Month: November 2023

DFS

Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

November 11, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The theme for last week in the DFS market was the Houston Texans’ passing game, highlighted by the success of Tank Dell (6/116/2 – 1st) and Noah Brown (6/153/1 – 3rd). CeeDee Lamb (11/191) […]

Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

The theme for last week in the DFS market was the Houston Texans’ passing game, highlighted by the success of Tank Dell (6/116/2 – 1st) and Noah Brown (6/153/1 – 3rd). CeeDee Lamb (11/191) finished second, giving him explosive stats (23/349/2 on 30 targets) over the past two weeks. Three other wideouts (Amari Cooper – 24.90, Stefon Diggs – 22.60, and Diontae Johnson – 22.00) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:

  • Tyreek Hill (25.03)
  • A.J. Brown (22.61)
  • Stefon Diggs (21.82)
  • Keenan Allen (20.63)
  • CeeDee Lamb (19.96)

Also, before we get into the Week 9 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $8,800/FD – $9,000)

Since posting two impact games in Week 2 (8/111/2) and Week 3 (18/215), Allen averaged 14.76 fantasy points (30/318/2 on 44 targets). He remains on an elite pace (132/1,530/9 on 176 targets). The Chargers’ wideout had 66 catches for 768 yards and four touchdowns on 88 targets over the first three games, followed by 60 catches for 744 yards and two touchdowns on 95 targets over their last five matchups.

The Lions rank 14th vs. wide receivers (98/1,174/7 on 163 targets). Seattle (20/171/2), GB (15/210/1), and CAR (19/197/2) had the most success. Wideouts have a low catch rate (60.1) while gaining 12.0 yards per catch. CB Brian Branch (17/133/3 on 24 targets – per PFF) allows short yards per catch (7.8). 

Allen has the edge in experience in his WR/CB matchup, and he is the Chargers’ top target by a wide margin. His salary requires more than 34.00 fantasy points, so Allen needs a high-scoring game with multiple touchdowns to be viable in Week 10. I view him as overpriced, and Los Angeles hasn’t shown the passing for him pay off in this matchup.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,300)

The Bills held Chase to four catches for 41 yards on eight targets while playing through a back issue after landing awkwardly on an incomplete pass. Cincinnati lists him as questionable for this week’s game. He was on the field for 90% of their snaps last week, suggesting that Chase should play on Sunday. His best value this year came in Week 3 (12/141), Week 5 (15/192/3), and Week 8 (10/100/1). Over his other five starts (5/39, 5/31, 7/73, 6/80, and 4/41), he failed to score more than 15.00 fantasy points.

Houston has the fourth-best…

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DFS

Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report

November 10, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre […]

Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report

The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre Swift (9.4) fell short of expectations in fantasy points. Rachaad White took advantage of his favorable matchup to post his best outing (20/73/2 and 4/46) of his young career. Only four other backs (Rhamondre Stevenson – 22.90, Josh Jacobs – 21.80, Austin Ekeler – 21.00, and Keaton Mitchell – 20.80) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:

  • Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
  • Travis Etienne (20.49)
  • Raheem Mostert (19.07)
  • Derrick Henry (15.34)
  • Josh Jacobs (14.56)

Gus Edwards has been the top-scoring back over the last three weeks (21.40, 29.40, and 17.20).

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

Elite Options

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,500)

For any daily gamer starting their roster with McCaffrey, they tied up 18.4% of the salary at DraftKings and 17.5% at FanDuel. He averages 26.43 and 23.05 fantasy points at those sites, giving him a floor of 2.87X and 2.19X if McCaffrey hits his scoring average. His only impact game (48.70 fantasy points) came in Week 4 vs. the Cardinals at home. He scored at least 22.50 fantasy points in five other matchups, with his second-highest output (29.80) coming in Week 8.

McCaffrey gains his edge by scoring touchdowns (13 over eight games). He reached paydirt in 17 consecutive contests. Over his last two starts, the 49ers had him on the field for 98.2% of their snaps.

The Jaguars are about league average in running back defense (15th – 19.68 FPPG), with their down games in fantasy points allowed coming in Week 6 (29.40) and Week 7 (30.70). Over the last three games, running backs have been productive in catches (1IND – 11/84, NO – 12/91, and PIT – 9/61) while receiving 38 combined targets. Jacksonville allowed 3.6 yards per rush (16.9 attempts per game by running backs). No team has scored more than one rushing touchdown in a game (four total by running backs).

For McCaffrey to pay off in Week 10, the Jaguars’ defense would have to have their worst day of the season. Also, the 49ers’ top back would have to score almost all of the team’s fantasy points. On the positive side, he could have his best day catching the ball based on the direction of Jacksonville’s defense in this area over the past three weeks. McCaffrey has the highest floor in the game while forcing a DFS player to be creative when filling out the backend of their roster.

 

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Season Long – All Sports

Week 10 NFL Player Props

November 10, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 10 NFL Player Props FullTime Fantasy Members are getting their money’s worth if they’ve been following this column since the beginning of the season. Despite one week with a losing record, we had been profitable every single week we […]

Week 10 NFL Player Props

FullTime Fantasy Members are getting their money’s worth if they’ve been following this column since the beginning of the season. Despite one week with a losing record, we had been profitable every single week we released prop bets to target. That trend continued in Week 9 when we went 4-2 (+1.7 Units). We are now 28-20 (+10.2 Units) on the 2023 season. 

As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props as we prepare for Week 10’s slate of NFL action. Last week, I recommended the Dameon Pierce under. But because he was ruled out, that bet was void. We would have gone 5-1 if not for Patrick Mahomes’ last-minute kneeldowns that lost him a few critical rushing yards. This week, we’ll be sure to target seven healthy players and look to continue our hot streak!

Fantasy football managers have an edge when it comes to prop betting. That is because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 10 NFL player props to continue our profitable sports betting season. 

C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)

After last week’s epic five-touchdown performance, Stroud throwing two touchdown passes at plus odds seems like a slam dunk. Especially against Cincinnati’s 22nd-ranked defense against opposing quarterbacks. Although Stroud has much better splits in Houston versus the road, the Texans are going to have to air it out to keep up with Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Stroud won’t repeat his earth-shattering performance of Week 9. But I like his chances of finding the end zone twice on Sunday.

Houston’s rushing game has been abysmal with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Texans rely on the young rookie yet again. Even without Nico Collins, Stroud still has Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and even Robert Woods returned to practice this week.

And although Stroud has struggled on the road, he’s returning to the same neck of the woods where he played his college ball. This isn’t the same type of road game he’s played previously in the NFL. He’ll have tons of support from Ohio State alumni in Cincinnati. Given the odds, the expected game flow, and Stroud’s recent success, slam the over. 

Lamar Jackson…

WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…

 

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DFS

Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report

November 10, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report Last week, six tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, led by Dalton Schultz (10/130/1). Cade Otton (24.00) finished second, followed by Cole Kmet (23.50). The best tight end over the past three […]

Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report

Last week, six tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, led by Dalton Schultz (10/130/1). Cade Otton (24.00) finished second, followed by Cole Kmet (23.50). The best tight end over the past three weeks has been Taysom Hill (20.12 FPPG). Here are the top five players by scoring average after nine weeks in PPR formats:

  • Travis Kelce (15.63)
  • T.J. Hockenson (14.63)
  • Mark Andrews (13.86)
  • Sam LaPorta (13.80)
  • Cole Kmet (12.06)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 10 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Options

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300)

Even in a blowout game against the Seahawks, Andrews caught a season-high nine passes for 80 yards on 10 targets. He averaged 16.95 fantasy points in PPR formats over his last six starts, highlighted by two winning outputs (25.00 and 22.30). On the downside, Andrews averaged only 6.9 targets. His best game (5/80/2) came in Week 4 vs. the Browns.

Cleveland has the best tight end defense (19/155/2 on 28 targets). They held seven opponents to fewer than 6.00 fantasy points (CIN – 3/17, PIT – 1/2, TEN – 3/7, SF – 1/1, IND – 1/-6, SEA – 2/32, and ARI – 3/22). The Browns played well defensively in three games (3, 3, and 0 points allowed) while showing much more weakness on the road (88 points over three matchups). They have 26 sacks, requiring the tight end to help in pass protection on some plays.

The Ravens’ offense has been exceptional over their last three games (106 points), leading to 13 touchdowns and five field goals over 34 possessions. Baltimore runs the ball well, especially in scoring (15 touchdowns). Andrews will have some chances at the goal line, but he needs a wide open game to fill his salary bucket. Not ideal for his salary, but I can’t dismiss him. 

George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,1000/FD – $6,300)

A chaser game in Week 8 led to Kittle setting season-highs in catches (9), receiving yards (149), and targets (11), lifting him to sixth in tight end scoring (94.50 fantasy points). Over eight starts, he has been a losing investment in four matchups (3/19, 3/30, 1/9, and 1/1) while receiving 12 combined targets in those games. His best three days came at home (7/90, 3/67/3, and 9/149). The injury to Deebo Samuel bumped up his value over the two previous weeks.

The Jaguars rank 25th…

 

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DFS

Week 10 Quarterback Report

November 9, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 10 NFL Quarterback Report The winning tickets in Week 9 were cashed by the DFS teams using a C.J. Stroud (46.50 fantasy points) and a Houston Texans’ receiving stack. He gained 480 yards with five touchdowns and a two-point […]

Week 10 NFL Quarterback Report

The winning tickets in Week 9 were cashed by the DFS teams using a C.J. Stroud (46.50 fantasy points) and a Houston Texans’ receiving stack. He gained 480 yards with five touchdowns and a two-point conversion. Dak Prescott finished second in quarterback scoring (32.10), one notch higher than Week 8 despite the identical total in fantasy points. Joshua Dobbs (28.50) came off the bench to post the third-best output for the week. 10 quarterbacks scored at least 10 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after nine weeks:

  • Josh Allen (30.18)
  • Jalen Hurts (29.18)
  • C.J. Stroud (25.98)
  • Patrick Mahomes (22.88)
  • Justin Herbert (22.64)

Using our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 10 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,300)

The top end of the quarterback pool in Week 10 is weaker due to Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Tua Tagovailoa being on a bye week. In addition, Josh Allen plays on Monday night. Jackson has the highest salary on the main slate on Sunday while ranking seventh in quarterback scoring. He comes off two dull games (13.55 and 14.35) in fantasy points, coming after an explosive showing (393/4) vs. the Lions at home in Week 7. In his first matchup vs. the Browns, Jackson had four scores while gaining 213 combined yards. He attempted only 19 passes due to Baltimore playing from the lead and Cleveland starting rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. 

The Browns have the second-best quarterback defense (15.09 FPPG), right behind Baltimore’s defense (13.73 FPPG). The Ravens (31.80 fantasy points) and Colts (34.15 fantasy points) had the most success due to scoring four rushing touchdowns by their quarterbacks. Cleveland allows 6.3 yards per pass attempt with 26 sacks. Indy was the only team to pass for more than 300 yards due to a broken play by Michael Pittman (75-yard TD) and blown coverage vs. Josh Downs (59-yard TD) on another play.

This matchup should have a lot of running, pointing to a lower-scoring game (game total – 38.5). The Ravens scored 13 touchdowns and kicked five field goals over their last 34 possessions. That was highlighted by two explosive wins at home (38-6 and 37-3). Over this span, they scored eight rushing touchdowns. Jackson helps his floor by rushing the ball, but he is only an against-the-grain option in this matchup.

Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,500)

Over his last two games vs. the Chiefs and Jets…

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Season Long – All Sports

Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 10

November 8, 2023 Jody Smith

Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 10 FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is […]

Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 10

FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is the home of our FullTime Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 10.

Ranking You Can Trust

Our staff was ranked No. 1 last season, with not one but TWO analysts inside the top 10. With projections powered by NFBC Hall-of-Fame writer Shawn Childs and former FantasyPro’s Most Accurate Expert Jody Smith, FullTime Fantasy Members get instant access to reliable and trustworthy weekly rankings.

Additionally, Jody and Adam Krautwurst co-host the FullTime Fantasy Podcast, which is live-streamed weekly on YouTube. The guys are also active in the FullTime Fantasy Discord channel, helping answer all fantasy and sports betting inquiries.

Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 10

 

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bryce young
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10

November 8, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10 Predictably, Week 9’s Steelers/Titans game lacked fantasy firepower. And that appears to be applicable again in Week 10 as the offensively-challenged Panthers travel to Chicago to take on the last-place Bears. Our Thursday Night […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10

Predictably, Week 9’s Steelers/Titans game lacked fantasy firepower. And that appears to be applicable again in Week 10 as the offensively-challenged Panthers travel to Chicago to take on the last-place Bears. Our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10 breaks down the fantasy prospects in a game that seemingly lacks talking points.

The Panthers mustered only 275 yards of offense and 13 points in a home loss to the Colts. Now, the 1-win Panthers must travel on short rest. Carolina is 0-4 on the road and has yet to win a game against an NFC rival.

Meanwhile, the Bears have quarterback concerns. Tyson Bagent has been adequate, but Chicago’s offense lacks scoring upside without Justin Fields. Last week, the Bears out-gained New Orleans but dropped to 1-2 without Fields under center.

This game opened with the home team favored by just 1.5 points with a total of 41. However, early action on the Bears pushed the line to -3 and the total dipped to 39.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Carolina Panthers 30 27 24 31 26
Chicago Bears 14 24 4 15 19

Scoring has been an issue all season for the Panthers, and Carolina’s offensive line has been a big culprit. The Panthers rank 31st in passing yards per attempt and have allowed the fifth-most sacks. LT Ikem Ekwonu has struggled, leading to a lack of time and no ability for plays to develop downfield.

Carolina has only topped 250 passing yards once all season and their defense has allowed the second-most points and forced just seven turnovers. Subsequently, it is difficult to rely on the Panthers for points or fantasy production. Even when facing a Chicago defense that ranks 26th.

For the Bears, they will focus on keeping the ball on the ground. Chicago’s rushing attack ranks fourth and matches up well with a Carolina D that has surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards and allowed a league-worst 14 rushing touchdowns so far in 2023.

However, the biggest question for the Bears will be the health of quarterback Justin Fields. Tyson Bagent has filled in well for three games. But, Fields brings potential as a passer and runner that has been lacking.

Finally, weather should not be a factor. The forecast calls for 48-degree temperatures, with no precipitation or abnormal wind.

Carolina Offense 

Bryce Young is being overshadowed by…

How will Thursday’s Panthers vs. Bears game go?

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