DraftKings

Jalen Hurts
DFS

Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report

September 28, 2023 Jody Smith

Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback […]

Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback in the DFS market was Andy Dalton (27.15). Fifteen QBs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, three less than in Week 2 (only 10 in Week 1). Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after three games:

  • Kirk Cousins (86.45)
  • Justin Herbert (81.75)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (81.00)
  • Patrick Mahomes (76.45)
  • Jordan Love (75.15)

Joe Burrow (34.65 fantasy points – 30th) remains the weak link of the top-tier quarterbacks drafted in 2023. C.J. Stroud (63.80) sits 12th, one notch above Mac Jones (60.70). Four quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points each week – Cousins, Herbert, Mahomes, and Love. Daniel Jones has two bust weeks (7.50 and 6.35) vs. the Cowboys and 49ers while booming in Week 2 (34.95) vs. the Cardinals.

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

Three weeks into the 2023 DFS season, Allen is still looking for his first impact game. He’s been the best fantasy quarterback over the past three years, scoring at least 30.00 fantasy points seven times in 2022 (twice vs. the Dolphins – 31.70 and 39.90). The Bills’ offense has a much better structure in the run game over the last two weeks due to the play of James Cook (32/221 with six catches for 50 yards). Surprisingly, Allen is gaining only 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 7.6 in 2022, which was also an issue in 2021 (6.8). 

Miami’s defense had massive issues with the Chargers’ run game in Week 1 (40/233/3). Over the next two weeks, they cleaned up this problem (25/88 and 20/69). But New England and Denver haven’t run the ball well in 2023. In addition, Allen’s right arm forces the Dolphins to defend the whole field. The Broncos did have three completions of 25 yards or more in Week 3. Miami has eight sacks with increased pressure on the quarterback this season.

The over/under for this game is 53.5. Also, the echo in my head from a friend of mine is that this game total usually falls on the underside…or was it the over? Either way, Allen has the “due feeling,” and his recent resume vs. the Dolphins suggests four times his salary (or more than 32.00 fantasy points) is well within reach. In addition, the Miami should push the issue on the scoreboard.

Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,600)

After a slow passing start in Week 1 (229/1) against Miami, Herbert took advantage of his last two favorable matchups…

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Justin Herbert
DFS

Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report

September 21, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report In four-point passing touchdown formats, Daniel Jones (34.95 fantasy points) was the best quarterback in the land in Week 2. Kirk Cousins (33.20) and Russell Wilson (31.00) were the only other two options to score […]

Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report

In four-point passing touchdown formats, Daniel Jones (34.95 fantasy points) was the best quarterback in the land in Week 2. Kirk Cousins (33.20) and Russell Wilson (31.00) were the only other two options to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Fifteen quarterbacks scored between 21.50 to 28.50 fantasy points, compared to nine in Week 1.

Here are the top five quarterbacks two weeks into the season:

  • Kirk Cousins (56.10)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (49.55)
  • Justin Herbert (48.40)
  • Patrick Mahomes (48.05)
  • Russell Wilson (47.95)

Joe Burrow (22.70 fantasy points – 32nd) is the biggest underachiever so far in 2023.

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

The lack of identity at wide receiver does hurt his explosiveness, at least out of the gate. Kadarius Toney leads the team in targets (10), but he only has 49 yards receiving. Justin Watson (5/107 on nine targets) has been a surprise, and he leads the team in receiving yards. Travis Kelce (4/26/1) didn’t have the same bounce in his step in Week 2 while appearing to be favoring his knee at the end of last week’s game. On the positive side, Mahomes continues to produce fantasy points.

The Bears’ defense allowed eight touchdowns and three field goals over the first two matchups while allowing 65 points. They only have one sack, with quarterbacks (Jordan Love – 257/3 and Baker Mayfield – 334/1) gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Chicago has played better than expected vs. the run (66/212/2 – 3.2 yards per carry). Wide receivers (21/348/3 on 35 targets) have a low catch rate (60.0%) but average 16.6 yards per catch.

Two weeks into the season, Kansas City only has four touchdowns, averaging 18.5 points per game. Mahomes looks poised to post a high-level game, and his wide receiving corps remains cheap in the DFS market. Unfortunately, he must score 33.00 fantasy points at DraftKings (28.00 at FanDuel) to be in the winning equation. His over/under in passing yards (295.5) at Underdog appears too low based on my projections (312/3), especially if Mahomes hits on one long touchdown. The key to his ceiling is Justin Fields leading the Bears to at least 20 points.

 

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Jalen Hurts
DFS

Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report

September 13, 2023 Shawn Childs

After a wild Week 1, Shawn Childs provides his Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report so you can dominate on DraftKings and FanDuel! Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report Top Tier Options Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,800) On the […]

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Geno Smith
DFS

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 6, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Seahawks – 6 Over/Under: 46.0 The Rams come into 2023 with a rebuilding feel, and their star wide receiver (Cooper Kupp) is battling a hamstring injury heading into […]

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Seahawks – 6

Over/Under: 46.0

The Rams come into 2023 with a rebuilding feel, and their star wide receiver (Cooper Kupp) is battling a hamstring injury heading into Week 1. Matthew Stafford is a proven quarterback, but his secondary receiving options are below the league average. Cam Akers played well late last season, giving the fantasy market hope that he will build on his success this year. I see risk in the secondary for Los Angeles, pointing to Seattle throwing the ball well if DE Aaron Donald can’t shorten the passing window.

The Seahawks bring a high foundation of the receiving corps, highlighted by DK Metcalf and the exciting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Tyler Lockett has an excellent resume despite being on the wrong side of 30. Seattle lines two exciting young running backs – Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The biggest question for this team is their defense, which is a win for overall scoring by their offense.


Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford

  • Last season, over nine starts, Stafford delivered one playable game (272/3) in the fantasy markets. His completion rate (68.0) was a career-best, but he had a decline in pass attempts per game (33.7 – 35.4) and an increase in his sack percentage (8.7 – 4.8 in 2021). 
  • In addition, his yards per pass attempt (6.9) declined by 1.2 yards from 2021 (8.1). His year ended after Week 11 with a neck injury.
  • With Cooper Kupp trending toward a sit in Week 1, Stafford’s projection will be lowered in the next update.
  • The Seahawks ranked 16th in quarterback defense, with one team scoring over 30.00 fantasy points.
  • Seattle should score in this game, so a chaser game gives Stafford a chance only if Kupp is a full go.

Cam Akers

  • Last season, Akers was a bust in the fantasy market over the first nine games (84/274/1 with two catches for 18 yards) while also missing two games with personal issues (not getting the ball enough). 
  • From Week 12 to Week 16, he gained 240 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches. 
  • The Rams gave Akers a workhorse opportunity over his final three matchups (23/118/3, 19/123, and 21/04 with six combined catches for 63 yards), with the latter coming against Seattle.
  • The Seahawks finished 28th in running defense (27.72 FPPG), with five teams scoring more than 35.00 fantasy points.
  • There has been talk out of Rams’ camp that Kyren Williams would see more time this season on passing downs. Akers has the tools to rush for 100 yards with a score, putting in range…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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Justin Fields
DFS

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 5, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bears – 2.5 Over/Under: 43.5 The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him […]

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bears – 2.5

Over/Under: 43.5

The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him with their new Love. The summer reports have been positive for Jordan Love, especially his connection with Christian Watson. The running back position remains in the hands of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Green Bay added WR Jaylen Reed and TE Luke Musgrove to improve the depth of their passing options.

The Bears have a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but they have the tools to be a much better offense in 2023. DJ Moore is an upgrade at wideout, and a healthy Darnell Mooney paired with Cole Kmet gives Justin Fields the weapons to push much higher in his pass production. He remains a beast running the ball. Chicago will rotate in three backs out of the gate.


Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love

  • Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel when waiting for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concerns with his accuracy. 
  • In his first chance to see game action with Green Bay in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts. 
  • He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Last season, Love saw limited snaps over four games (14-for-21 with 195 yards and one touchdown). 
  • The Bears ranked 26th in quarterback defense (21.36 FPPG). Despite their lower rankings, only one quarterback posted an impact game (39.85 fantasy points). On the positive side, seven quarterbacks scored between 24.90 and 28.90 fantasy points.
  • Love is priced in a favorable range, and he does have one explosive wideout. Let the “Magic” happen.

Aaron Jones

  • Last year, Jones gained more than 1,400 combined yards for the third time while setting a career-high in catches (59). 
  • He was a much better player at home (932 combined yards with four touchdowns and 28 catches) than on the road (584 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches). 
  • Jones gained more than 100 yards in six matchups. Green Bay had him on the field for the same percentage of plays (57.6) while playing two games. 
  • In Week 2, he posted an impact game (170 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches) vs. the Bears.
  • Chicago had the second-worst defense against running backs.
  • The Packers will rotate in two backs, and Love may not get Jones as many targets as in the past with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
  • He needs a 25.00 fantasy point game to be in the mix. I’ll take the under…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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Jahan Dotson
DFS

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 4, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Commanders – 7 Over/Under: 39.0 The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is […]

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Commanders – 7

Over/Under: 39.0

The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is on the PUP list with no clear timetable to return to the starting lineup. Incoming rookie Clayton Tune looks poised to start in Week 1 after getting drafted in the fifth round this year. James Conner is the lead back with minimal competition for snaps. Zack Ertz is trending toward a sit in Week 1. Arizona will feature Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in the passing game. They hope Michael Wilson can handle their WR3 role at some point in the season.

Washington has a top defense with a developing quarterback (Sam Howell) who will be making his second career start. The change at offensive coordinator could lead to a bump in production at running back in the passing game, rewarding Antonio Gibson. Brian Robinson is their power running with the inside track to score in close. A turf toe issue may keep Terry McLaurin on the sideline in Week 1. For now, Jahan Dotson assumes the lead wide receiver role, and Curtis Samuel gets a bump in chances.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Arizona Cardinals

Clayton Tune

 

  • Clayton Tune was Arizona’s shot at a future quarterback. His mechanics need work to improve his accuracy under duress and on the move. He can read defenses, but his arm doesn’t always have the fire to win in tight coverage. 
  • Over five seasons in college, Tune passed for 11,996 yards with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. He was also active in the run game (412/1,256/15). In his senior year, Tune gained 4,618 combined yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His production rushing the ball peaked in 2022 (128/544/2).
  • I don’t know if he will start with the Cardinals signing Joshua Dobbs and releasing Colt McCoy.
  • Washington had a league-average defense vs. quarterbacks in 2022 (18.84 FPPG).
  • Tune has to walk before being considered to start any format. I have a feeling he will make progress as the season moves on if Arizona gives him starting snaps.

 

James Conner

 

  • Conner finished 19th in running back scoring (201.20) in PPR formats while playing in 13 games last season. A rib issue knocked him out for three weeks early in the year, and in Week 18, he had a shin injury. 
  • From Week 10 to Week 17, Conner delivered seven productive games (23.60, 13.40, 22.00, 23.40, 18.10, 25.00, and 14.00 fantasy points). He rushed for more than 100 yards in one matchup (25/120 with three catches for 20 yards and one score).
  • The Cardinals will give him 15+ touches with some value in catches. The lack of quarterback play is a significant concern for…

 

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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DFS

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 2, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5 Over/Under: 41.0 The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting […]

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5

Over/Under: 41.0

The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting the year third on the depth chart. San Francisco has the best all-around running back (Christian McCaffrey) in the game, with three productive pieces (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle) at receiver. Their star DE Nick Bosa wants a new deal, and he has yet to report to the team. The 49ers need his pass rush (34 sacks over his last 33 games) to maintain their high ranking on defense.

The Steelers struggled to score points (308), with Kenny Pickett assuming the quarterback duties after Ben Roethlisberger retired. The Steelers’ offense has depth at running back (Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren) and the talent to move the ball via the pass with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. The key to all players is increased production by Pickett.


Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy

  • Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts at Iowa. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.
  • Over his eight full starts, Purdy attempted more than 30 passes in only two games (MIA – 37 and @LV – 35). He had a floor of two touchdowns in his first in seven matchups while delivering one impact game (348/4). 
  • His completion rate (67.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) rank highly in the NFL. 
  • Purdy saw his season end in the Super Bowl due to an injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February.
  • Pittsburgh was about league-average defending quarterbacks (19.59 FPPG) last season, but two offenses posted impact games (32.40 and 32.25). They played without their top pass rusher (T.J. Watt) for seven games.
  • Despite his success last year, Purdy was a modified game manager. He has to prove his elbow is healthy before riding him in the daily space. The 49ers have plenty of receiving weapons, so I can’t totally write him off in Week 1.

Christian McCaffrey

  • Over his final nine games with the 49ers, McCaffrey gained 1,066 yards with 10 touchdowns and 39 catches, an average of 18.94 FPPG in PPR formats.
  • His salary requires 35.00 fantasy points at DraftKings for him to be worth his investment. He posted one impact game (40.60), with three high-floor showings (28.60, 29.30, and 31.30).
  • Pittsburgh gave up six receiving scores to running back in 2022, but they limited the damage in catches (64) and receiving yards (523). Their defense held backs to 4.2 yards per carry with seven scores on the ground.
  • McCaffrey isn’t the workhorse he once was with the Panthers, but he will get plenty of chances to make plays. His pass-catching ability set a nice floor while needing multiple scores to pay off his top-tier salary

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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