rate despite his fastball dropping two miles per hour to 95.5 miles per hour. He has been hurt by allowing four home runs.
Yonny Chirinos (Rays) vs. TEX, vs. MIN
Chirinos isn’t going to deep into games yet, but he hasn’t allowed a run in 14.1 innings spanning three starts with two coming against the Red Sox. He has struck out 12 and walked two.
Marco Estrada (Blue Jays) vs. KC, @NYY
Estrada said he was dealing with a back issue in his last start. He said it’s not a big deal. Estrada had two good starts before leaving after four innings in his last start against the Orioles
Update: Estrada will only pitch once this week..
Mike Foltynewicz (Braves) vs. PHI, vs. NYM
Foltynewicz is off to a good start, but I still don’t trust him. We have seen these stretches from him before and there’s nothing different so far. He only has a 7.9 percent swinging strike rate. He’s on the lower end of the streaming two-start pitchers.
Kevin Gausman (Orioles) @DET, vs. CLE
After a terrible outing to open the season, Gausman has been decent in his last two starts, including one at Yankee Stadium. He has one favorable matchup against the Tigers.
Update: Gausman will only pitch once this week..
Sonny Gray (Yankees) vs. MIA, vs. TOR
Gray has pitched more than four innings once in his three starts. He has walked seven in 13 innings, but struck out 15. He will be better and get lots of run support.
Update: Gray will only pitch once this week..
Junior Guerra (Brewers) vs. CIN, vs. MIA
Guerra had success in 2016, but struggled last season with a 5.5 walk rate. He went 5.1 innings and allowed four hits, one run, walked two and struck out four against the Cardinals. He has two good matchups, although he’s on the lower end of the two-start pitchers in this tier.
Ian Kennedy (Royals) @TOR, @DET
Kennedy is off to a good start, but it won’t last. He’s a fly ball pitcher so the home runs will come and he has allowed a 34 percent line drive rate and 44.2 percent hard hit rate. For this week, he’s not an awful play since the Tigers aren’t good. Two of his three starts have come at home.
Update: Kennedy will only pitch once this week..
Jon Lester (Cubs) vs. STL, @COL
Lester hasn’t been sharp. He has walked seven in 14.1 innings and stuck out only 11. He’s not allowing hard contact. These are two tough matchups.
Update: Lester will only pitch once this week..
Brandon McCarthy (Braves) vs. PHI, vs. NYM
McCarthy left his last start with a left shoulder dislocation, but is expected to make his starts. McCarthy has a 3.31 ERA and hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact.
Update: McCarthy will only pitch once this week..
Lance McCullers (Astros) @SEA, @CWS
McCullers is coming off an awful outing in which he allowed six walks and eight runs in 3.2 innings at Minnesota. He has 23 strikeouts in 14 innings and will bounce back.
Nick Pivetta (Phillies) @ATL, vs. PIT
It’s only three starts, but Pivetta has shown improvement. He is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. In 16.2 innings, he has allowed 14 hits, two walks and struck out 19 and has yet to allow a home run. He has a hard hit rate of 20.9 percent and has improved his swinging strike rate 2.7 percent to 11.4 percent. He’s using a curveball more and he’s throwing more first-pitch strikes going from 59.3 percent to 66.2 percent.
David Price (Red Sox) @LAA, @OAK
Price is a dicey play. He left after one inning against the Yankees due to numbness in his throwing hand. Price said his hand was numb and he couldn’t feel it, but felt fine the next day and threw long toss. The Red Sox have already pushed him back one day. Price said he’s had it before and his hands and feet are always cold when the temperature is low outside.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers) @SD, vs. WAS
Ryu pitched poorly in Arizona and dominated the A’s at home. When healthy, he’s usually solid and he has a good matchup in San Diego.
Tyler Skaggs (Angels) vs. BOS, vs. SF
Skaggs has struck out 17 in 16 innings and allowed three earned runs. He has a 12.7 percent swinging strike rate.
Update: Skaggs will only pitch once this week..
Zack Wheeler (Mets) vs. WAS, @ATL
Jason Vargas needs more time as he rehabs, so Wheeler is in line to get two starts. Wheeler pitched seven innings and allowed one run, two hits, walked one and struck out seven against the Marlins. He averaged close to 95 miles per hour with his fastball and induced a lot of weak contact. He is more of a streamer than a long-term answer because one bad start could boot him out of the rotation.
Trevor Williams (Pirates) vs. COL, @PHI
People are going to use him because he is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, but he’s no lock at all. His velocity is down two miles per hour to 90.2 miles per hour on the fastball. He has a swinging strike rate of 4.8 percent, a hard hit rate of 38.5 percent, a 14.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.1 percent walk rate.
RED LIGHT
- Steven Brault (Pirates) vs. COL, @PHI
- Andrew Cashner (Orioles) @BOS, vs. CLE
- Danny Duffy (Royals) @TOR, @DET: I didn’t want Duffy on my teams. There’s concern with his health. He has a 4.8 BB/9, 51.1 percent fly ball rate, 40 percent hard hit rate and his fastball is down to 91.6 miles per hour.
- Carson Fulmer (White Sox) @OAK, vs. HOU
- German Marquez (Rockies) @PIT, vs. CHC: Marquez has appealed his five-game suspension, so the two-start week might not happen.
- Daniel Mengden (A’s) vs. CWS, vs. BOS
- Martin Perez (Rangers) @TB, vs. SEA
- Caleb Smith (Marlins) @NYY, @MIL
- Brent Suter (Brewers) vs. CIN, vs. MIA: Suter has two favorable matchups, but he doesn’t miss many bats with an 86 miles per hour fastball and that leaves him prone for a blowup game at any point. He has a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) @CHC, vs. CIN: He has a 5.5 percent swinging strike rate.
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