When you looked at this week’s schedule, there was some hope that we’d see a big uptick in fantasy scoring. Those hope got dashed pretty quickly, as you’ll see in this Fantasy Football Recap Week 3.
It’s not that there weren’t some intriguing games and stat lines. It just felt like all the wrong guys were scoring. So many elite players were primed to have great matchups in the early slate, but that’s not exactly how it played out.
Let’s look back on the fantasy football recap Week 3 and see what positives we can take away from a strange week of NFL action.
Cold Open
No matter how many hours of research you do during the week, sometimes there are “those” weeks. Week 3 got off to a slow start, setting the table for a long day of football.
With Buffalo’s secondary decimated by injuries and facing a Miami offense that just went wild last week, I expected a lot of passing and points. Not to mention, that neither team has a running back score in either of their first two games.
Naturally, that’s exactly how the game began. First, Devin Singletary and then Chase Edmonds got short scores to set the frustrating tone for the week.
Right after that, David Montgomery got hurt, and Khalil Herbert naturally housed a score against the Texans.
Those kinds of things are even more upsetting for analysts because we know that people rely on us for advice. Like when Edmonds has two stinkers in a row and you look at his usage plus a matchup against the Bills. Seems like a good plan to sit him, only to have him punch in a score on the first drive.
Unfortunately, Montgomery wouldn’t be the only early injury. Tee Higgins, Amon Ra-St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Tua Tagovailoa all left their respective games. Fortunately, all but Wilson returned but the precedent of an ugly Sunday was set.
Throwing in the Towel
You can fade a bad game. I preached patience even after Week 2. That still seems too early to give up on guys. But when you get out of the gate with three shoddy performances in a row, it’s time to cut bait.
Fantasy football isn’t the easiest game to accurately project, but that’s the game. I felt really good about our process and 2022 fantasy football draft rankings. But, it is time to admit defeat with a few of my preseason misses.
Justin Fields has been absolutely brutal. He had a chance to salvage some fantasy value against a hapless Houston team, but Fields once again struggled. His inadequacies have torpedoed the entire Chicago offense. And there’s little recourse for the Bears’ new regime, which will have to target QB early in April.
With Fields’ awful play, there’s simply no reason to roster TE Cole Kmet. WR Darnell Mooney should also be cut in the vast majority of fantasy leagues. Only in dynasty formats can you justify keeping either one of these guys around.
Mooney got all of five targets in 59 snaps. Kmet got two and played the same number of downs.
Matt Ryan showed some signs of decline last season but I figured Frank Reich could resurrect his career.
Nope.
Ryan entered Week 3 outside of the top-20 and had another pot outing until the fourth quarter. His poor play is also having a negative effect on Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor. That alone warrants Ryan being banned from fantasy rosters, but I suppose you can keep him around in Superflex formats.
In a game where Mac Jones threw for 321 yards, Hunter Henry had one target.
Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay haven’t been on the field very often, and when they have, they’ve had zero impact. New York’s new regime didn’t draft these guys, and fantasy managers who did should be looking elsewhere.
Kenyan Drake was a healthy scratch and the Ravens scored 37.
Backfield Breakdown
With so few teams employing a workhorse running back, it is important for us to track how teams are dividing their backfield touches.
Here are the fantasy opportunities from some of Sunday’s backfields. Opportunities means carries plus targets.
Baltimore – J.K. Dobbins 26 snaps, 9 opp.; Justice Hill 28 snaps, 6 opp.
Chicago – David Montgomery (INJ) 11 snaps, 3 opp; Khalil Herbert 38 snaps, 22 opp.; Trestan Ebner 15 snaps, 8 opp.
Atlanta – Cordarrelle Patterson 35 snaps, 18 opp.; Tyler Allgeier 21 snaps, 7 opp.
Buffalo – Devin Singletary 67(!) snaps, 19 opp.; Zack Moss 16 snaps, 5 opp.; James Cook 10 snaps, 6 opp.
Detroit – D’Andre Swift 32 snaps, 11 opp.; Jamaal Williams 35 snaps, 21 opp.
Green Bay – Aaron Jones 39 snaps, 16 0pp.; A.J. Dillon 33 snaps, 15 opp.
Houston – Dameon Pierce 35 snaps, 22 opp.; Rex Burkhead 24 snaps, 8 opp.
Jacksonville – James Robinson 44 snaps, 20 opp.; Travis Etienne 33 snaps, 16 opp.
Kansas City – Jerick McKinnon 21 snaps, 8 opp.; Clyde Edwards-Helaire 25 snaps, 12 opp.
Los Angeles Rams – Cam Akers 23 snaps, 11 opp.; Darrell Henderson 25 snaps, 5 opp.
Miami – Raheem Mostert 24 snaps, 9 opp.; Chase Edmonds 19 snaps, 7 opp.
New England – Rhamondre Stevenson 41 snaps, 17 opp.; Damien Harris 35 snaps, 14 opp.
New York Jets – Breece Hall 42 snaps, 19 opp.; Michael Carter 36 snaps, 13 opp.
Philadelphia – Miles Sanders 41 snaps, 16 opp.; Kenneth Gainwell 22 snaps, 3 opp.; Boston Scott 7 snaps, 2 opp.
Washington – J.D. McKissic 41 snaps, 11 opp.; Antonio Gibson 34 snaps, 13 opp.
Week 4 Preview
Miami at Cincinnati (-1.5)
Minnesota at New Orleans (+2) from London at 9:30 ET
Seattle at Detroit (-6)
New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
Chicago at New York Giants (-2.5)
Tennessee at Indianapolis (-3)
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston (+6.5)
Cleveland at Atlanta (+3)
Washington at Dallas (-3)
Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-7)
Buffalo at Baltimore (+3)
Arizona at Carolina (-1)
Denver at Las Vegas (-1.5)
New England at Green Bay (-8)
Kansas City at Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco (-2)
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