DraftKings

Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 26, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by […]

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by Jalen Hurts (28.05). The best option was Gardner Minshew (34.15), thanks to two surprising touchdowns and a pair of long touchdowns. My go-to low-value guy was Tyrod Taylor (24.45), who ranked seventh for the week. The theme for the week was QB/TE hookups while offering different levels of investment at DraftKings:

  • Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce – 76.76 ($16,300 = 4.71 X)
  • Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews – 60.75 ($13,300 = 4.67 X)
  • Tyrod Taylor/Darren Waller – 47.25 ($10,100 = 4.77 X)

The Giants combo could have been the best pairing if the elite options at running back and wide receiver delivered elite games.

Here’s a look at the top five scoring quarterbacks after seven weeks:

  • Josh Allen (183.85)
  • Jalen Hurts (180.45)
  • Patrick Mahomes (176.25)
  • Lamar Jackson (170.80)
  • Justin Herbert (145.60 – one fewer game)

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)

A Trip to Bountiful (Denver) bodes well for Mahomes to have another elite game. He rates as the top quarterback in the land again in Week 8 after posting his best game (453/4) of the year, thanks to a season-high in catches of 20 yards or more (6), two of which reach the forty-yard mark (46 and 53). Mahomes has a floor of 39 pass attempts in five of his seven starts. Last year, he had two high-floor games (349/3 and 336/3) vs. the Broncos, but Mahomes failed to produce a winning outcome against them in Week 6 (337/1).

Denver has the third-worst defense against quarterbacks (23.64 FPPG), with Miami (375/5) and Chicago (360/4) posting impact games. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with four teams passing for at least 299 yards. The Broncos have tightened up their wide receiver defense over the last three matchups (NYJ – 6/87, KC – 9/103/1, and GB – 10/98/2), but tight ends produced winning stats in four games (7/89/1, 10/111/2, 7/81, and 11/138) this season.

The Chiefs’ defense has yet to allow more than three touchdowns or 21 points in a game this year, so the Broncos’ lack of offense may lead to more running back action in this matchup. I’m a fan of offenses trending up, especially when having a favorable matchup the following week. Mahomes should have a floor of 300 passing yards and three scores, but he needs a few more yards and a fourth score to fill his salary bucket. Rinse and repeat seems to be the story here. Keep an open mind about Jerick McKinnon (on the field for a season-high 37% of the Chiefs’ snaps in Week 7) possibly finding his way onto the winning ticket in this matchup.

 

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DFS

Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report

October 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past […]

Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report

Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past two weeks (Kyle Pitts – 7/87 and 4/43/1 ~ Jonnu Smith – 6/67 and 4/36/1), pushing them to the top 12 in tight end scoring for the season. Ten tight ends scored between 10.00 and 15.00 fantasy points. 

Here’s a look at the top five tight ends after six weeks:

  • Travis Kelce (88.60)
  • Sam LaPorta (79.50)
  • T.J. Hockenson (77.40)
  • Mark Andrews (71.40)
  • Cole Kmet (67.10)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 7 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Options

 

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,500)

Despite missing one game and playing through some injuries, Kelce regains the top-scoring seat at tight end heading into Week 7. He has a floor of nine targets on four starts while gaining momentum over his last two matchups (10/67/1 and 9/124). The Chiefs only had him on the field for 59% and 69% of their plays over this span (66.4% for the season – 79.8% in 2022). Last year, Kelce had one impact game (6/115/3) against the Chargers on the road (5/51 at home), with the same theme in 2021 (10/191/2 @ LAC – 7/104 in KC). 

Los Angeles ranks 10th in tight end defense (19/187/1 on 29 targets) while facing four opponents with low-ranking options (MIA – 3/44, TEN – 4/35, LV – 1/11, and DAL – 1/15). The Chargers did have issues covering T.J. Hockenson (8/78) and the Vikings’ tight ends (10/82/1 on 13 targets) in Week 3. 

Kelce hasn’t delivered a game that was three times his current salary at DraftKings in 2023 (24.20, 33.50, and 35.50 last season). The latter two outcomes are needed to fill his salary bucket in Week 7. His path isn’t far off from an 8/100/2 game, so keep an open mind about playing him in the DFS market. 

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,900)

 

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Justin Herbert
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa […]

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.

Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.

The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.

Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups. 

Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

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tj hockenson
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report

October 12, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report The tight end position was an area of strength for fantasy teams in Week 5. Six players scored more than 19.00 fantasy points (George Kittle – 3/67/3, Dallas Goedert – 8/117/1, Travis Kelce – […]

Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report

The tight end position was an area of strength for fantasy teams in Week 5. Six players scored more than 19.00 fantasy points (George Kittle – 3/67/3, Dallas Goedert – 8/117/1, Travis Kelce – 10/67/1, Logan Thomas – 9/77/1, Sam LaPorta – 3/47/2, and Dalton Schultz – 7/65/1). All outcomes propelled each player to the top 13 in tight end scoring. Here’s a look at the five scoring tight ends after five games in PPR formats:

  • Sam LaPorta (71.90)
  • Travis Kelce (67.20)
  • T.J. Hockenson (66.40)
  • Cole Kmet (64.20)
  • Mark Andrews (60.50)

 

Also, here are the top plays this week via the Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 6 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Options

T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $6,600/FD – $6,700)

Over the past two weeks, Hockenson only had seven catches for 75 yards with 11 targets. His last score came in his best game (7/66/2) in Week 2. He continues to gain short yards per catch (8.6) over his 15 games with the Vikings. Last year, Hockenson only had one catch for 16 yards on one target vs. the Bears. 

Chicago ranks 24th in tight end fantasy defense (34/282/2 on 40 targets), with Kansas City (8/78/1) and Washington (12/105/1) having the best success. Surprisingly, the Bears had the best defense against tight ends (56/596/8 on 82 targets) in 2022.

In his career, Hockenson has 29 catches for 298 yards and two touchdowns on 43 targets vs. the Bears. The loss of Justin Jefferson invites more chances and increased defensive attention. He doesn’t project well in Week 6 for his salary. A high-scoring game invites more chances, keeping in the mix at the top end of the tight end pool.

Sam LaPorta, DET (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800)

LaPorta has been the best tight end in the league over the first five weeks, highlighted by his success in two games (8/84/1 and 3/47/3). He’s caught 80.6% of…

 

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Justin Fields
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 12, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in […]

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in quarterback scoring (119.25 fantasy points). Josh Allen (32.35), Jalen Hurts (31.35), and Sam Howell (30.30) filled out the quarterback superfecta last week. In addition, Jared Goff (29.90), Desmond Ridder (29.45), and Brock Purdy (28.60) played at a high level. 

Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after five games based on scoring average:

  • Josh Allen (138.35)
  • Justin Herbert (107.80 – four games)
  • Jalen Hurts (126.70)
  • Kirk Cousins (122.10)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (120.80).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Allen had a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games, but his running output (20/120/3) is well behind his previous two years (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). His two bright spots after five games are his completion rate (73.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.0), both career-best. Over the last two weeks, he gained 710 combined yards with eight touchdowns. 

The Giants are league-average defending quarterbacks (19.10 FPPG), with two teams (SF – 310/2 and MIA – 308/2) passing for more than 300 yards. New York allowed at least three touchdowns in all five games. Offenses scored 18 touchdowns and nine field goals on 52 possessions (30.6 points per game). Their defense will give up rushing touchdowns (9). Field position due to turnovers (8) has favored their opponents. 

Buffalo is a 15-point favorite, suggesting more run by the Bills, especially in the second half. Allen will get his touchdowns but needs 33.00 fantasy points to…

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Travis Kelce
DFS

Week 5 DFS: Tight End Report

October 6, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 5 DFS: Tight End Report Last week, Cole Kmet (7/85/2) and Mark Andrews (5/80/2) delivered impact games at tight end, moving them to third (49.00) and fifth (48.00) in tight end fantasy scoring in PPR formats. 13 players tight […]

Week 5 DFS: Tight End Report

Last week, Cole Kmet (7/85/2) and Mark Andrews (5/80/2) delivered impact games at tight end, moving them to third (49.00) and fifth (48.00) in tight end fantasy scoring in PPR formats. Thirteen players tight ends scored between 10.00 and 15.50 fantasy points. On the year, there have been only two other outcomes (Week 2 ~ T.J. Hockenson – 7/66/2 and Week 3 ~ Sam LaPorta – 8/84/1) higher than 20.00 fantasy points.

Here are the seven tight ends averaging more than 10.00 fantasy points in 2023:

  • T.J. Hockenson (56.30)
  • Sam LaPorta (52.20)
  • Cole Kmet (49.00)
  • Evan Engram (48.20)
  • Mark Andrews (48.00 – one missed game)
  • Hunter Henry (46.60)
  • Travis Kelce (44.50 – one missed game)

Also, here are the top plays this week via the Week 5 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 4 DFS: QB Report and RB Report.

Top Tier Options

 

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,789)

At DraftKings and FanDuel, Kelce continued to have a tier to himself in salary while not producing any games (4/26/1, 7/69/1, and 6/60) to support his cost. The Chiefs had him on the field for a season-high 79% of their snaps in Week 4 (64% and 61% over the previous two games). Kelce continues to gain short yards per catch (9.1 – 12.2 in 2022) while averaging 8.7 targets (8.9 in 2022). When at his best last year, he gained more than 100 yards in five starts with a floor of seven catches in nine of his 20 games played.

Minnesota played well against tight ends in three matchups (TB – 2/19, PHI – 6/22, and CAR – 1/7), but the Chargers (8/34/2) beat them for two scores by their second tight end (Donald Parham – 2/4/2). Overall, tight ends are gaining 4.8 yards per catch on five targets per game. The Vikings finished 11th in tight end defense (65/796/7 – 12.3 yards per catch). 

Patrick Mahomes hasn’t hit his stride, partly due to his best weapon not being in form early in the year due to a knee issue. The Vikings’ defense will be on the field for many plays this week, giving Kelce his first chance in 2023 to deliver more than 100 yards receiving and double-digit catches. With a touchdown added to the equation, he’ll be in range to support his high price point. I sense a big week, but it will take some maneuvering to finish off the rest of the starting lineup, especially if paired with Mahomes…

 

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Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
DFS

Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 5, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, four quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (Josh Allen – 39.70, Justin Fields – 33.25, Anthony Richardson – 32.60, and Lamar Jackson – 31.00). All four QBs have a running component to […]

Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, four quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (Josh Allen – 39.70, Justin Fields – 33.25, Anthony Richardson – 32.60, and Lamar Jackson – 31.00). All four QBs have a running component to their skill set. Twelve quarterbacks posted more than 30.00 fantasy points in 2023, with Tua Tagovailoa (33.80 and 31.45) leading the way.

Over four weeks of action, here are the top five scoring quarterbacks this season:

  • Justin Herbert – 107.80
  • Josh Allen – 106.00
  • Kirk Cousins – 99.40
  • Tua Tagovailoa – 98.80
  • Lamar Jackson – 97.70

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

Based on his high salary in the DFS market, Mahomes has yet to deliver a winning day over four weeks. He’s averaging two touchdowns, with his best outcome coming in Week 3 (300/3) against the Bears. Only one of his 92 completions gained at least 40 yards (13 in 2022), leading to a career-low 7.0 yards per pass attempt. His top receiver (Travis Kelce) has been limited to 9.1 yards per catch (12.2 in his career). Rashee Rice (13/140/1) is their leading wideout despite being on the field for 36.9% of the Chiefs’ plays.

Minnesota ranks 24th defending quarterbacks (22.36 FPPG), with one disaster showing vs. the Chargers (465/4). Their wide receivers finished with 32 catches for 415 yards and two touchdowns on 39 targets. The Eagles’ wideouts only had eight catches for 160 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets, but they gained 20 yards per catch. 

The game total for this matchup is 52, the highest on the main slate on Sunday. Mahomes comes off a down game (203 passing yards with one score and two interceptions) while averaging 35.8 passes (38.1 in 2022 and 38.7 in 2021). His matchup bodes well for an uptick game, especially if Minnesota scores more than 25 points. 

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