Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 15

Starts and Sits to consider for Week 15

Tua Tagovailoa

The 2022 fantasy football regular season has come to a close with the playoffs looming. The must-win games are here. Our Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 15 picks help you identify values to target and fades to avoid.

It is also crucial to know which waiver wire pick to make and to stay up-to-date on the injury report. Here are our Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 15. Also, as a friendly reminder, there are 3 NFL games this Saturday

Editor’s note: This article is written by Bradley Stalder

QUARTERBACKS 

Start ‘Em

Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee Titans)

Tannehill’s a matchup-dependent start, as he’s finished as a top-12 QB against the Giants, Raiders, Packers, Broncos, and Jaguars defenses. And this week is an underrated matchup. The LA Chargers give up about 17 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and will be looking to push the ball down the field against the Tennessee secondary which gives up the most WR fantasy points on the season. The projected game total for Sunday’s matchup is a respectable 47 points. While Derrick Henry should be able to move the ball well against the porous Chargers’ run defense, this will also put the Titans into scoring position. Tannehill is on the streaming radar for the first week of the fantasy playoffs, especially with many other fringe QB1s with tougher matchups this week. 

Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts)

Start your quarterbacks against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have been the 6th best Pass DVOA matchup on the year and allow the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Jared Goff just finished as the QB4 overall and threw for 330 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. The Colts- Vikings matchup is the 2nd highest projected game total on the week, and Matt Ryan has two top-5 finishes on the season

Sit ‘Em

Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)

Geno has been absolutely sensational this season. But if there was a matchup to bench him, it’s against the 49ers. The first meeting between Smith and San Francisco did not end well. Smith didn’t throw a TD, and only earned 7 fantasy points, finishing as the QB30 on the week. San Francisco has continued to torch opposing QBs. On the season, the 49ers have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to QBs and have the 5th toughest pass DVOA. Even Tom Brady was only able to muster 12 fantasy points against SF in Week 14, throwing 1 TD and 2 INTs, finishing as the QB18 (there were only 26 starting QBs). 

Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)

It’s clear that Tua isn’t right out there. Whether teams are adjusting to coaching schemes or the lingering effects of the sprained ankle from a few weeks ago, Tagovailoa has finished as the QB17 or worse each of the last three weeks. Jaylen Waddle is still dealing with a leg injury and Tyreek Hill picked up a pesky ankle injury in Week 14’s matchup. Buffalo only allows 13.4 fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season, and this week’s matchup only has a projected O/U of 42 points– with the Bills 7.5 home favorites.

RUNNING BACKS

Start ‘Em

Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs)

Yes, backfield mate Jerick McKinnon finished as the RB1 overall in Week 14 (to the chagrin of many managers who benched him), but Pacheco has been consistently solid over the past 4 weeks. Pacheco finished no worse than the RB21 during that span. In fact, Pacheco’s targets have increased each of the last three weeks– a clear sign that the coaches trust his role. The most obvious part of this matchup is that the Houston Texans allow the most rushing yards to RBs on the season, and Pacheco has led the Chiefs in rushing yards each of the last five weeks. 

JK Dobbins (Baltimore Ravens)

Dobbins showed exactly what we wanted to see from him– vision and burst down the field. While he received criticism for finishing his long 50-yard run on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dobbins still showed he has breakaway speed. He finished 15-120-1 in his return from the knee injury. In Week 15, he faces a Browns defense that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs on the season and has been the 3rd most favorable run defense, per Football Outsiders DVOA metric. Confidently fire up JK Dobbins as an RB2.

Sit ‘Em

Kenneth Walker/ Travis Homer/ DeeJay Dallas (Seattle Seahawks)

This situation is probably worse than last week when fantasy managers knew in advance that Kenneth Walker would most likely sit due to his injury. Fast forward to Week 15, and Walker got in a limited practice on Monday and is trending toward playing Thursday night’s game against the 49ers. And, while San Francisco’s defense has been tough against opposing quarterbacks, they’ve been even stingier against running backs. The 49ers give up the fewest fantasy points, have a defensive line projected advantage of 56% over Seattle’s offensive line, and are Football Outsiders’ 2nd toughest Rush Defense, per their DVOA metric. It’s even worse if Walker can’t go or is limited. You should have a low level of confidence starting a Seattle Seahawks backfield in Week 15.

Raheem Mostert (Miami Dolphins)

We haven’t seen Mostert carry the ball more than 11 times since Week 8 against Detroit. Even then, he went 14-64 on the ground and finished as the RB36. Although Jeff Wilson is trending to miss Week 15, Mostert is a risky start. The Buffalo Bills give up the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs, rank as the 3rd toughest rush DVOA matchup, and are projected by PFF to have a 53% advantage over the ailing Miami offensive line.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start ‘Em

Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints)

Olave’s been on a bit of a cold streak as he headed into his bye week. He’s finished as the WR39 or worse in 3 of his last 4 games. Despite that, the impressive rookie is still WR6 in air yards, WR5 in air yards share, WR7 in average target distance, WR3 in deep targets, WR11 in receiving yards, WR10 in yards per route run, WR10 in yards per team pass attempt, and WR19 in fantasy points per game. The Atlanta matchup is prime for fantasy points. The Falcons allow the 5th most fantasy points to WRs, are the 4th most generous in Pass DVOA, and the Saints have a projected 26% Pass Block advantage over the Falcons’ defensive line. Andy Dalton will hit Olave for a couple of big plays in this one.

Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders)

The last time the Giants and Commanders squared off, McLaurin went 8-105 on 12 targets and scored a TD, finishing as the WR8. McLaurin is the WR17 on the season and has seen double-digit targets in two of his last four games. He also has a 93% projected advantage, per PFF, against the opposing Giants’ secondary. This is poised to be a deja vu game for McLaurin.

DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)

Don’t get cute and sit DeVonta Smith for “better options.” He is the better option this week. Smith has finished as the WR10 and WR17 each of the last two weeks. He’s earned 8 or more targets in six of his last seven games. This matchup against the Bears could turn into an absolute slaughter, as Smith has a projected 98% advantage over the Bears’ secondary. The Bears are also the 2nd most favorable pass DVOA matchup and the Eagles’ OL is projected to have a 62% Pass Block advantage, per PFF. Fire up DeVonta Smith as a solid WR2 with WR1 upside. 

Sit ‘Em

Marquise Brown (Arizona Cardinals)

Kyler Murray is out for the year with a torn ACL. How is Hollywood supposed to access a ceiling now? He was already struggling to do so coming off of the injured reserve. Brown has finished as the WR52 and WR56 each of the last two weeks despite earning 8 targets. The matchup against Denver isn’t much better, as the Broncos are the 3rd toughest pass DVOA matchup on the season and allow the 2nd fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. There’s not much flashy about Hollywood in Week 15.

Despite a healthy amount of reps per FullTime’s Advanced Snap Report, Marquise Brown is a risk in Week 15.

Mack Hollins (Las Vegas Raiders)

Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller should be returning shortly to the Vegas Raiders lineup. Even with both receivers out, Hollins hasn’t been much more than a high-risk WR4. In fact, he’s finished as the WR54 and WR44 each of the last two weeks. Hollins has a projected 13% advantage, per PFF, against the New England secondary (for reference, 50% is average). Trusting the likes of Mack Hollins in your playoff matchup is too risky. Consider starting Elijah Moore, Jameson Williams, or Jahan Dotson instead if you’re looking for a similar-tier WR. 

Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings)

 Thielen gets the Isaiah Rodgers treatment this weekend. Rodgers, per PlayerProfiler, has given up more than 23 receiving yards only once in the season. Thielen has been up and down this year, finishing in the top 12 of WRs two of the last four weeks– the weeks he didn’t finish top 12? Thielen finished outside WR67 on those weeks. The floor is scary for Thielen this week against a secondary that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs.

TIGHT ENDS

Start ‘Em

Tyler Conklin (New York Jets)

You know the TE position is bad when Tyler Conklin finishes as the TE13 with five fantasy points in half PPR. Conklin has been a trusted outlet for Mike White, earning 15 targets over the last two weeks. If White isn’t able to go against the Lions, Joe Flacco also targeted Conklin 24 times in three starts– including one game where Conklin finished as the weekly TE5. The Lions give up the 4th most fantasy points to TEs and Conklin gets a sneaky bump this week.

Taysom Hill (New Orleans Saints)

Over his last three games, Taysom Hill has played 50% snaps in each game–something he hadn’t done at all earlier this season. During that time, Hill has two top-9 finishes at TE. This week, he gets the Atlanta Falcons, whom he torched for 15 fantasy points, and the TE3 overall finish. When looking at other TE options, Taysom Hill offers access to high-upside fantasy scores. That is unlike other back-end TE1. Risk it for the championship biscuit.

Sit ‘Em

Noah Fant (Seattle Seahawks)

 Should fantasy managers just fade all of the Seahawks? They are outmatched at nearly every offensive position except at wide receiver. The 49ers allow the 2nd fewest fantasy points to Tight Ends on the season. Specifically, Fant has a tough TE/LB matchup as Dre Greenlaw has allowed 36 or fewer receiving yards in eight of twelve games this season. PFF also grades Greenlaw as the best coverage linebacker among LBs with at least 115 coverage snaps. Fant is also coming off a 0-catch game on 1 target against Carolina. 

Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins)

Gesicki has finished as the TE47 or worse and earned two or fewer targets in four of the last five games. Even with both Waddle and Hill hobbled on Sunday night, Gesicki couldn’t get anything going. He hasn’t had a catch since Week 10 against Cleveland. Now he gets a tough Buffalo defense and an even tougher TE/LB matchup against Tremaine Edmunds.

 


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About Jody Smith 273 Articles
With over a decade of winning experience, Jody is a well-known fixture in the fantasy football community. He was named Fantasy Pros’ **Most Accurate Ranker** previously and was the site’s Top NFL over/under totals picker with a record 65% accuracy in 2020, while also ranking 5th in the country with a 55% against-the-spread hit rate. Jody has written for many sites over the years including Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, CBS Sportsline, FantasyData, and is a regular contributor to the Fantasy Index magazine expert’s poll, draft, and auction.Jody’s experience ranking and projecting player performance will help prepare the Fulltime Fam for their big draft days as well as answers they can trust on Sunday for those ever crucial Who Do I Start questions.