2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Outlook.
— PROJECTIONS —
— Quarterback —
Kenny Pickett
Pickett developed into a stud quarterback in their senior year in college (4,319 yards with 42 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions) after a mediocre career over his first four seasons (7,984 passing yards with 39 touchdowns and 25 interceptions over 39 games). His completion rate (67.2) and yards per pass attempt (8.7) were well above his previous resume (60.4 and 6.8). Over five seasons, he ran the ball 417 times for 801 yards and 20 touchdowns despite gaining only 1.9 yards per carry.
The Pittsburgh Panthers used Pickett almost exclusively out of the shotgun, which fits well with the Steelers. When given a long passing window, he had his eyes up, looking to beat defenses over the top. Pickett showed the ability to make quick pre-snap reads. His arm strength grades well, with enough mobility to make a breaking-free rusher miss with his legs. When asked to roll out to his right, Pickett maintained his accuracy on the move. He won’t be a difference-maker in the run game, but Pickett can pick up some first downs with his legs and offer scoring value on sneaks at the goal line.
At the next level, his most significant challenges will come from a shorter passing window and the overall quality of his supporting cast in the passing game. In a way, he has a Matt Ryan feel with less size but more quickness. Pickett is a pocket passer with a chance to beat expectations by some scouts.
In his rookie season, he made 13 starts while failing to deliver impact stats in any matchup. Pickett passed for more than 300 yards in Week 5 (327/0) while attempting over 40 passes in three contests. Over his final eight games, he averaged only 180 passing yards with five touchdowns and one interception. His value as a runner (55/237/3) was better than expected.
Fantasy Outlook: A couple of concussions knocked Pickett out of a couple of starts while costing him one game. His chemistry with Diontae Johnson (52.9% catch rate) and finding him in the end zone (no touchdowns) was a problem. Pittsburgh has a pass-catching back plus six other viable receiving options, giving Pickett a chance to be much better in 2023. His first step in his growth is finishing drives with passing touchdowns in the red zone. The tools to succeed are in place, but I still view him as a gamble QB2 (ranked 21st) in 12-team fantasy formats. For now, a player and offense to watch in the preseason to see if the sum of the parts equals a worthy quarterback investment.
Mitchell Trubisky
Most football observers think of Trubisky as a first-round bust (2nd overall pick in 2017). After a quiet rookie season (4-8 with seven touches and seven interceptions), he went 27-16 over his next 43 starts, with a pro bowl appearance in 2018. His completion rate (65.3) was respectable over this stretch, but Trubisky settles for too many short passes (6.8 yards per pass attempt).
Last year, he went 2-3 with Pittsburgh over seven appearances with 1,252 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and five interceptions. Trubisky lost his momentum in the run game (19/38/2).
Pittsburgh signed Trubisky to a two-year deal with a base pay of $14 million in 2022 with an upside of $27 million if he hits on all his incentives. They saw enough of his game to extend him for another two seasons in May.
Fantasy Outlook: Trubisky provides veteran experience at quarterback for the Steelers, but he should open the season behind Kenny Pickett on the depth chart. With no spark in any start last year, Trubisky has much to prove to the fantasy market before earning a bench role.
Other Options: Mason Rudolph, Tanner Morgan
— Running Backs —
The Steelers’ running backs have seen an increase in rushing attempts in back-to-back seasons, leading to three-year highs in attempts (426), rushing yards (1,798), and yards per carry (4.2). Their backs continue to gain short yards per catch (6.2) while receiving 21.4% of the team’s completions. Pittsburgh’s running back picked up seven passing touchdowns over the past three seasons, with minimal change in their overall scoring (12, 12, and 14 touchdowns).
Najee Harris
In his first season in the NFL, Harris ranked third in fantasy scoring (300.70) in PPR formats. Pittsburgh had him on the field for 81.4% of their plays, leading to a massive workload (381 touches). In essence, Harris had a Le’Veon Bell opportunity in this offense with less explosiveness. Between Week 2 and Week 17, Harris has a floor of 16.80 fantasy points in 13 of his 15 starts. He was a better player at home (1,042 combined yards with five touchdowns and 44 catches) than on the road (653 combined yards with five touchdowns and 32 catches). His only three games with over 100 yards rushing (23/122/1, 26/105, and 28/188/1) came in Pittsburgh.
Harris came into last season with some concerns about a foot injury. He ended up playing all 17 games, leading to 1,263 combined yards, 10 touchdowns, and 41 catches. His yards per rush have been an issue in back-to-back years (3.9 and 3.8), along with his yards per catch (6.3 and 5.6). Last season, Harris gained more than 20 yards on only one of his 313 touches. He finished 14th in running back scoring (225.50) in PPR formats while reaching 20.00 fantasy points in only two outings (27.60 and 20.30). Harris scored seven of his 10 touchdowns over his final eight games. He had a gamer mentality based on playing through multiple injuries in 2022 (foot, knee, oblique, and hip).
The Steelers have tried to improve their offensive line through the draft and free agency over the past two seasons. The best help for Harris should be the addition of LT Broderick Jones this year.
Fantasy Outlook: The most significant negative for Harris may be the potential value of backup running back Jaylen Warren. He’ll clearly get in the way in the passing game (28/214 on 33 targets), and Warren showed more explosiveness in yards per rush (4.9) and yards per catch (7.6). Harris comes off the board as the 14th running back in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. With 300 touches, he should gain a minimum of 1,300 yards with about a dozen scores and 50 catches. Harris has a high floor and a sneaky ceiling.
Jaylen Warren
Pittsburgh signed Warren as an undrafted free agent in 2022 after showing growth in his play in his final year at Oklahoma State (256/1,216/11 with 25 catches for 225 yards).
The Steelers gave him a minimal role over his first four games (77 combined yards and seven catches on 17 touches) before showing a spark in a chaser game vs. the Bills (63 yards and four catches). Warren gained more than 75 combined yards in Week 8 and Week 10 with a combined six catches. His season ended with a bump in touches (43) over the final four matchups (35/173/1 and eight catches for 47 yards).
Overall, Pittsburgh had Warren on the field for 29.4% of their plays compared to 65.7 by Najee Harris.
Fantasy Outlook: With better offensive play by the Steelers, Warren should see his touches increase by 20 to 30%. In early ADP…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE STEELERS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
— BREAKOUT — 