[table id=4 /]
ACES
- Jose Berrios (Twins) @NYY, vs. CIN
- Carlos Carrasco (Indians) @BAL, vs. SEA
- Gerrit Cole (Astros) vs. LAA, vs. OAK
- Rick Porcello (Red Sox) @TOR, vs. TB
- Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees) vs. MIN, @LAA
GREEN LIGHT
Chad Bettis (Rockies) vs. SD, @MIA
Bettis has a 1.44 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but obviously he’s not pitching to those levels. He has a 15.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.3 percent walk rate. Three of his four starts have come on the road. While he’s not an answer long term, he can be considered in deeper formats this week. The Padres aren’t a great offense, although the game is at Coors Field, but on the road at Miami is a favorable matchup.
Kevin Gausman (Orioles) vs. CLE, vs. DET
The biggest problem for Gausman is home runs. He has allowed six in 21 innings and two games at home doesn’t help. He was solid in his last start against the Tigers and he gets them again. The velocity on his fastball is down 2.6 miles per hour to 92.4. He has a swinging strike percentage of 12.1 percent. Cold weather could be a factor in velocity.
Gio Gonzalez (Nationals) @SF, vs. ARI
Gonzalez has a 2.49 ERA, but a 1.52 WHIP. A .371 BABIP hasn’t helped.
J.A. Happ (Blue Jays) vs. BOS, vs. TEX
Happ has been hurt by five home runs in 22 innings. He is getting a lot of strikeouts and has a 14.3 percent swinging strike rate, which is well above his career mark. The Red Sox start is a concern.
Ian Kennedy (Royals) vs. MIL, vs. CWS
Kennedy has a 2.35 ERA, but a 42.3 percent hard hit rate. He’s a fly ball pitcher, so the home runs will come. Fortunately, he gets two starts at home and gets a White Sox team that strikes out often.
Kenta Maeda (Dodgers) vs. MIA, @SF
Yes, it’s only 14.1 innings, but Maeda has bizarre stats. He has a 24:5 K:BB with a .513 BABIP, 1.74 WHIP, 46.2 percent hard hit rate and a 15.1 percent swinging strike rate. He gets two excellent matchups
Tyler Mahle (Reds) vs. ATL, @MIN
Home runs and lack of run support are the issue for Mahle. He has allowed five home runs in 21 innings with a 20:7 K:BB ratio.
Steven Matz (Mets) @STL, @SD
Matz allowed a three-run homer in the first inning of his last start against the Nationals and then settled in, but was pinch hit for in the fourth inning. He has been getting strikeouts, but allowed five home runs in 18.1 innings.
Brandon McCarthy (Braves) @CIN, @PHI
When healthy, McCarthy pitches well. He has a 2.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 50 percent groundball rate and a 25.8 percent hard hit rate.
Jake Odorizzi (Twins) @NYY, vs. CIN
Odorizzi allowed three home runs in his last start and that’s been the problem in his career. The Yankees start is a concern, but the Reds are a good matchup.
Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks) @PHI, @WAS
You know what you’re getting with Ray, who I don’t like. Lots of strikeouts, lots of walks and lots of hard contact. He will have some dominant games and others where he can’t go deep due to elevated pitch counts. If you have him, you’re using him.
Chris Stratton (Giants) vs. WAS, vs. LAD
Stratton has a 2.22 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with a 19:7 K:BB ratio in 24.1 innings.
Vince Velasquez (Phillies) vs. ARI, vs. ATL
Velasquez is using his curve more and it has helped. He has a 3.80 ERA and a 24:5 K:BB ratio in 21.1 innings.
RED LIGHT
Ty Blach (Giants) vs. WAS, vs. LAD
I can’t endorse a pitcher with a 4.44 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.
Trevor Cahill (A’s) @TEX, @HOU
Cahill had periods where he looked good last season. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his season debut against the White Sox and struck out eight. I would consider in deep formats.
Tyler Chatwood (Cubs) @CLE, vs. MIL
He has walked 14 in 15.2 innings.
Zach Davies (Brewers) @KC, @CHC
Davies is getting more strikeouts and has increased his swinging strike percentage 2.6 percent to 9.8 percent as he’s relying less on his 89 miles per hour fastball. He is getting hit hard, with a 46.3 percent hard hit rate. The Royals are a great matchup, but the Cubs are starting to heat up.
Jacob Faria (Rays) @BAL, @BOS
Faria has one awful start that has inflated his stats. That start was against the Reds Sox, though. He allowed eight runs in 1.2 innings in Boston after allowing one run in four innings against them the first time around. The Red Sox are a team to avoid right now as they can inflict a lot of damage to ratios.
Jarlin Garcia (Marlins) @LAD, vs. COL
This one’s tricky. Garcia has allowed two runs in 21 innings, but has 13 strikeouts and 11 walks. He has allowed six hits, but a .096 BABIP and 96.2 percent strand rate has helped. Garcia has a 54.7 percent groundball rate and 26.4 percent hard hit rate. He has pitched well against the Cubs, Mets and Yankees. There’s risk because he won’t go deep into games and wins are tough on this team. The Marlins pulled him after six innings when he had a no-hitter against the Mets. Consider in 15-team leagues.
Tyler Skaggs (Angels) vs. BOS, vs. SF
These two matchups couldn’t be any different. The Red Sox are a scary team and can ruin your week. The Giants are a team to exploit. Skaggs faced the Red Sox in his last start and allowed eight hits and six runs in 4.1 innings.
Other Red Light Pitchers
- Alex Cobb (Orioles) vs. CLE, vs. DET
- Carson Fulmer (White Sox) vs. SEA, @KC
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners) @CWS, @CLE
- Miguel Gonzalez (White Sox) vs. SEA, @KC
- Chad Kuhl (Pirates) vs. DET, vs. STL
- Mike Leake (Mariners) @CWS, @CLE
- Bryan Mitchell (Padres) @COL, vs. NYM
- Matt Moore (Rangers) vs. OAK, @TOR
- Sal Romano (Reds) vs. ATL, @MIN
- CC Sabathia (Yankees) vs. MIN, @LAA
- Josh Tomlin (Indians) @BAL, vs. SEA
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) vs. NYM, @PIT
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