AFC Championship Preview
We are down to the final four. FullTime Fantasy‘s AFC Championship Preview breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective for Sunday’s Bills vs. Chiefs showdown.
And just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean the fun is over. FFWC Playoff Fantasy Football is a great way to extend the fantasy fun and win amazing prizes!
Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)
Time: 6:30 Eastern
Line: Chiefs -2
Total: 47.5
Money Line: Bills +110, Chiefs -125
Bills Offense
The Buffalo Bills have come up short in their quest to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since losing four straight to open the 1990s. Unfortunately, their biggest obstacle has been the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, who have appeared in seven consecutive AFC title games. Is this the year that the Bills go on the road and finally do it?
For that to happen, Josh Allen must play like he did in Week 11, when the Bills beat KC 30-21. Buffalo outgained Kansas City 366-259 in that game and forced a pair of interceptions. Allen sealed the victory with a 2-yard TD run on fourth down. Buffalo has defeated Kansas City four straight times in the regular season. However, the Chiefs have eliminated Buffalo from the playoffs three times. Allen must avoid turnovers to give his team a shot at toppling Goliath.
RDA* projections for the week like RB James Cook. However, the Chiefs boasted the stingiest defense in the league for opposing running back. KC held Cook to 20 yards on nine carries in Week 11. However, Cook punched in two touchdowns to salvage his fantasy outing.
Ray Davis and Ty Johnson will spell Cook, with Johnson playing more of a role in the passing game. Both are in ‘DFS dart throw’ territory.
Khalil Shakir leads Buffalo’s receiving corp. Shakir caught eight balls for 70 yards against the Chiefs and our RDA* projections have Shakir as our WR5 for the week. He’ll mostly be facing off against Kansas City slot corner Chamarri Conner, who allows the most fantasy points per route (0.36) in the secondary.
It’s hard to trust Buffalo’s other wideouts. Amari Cooper has caught two balls for eight yards in the postseason. Rookie Keon Coleman plays future snaps but has also done next to nothing in the playoffs.
Expect the Bills to utilize a ton of ’12’ sets with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Defending the tight end position has been problematic for the Chiefs, who surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Knox caught four for 40 against Kansas City previously, a game that Kincaid missed. Our RDA* projections have the duo combining to catch seven passes for 71 yards with a 38-percent shot at a score.
Chiefs Offense
Chiefs’ fatigue is real. Just open up your favorite social media source and look for the ubiquitous referee/Patrick Mahomes memes. With seven straight appearances in this game, people are over it. And Vegas thinks the Bills have a real shot in this game. It should be an instant classic.
Speaking of Patrick Mahomes, he averages 260.4 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and seven INTs in five career regular-season meetings against the Bills. However, in the postseason, Mahomes jumps up to 306 yards with eight TDs and no interceptions in three postseason outings. His passing prop is 252.5 yards with a stellar -154 line on the OVER 1.5 TDs.
Any Reid will employ a committee backfield. We keep waiting for Isiah Pacheco to take the lead but it’s just not happening. Kareem Hunt continues to be a major factor and seems to be the preferred short-yardage option. Our RDA* projections came out higher on Pacheco, but Hunt seems like the better value.
Isiah Pacheco’s post-injury productivity raises questions for the Chiefs’ ground game. (via @ShowMeFB) https://t.co/Sh5sNMt3UL
— Arrowhead Addict (@ArrowheadAddict) January 24, 2025
It’s also difficult to decipher who is Kansas City’s No. 1 receiver. The matchup is a good one for the group, though. Buffalo allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to the position.
Xavier Worthy is the best bet and has been surging. He’s averaged eight targets per game since putting a 4/61/1 line on Buffalo in Week 11. Vegas has Worthy’s scrimmage yard total at 56.5 yards. However, our RDA* projections are higher, so we like the value this week.
While Worthy has excelled, DeAndre Hopkins has eroded. Nuk hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 14 and didn’t even catch a pass against Houston last week. He only caught three balls for 29 yards against the Bills in Week 11. This week’s total looks inviting but Hopkins’s lack of production over the last month is concerning.
Vegas favors Hollywood Brown to be a better start than Hopkins. Brown’s receiving prop (39.5) and TD odds (+260) are higher. Also, our RDA* projections agree, projecting Hollywood to outscore Nuk 10.4 to 8.4 in PPR.
It’s January, so expect Travis Kelce to play out. Our No. 1 tight end for Week 21, Kelce has scored in back-to-back games and is coming off his highest yardage total of the season. Conversely, the Bills were middle-of-the-pack, allowing 12.0 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs.
Notable AFC Championship Preview betting takeaways per Ben Fawks and ESPN Bet:
- 71.4% of bets and 73.5% of handle are on Bills (+2, opened +1)
- 67.7% of bets and 50.5% of handle are on Bills ML (+110)
- 72.6% of bets and 59.3% of handle are on OVER (47.5, opened 48.5)
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