Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 13

Starts and Sits to consider for Week 13

Trevor Lawrence

The 2022 fantasy football regular season is close to the end with the playoffs looming. The must-win games are here. Our Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 13 picks help you identify values to target and fades to avoid.

It is also crucial to know which waiver wire pick to make and to stay up-to-date on the injury report. Here are our Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 13 picks.

Editor’s note: This article is the FullTime Fantasy debut for Bradley Stalder

QUARTERBACKS 

Start ‘Em

Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Coming off a top-5 QB finish, Lawrence squares off against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field Week 13. The game total is projected over 50 points– indicating shootout potential. The Lions give up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. The difference in points between what the Lions have allowed (23.9) and the 2nd most points allowed team, the Miami Dolphins, is also the same difference between the Dolphins and the 15th most points allowed team, the Washington Commanders. 

Mike White (New York Jets)

Speaking of a plus matchup in a dome, White squares off against the Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis. The Vikings allow the most passing yards to quarterbacks on the season despite allowing the 7th most pass attempts. White finished as the QB6 overall in Week 12 with 3 TDs and 0 INTs against an ailing Chicago defense in the rain. Even in his small samples, White has shown off a fantasy ceiling.

Sit ‘Em

Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)

Watson last played in an NFL game on January 3rd, 2021. That’s 700 days in-between game action. While he may be facing off against his former team, the Houston Texans, this is not the easiest matchup in Houston. The Texans allow the 4th fewest fantasy points to QBs on the season, mostly because game scripts get out of hand and opposing running backs dominate. 

Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts)

While Ryan may have two top-5 finishes over his last five games, he’s also finished as QB20 or worse in the other three matchups. The matchup against Dallas in Arlington doesn’t get any easier. The Dallas defensive line has a projected 25% advantage over Indianapolis’ offensive line per PFF. The Cowboys also convert sacks at the 6th highest rate and force the 3rd most fumbles among team defenses, which is not a good formula for the pocket-passing QB.

RUNNING BACKS

Start ‘Em

Cordarrelle Patterson  (Atlanta Falcons)

Patterson has admittedly been hard to pin down. He’s finished as a top-18 RB twice since returning from injury but also finished outside RB30 twice. Both of those ceiling games came at home. In fact, Patterson has averaged 15 fantasy points per game at home this year. The Atlanta OL projects a 28% run-blocking advantage over Pittsburgh, per PFF. Patterson is a start this week safely within the confines of a dome.

Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Etienne may have left the matchup against the Ravens due to a foot injury, but was cleared to return. Weather played a factor in this game as it was delayed nearly a half hour. But fear no more, Etienne plays in Detroit against the Lions, who are one of four teams to give up over 100 rushing yards and at least one rushing TD per game to running backs. Etienne’s had a streak of 5 straight games with 100+ total yards and this Week 13 matchup should prove to be another week of fantasy goodness.

Sit ‘Em

Michael Carter / Zonovan Knight (New York Jets)

Michael Carter is still day-to-day with an ankle injury. Even if he plays, he’s a risk for re-injury. That would leave Bam Knight as the primary running back for the Jets. Knight played admirably in relief in Week 12 but this is a tough matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota is projected to have a 48% defensive line run-blocking advantage over the Jets. The Vikings also give up less than 80 rushing yards to opposing running backs on the season on only 3.78 yards per carry, so there may not be a lot of room to run regardless of who leads the Jets backfield in touches.

Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints)

Fantasy managers can find better streaming options than firing up Kamara this week. He’s not been an RB1 this season and has finished RB10 or better on a week only three times in 10 games. In fact, in three of Kamara’s last four games, he’s finished as RB23 or worse. Also, Kamara logged fewer than 10 carries in those three games. Tampa Bay gives up the fewest targets, fewest receiving yards, and 3rd fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season. Tampa’s defensive line is projected to have a 32% run block advantage over New Orleans per PFF, which sets up for a Kamara bust game.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start ‘Em

George Pickens (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Pickens pops off the game film as a game-breaker and gotta-get-it WR. After he was eased into the starting lineup for the first two weeks, Pickens has finished as a top-24 WR five times. He gets the Atlanta Falcons this week which gives up the fifth most fantasy points to WRs. With Diontae Johnson projected to line up the majority of snaps against shut-down corner A.J., Terrell, Pickens should find room for Kenny Pickett

Joshua Palmer (LA Chargers)

Keenan Allen may have returned, but Josh Palmer is still putting up notable usage in the absence of Mike Williams. Palmer’s last two contests’ average with Allen in the lineup: 6.5 receptions, 7.5 targets, 81 receiving yards, and a TD. Williams is a projected game-time decision, but if he’s out Josh Palmer projects to play outside more with DeAndre Carter manning the slot. The game total is projected over 50, and Vegas is not a tough matchup. 

Randall Cobb (Green Bay Packers)

In his last three healthy games, Cobb has either 73+ receiving yards or a TD. With Rodgers dealing with multiple injuries but expected to go Week 13 against the Bears, getting the ball out quickly and close to the line of scrimmage to minimize hits could be a formula for success. If Rodgers chooses to get the ball to Cobb, Cobb is projected to play the majority of snaps against Jaylon Jones, who has the 25th-worst PFF coverage grade among CBs. Cobb should be a deep-league consideration. Remember, Rodgers “owns” the Bears.

Per FullTime’s Advanced Snap Report, Randall Cobb’s target share makes him a solid option vs. a leaky Chicago secondary

 

Sit ‘Em

Michael Gallup (Dallas Cowboys)

Gallup commanded a season-high 8 targets against the Giants on Thanksgiving, translating into 5-63 and 135 air yards. But Week 13 is a different story. Gallup is projected to line up against Stephon Gilmore and Isaiah Rodgers on the outside. Both are cornerbacks who limit the ceiling of opposing wideouts. Gilmore has allowed more than 65 receiving yards once. Rodgers has allowed more than 16 yards once. Overall, the Colts allow the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers on the season. Even if Dallas blows up against the Colts, it won’t be because of Gallup.

Keelan Cole (Las Vegas Raiders)

Don’t get cute this week. Keelan Cole has been operating as the WR3 and main slot receiver for the Raiders since the Hunter Renfrow injury but that hasn’t translated into fantasy points. Over the last 3 games, Cole has earned only 6 targets, 3 receptions, and 33 total yards despite running 92% of passing routes. He’s projected to line up against Bryce Callahan, who has allowed 29+ receiving yards only twice on the year, in the slot. This is a condensed target distribution for the Raiders, and Cole isn’t a pivot.

Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings)

Insert the *We’re Waiting for It* GIF for Thielen, and that’s how fantasy managers felt going into his matchup with New England. Before finishing as the WR9 in Week 12, Thielen had not finished as WR15 or better all season. Thielen is projected to line up most of his snaps against Sauce Gardner. Gardner, the 4th overall pick in 2022, hasn’t allowed more than 51 receiving yards and hasn’t allowed a TD since week 2. Teams simply don’t throw Gardner’s way much, as he’s been targeted 4 or fewer times each of the last four games.

TIGHT ENDS

Start ‘Em

Robert Tonyan (Green Bay Packers)

Tonyan’s had an up-and-down year recovering from his ACL tear suffered in 2021. He’s finished as TE20 or worse in each of the last 6 games. But he’s also had two top-10 performances this year. However, this is a sneaky matchup. Tonyan is projected to line up the majority of his routes against undrafted rookie LB Jack Sanborn. Sanborn may be an IDP darling in the fantasy community since the Roquan Smith trade, but he allows the most yards per route covered, 3rd highest fantasy points per route run, and 4th highest catch % to opposing receivers. 

Josh Oliver (Baltimore Ravens)

Likely picked up an ankle injury in Week 11 causing him to miss the Week 12 upset against the Jaguars. Instead, former 3rd round pick of the Jaguars Josh Oliver stepped up and commanded the 2nd most targets among Ravens receivers only behind Mark Andrews– finishing as the TE3. With Rashod Bateman missing the rest of the season, the other Ravens wide receivers are hard to trust. And the Broncos aren’t a particular lock-down defense against TEs. 

Sit ‘Em

Cade Otton/Cameron Brate (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

The Buccaneers’ TE position has combined for 10 targets over the last two weeks, with Brate out-targeting Otton 6-3 and out-snapping Otton 45-36 on Pass Snaps. Not that the matchup makes anything better. It doesn’t matter who the TE is. Demario Davis has locked down TEs this year, allowing the fewest targets per route, fewest fantasy points per route, lowest yards per route coverage, and 4th lowest catch percentage. Needless to say, the Saints allow the fewest TE fantasy points on the season. Fire up Mike Evans and Chris Godwin with confidence this week.

Hunter Henry (New England Patriots)

There is a strong temptation in fantasy football circles to chase TDs. That is usually folly. Henry went 3-63-1, with another TD overruled on replay. But Henry has not been the model of consistency this year. 5 of his 11 games have resulted in 2 or fewer targets. Buffalo gives up the 5th fewest fantasy points to TEs on the year, and PFF projects a 36% matchup disadvantage for Hunter Henry against Tremaine Edmunds, who is on track to play Thursday. 

 


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About Jody Smith 273 Articles
With over a decade of winning experience, Jody is a well-known fixture in the fantasy football community. He was named Fantasy Pros’ **Most Accurate Ranker** previously and was the site’s Top NFL over/under totals picker with a record 65% accuracy in 2020, while also ranking 5th in the country with a 55% against-the-spread hit rate. Jody has written for many sites over the years including Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, CBS Sportsline, FantasyData, and is a regular contributor to the Fantasy Index magazine expert’s poll, draft, and auction.Jody’s experience ranking and projecting player performance will help prepare the Fulltime Fam for their big draft days as well as answers they can trust on Sunday for those ever crucial Who Do I Start questions.