Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 16
The NFL season is barreling toward its dramatic conclusion, and our Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 16 brings crucial decisions for managers on the cusp of glory—or despair. With championship berths on the line, setting the right lineup is more important than ever. Let’s break down some key start/sit decisions for the week, helping you separate the stars from the duds in this critical stretch.
Subsequently, our Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 16 will help you navigate that turbulence to pick a winning lineup this week. Additionally, FullTime Fantasy has some of the top tools of the trade and accurate rankings.
QuarterbacksÂ
Start ‘Em
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
Kyler Murray’s Week 15 performance against the Patriots didn’t quite deliver the fantasy fireworks managers hoped for. The Cardinals dropped 30 points, but much of the scoring came through the ground game and their opportunistic defense, leaving Murray outside the top 12 fantasy QBs despite solid passing yardage. However, don’t let last week’s disappointment cloud your judgment. The Panthers’ defense has been a sieve, surrendering 27 passing touchdowns this season—tied for the league’s worst. Even Cooper Rush torched them for three scores just last week. Murray sits comfortably in QB1 territory against Carolina. Unless you have an elite alternative, roll with him confidently.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
After a quiet Week 15 against Minnesota, Caleb Williams looks poised for a bounce-back game. The rookie sensation scorched the Lions in Week 13, tallying an electrifying 32.1 fantasy points, and now gets a favorable rematch at home. Detroit’s defense is riddled with injuries, including key contributors like Alim McNeill and Carlton Davis, leaving them vulnerable. Expect Williams to take advantage of the depleted Lions and produce as a low-end QB1 this week.
Check out where Caleb William ranks in our Week 16 QB Rankings
Sit ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
Fantasy managers are used to Mahomes being a set-it-and-forget-it option, but recent weeks have been brutal. Mahomes hasn’t topped 17 fantasy points in three consecutive games and is now nursing a high ankle sprain. Combine that with the Houston Texans‘ pressure-heavy defense—third-best in generating QB hurries—and Mahomes is a risky play in Week 16. His ceiling feels capped, and with your fantasy season on the line, it’s best to look elsewhere.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stroud’s struggles are undeniable—he’s failed to crack 16 fantasy points in eight straight games and hasn’t been a QB1 since Week 4. While Kansas City’s defense isn’t impenetrable, Stroud’s lack of passing yardage and low touchdown production make him a fantasy non-factor. Championship week is no time to gamble on a name without the numbers to back it up.
Running Backs
Start ‘Em
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Over the past three weeks, Rico Dowdle has been an absolute workhorse for Dallas, delivering three straight 100-yard games and operating as the clear lead back. This week, he faces a tough challenge against the Buccaneers’ stout run defense, which has stymied some of the league’s best backs. However, Dowdle’s high snap count and Dallas’ reliance on the ground game in tight matchups give him a solid floor. He’s a must-start unless you have multiple elite options.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Jerome Ford has stepped up in Cleveland’s backfield with Nick Chubb out for the season. Ford exploded for 18.4 PPR points in Week 15, buoyed by a 62-yard touchdown run. He now faces a Bengals defense that has been vulnerable to running backs, giving up seven double-digit fantasy performances in their last five games. Ford projects as a strong RB2, especially if the Browns’ offense can stay functional with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
Sit ‘Em
Isaiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
Fantasy managers hoping for a Pacheco breakout have been left wanting. Since returning from injury, he’s been stuck in a timeshare with Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine, limiting his volume and effectiveness. The Texans’ defense, meanwhile, has quietly shut down opposing RBs, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards since Week 11. Avoid this backfield quagmire if you can.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Harris’s recent inconsistency makes him a risky play. While he posted a decent outing against Baltimore in Week 11, the Ravens’ top-10 run defense and Harris’ limited role in the passing game cap his upside. With just one reception over his last two games, Harris is a touchdown-dependent flex option at best.
Wide Receivers
Start ‘Em
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
Smith finally broke out in Week 15, notching his first 100-yard game of the season. Injuries have disrupted his season, but with Dallas Goedert sidelined, Smith should continue to see increased targets. Washington’s struggling secondary provides a golden opportunity for Smith to shine again.
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Thielen has been a steady presence in Carolina’s offense, and while his Week 15 output was pedestrian, injuries to key teammates could elevate his role this week. Facing a Cardinals defense that’s been respectable against wideouts, Thielen still offers a solid floor with potential for a bounce-back performance.
Sit ‘Em
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Williams has struggled away from Detroit with 3 games of 8 fantasy points or less and failed to deliver in a prior matchup with the Bears. He’s a desperation play in Week 16 with limited production and a low ceiling.
Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Cooper’s usage has plummeted, and with Buffalo’s crowded receiving corps, he’s too volatile to trust. The fact is that Josh Allen doesn’t need Cooper to score points or win games. Last week’s goose egg in targets is a glaring red flag, making him a bench candidate this week.
Tight Ends
Start ‘Em
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Kincaid’s target share remains encouraging, and the Patriots have struggled to contain top fantasy tight ends. Kincaid showed flashes last week and would have had a TD were it not for a phantom holding penalty. While his limited snap count tempers expectations, he’s a fringe TE1 with upside this week.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Freiermuth’s three-game touchdown streak makes him a reliable option against a Ravens defense that has allowed significant yardage to tight ends. With WR George Pickens missing in action again, feel free to roll with Muth.
Sit ‘Em
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Otton’s production has cratered, and the Cowboys’ defense will unlikely provide a get-right opportunity. WR Jalen McMillan has been the apple of Mayfield’s eye these last few weeks. Look for other options with more consistent involvement.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ferguson’s preseason promise has evaporated with inconsistent quarterback play and limited volume. Despite Tampa Bay’s struggles against tight ends, Ferguson’s low floor makes him a risky option.
This week is all about making smart, data-driven decisions to keep your championship hopes alive. Play it safe with proven producers, and don’t be afraid to pivot away from big names when the matchup or recent performance dictates otherwise.
