Advanced ADP Provides High/Low Draft Ranges for Starting RBs

Senior fantasy football expert Shawn Childs discusses the benefits of waiting on a QB and we use our Advanced ADP to show the best time to strike.

Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

ADP Analysis: QB1 | QB2 | Starting RBs | Backup RBs | Starting WRs | Backup WRs | TEs

(Editor’s note: To view the best ADP available anywhere online, please check out our Advanced ADP tool, which pulls draft results only from the 10 most recent FFWC drafts. Only the best and cash-winning players play high-stakes so this ADP is simply a cut above!)

After looking at the overall ADP, here are the top 12 running backs in the Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) this season:

This season the top running backs will get snapped quickly in the first and the second rounds with fantasy owners hoping to land Christian McCaffrey with the first overall pick. Each starting running back has a written profile in the Team Outlooks. This season the top running back class has plenty of talent at RB1 with enough length to push well through the second round.

Heading into 2019, the top running back position looked to have a four dog race for the best in the league. In the end, Christian McCaffrey dusted the field with some of his hidden success coming on the ground after the Cam Newton injury.

The only other running back that fantasy owners are willing to bet on as the No. 1 draft selection this year is Saquon Barkley. His play was exceptional in his rookie season, but a high ankle sprain and a couple of missed games led to a disappointing season. The Giants’ offense is progressing quicker than expected thanks to Daniel Jones outperforming his doubters in 2019.

Ezekiel Elliott has all the tools to be a difference-maker while setting a high floor in most weeks. Dak Prescott does vulture some of his rushing touchdowns, but the Cowboys now have one of the best wide receiving corps in the league.

Last year Alvin Kamara lost his scoring ability in 2019 (six TDs over 14 games), which came after posting 31 touchdowns over his first 31 games. He also struggled to make big plays in the passing game (6.6 yards per catch – 9.5 over his first two seasons in the NFL). Kamara has 81 catches in each year in the NFL, helping his consistency factor.

Dalvin Cook broke through last year while leaving some stats on the table due to sitting in Week 16 and Week 17 with a shoulder issue and a quiet four-game stretch (239 combined yards with three TDs and 13 catches) from Week 11 to Week 15. Early in the summer, there was a fear that his contract issue may lead to a holdout.

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The outlier in the first round, as far as lack of value in the passing game, is Derrick Henry. He brings a power running style with a high scoring upside. Henry almost has an Adrian Peterson feel in rushing yards while showing big-play ability when given a chance to catch the ball. If he can push his catch total to the 40 range, Henry will become a 300-point player in PPR leagues.

Miles Sanders and Joe Mixon are the two intriguing running backs in the first round. Sanders excelled late in 2019 when given the full show in Philly. He has three-down ability with growth expected this year. Mixon gains a hotshot young quarterback who should help him build off his finish over the second half of last year.

Nick Chubb gets a knock in value due to having a great running back (Kareem Hunt) on the Browns’ roster. Chubb will catch passes and score touchdowns, but he’ll be on the sidelines on passing downs on many plays.

Based on last year’s finish, Aaron Jones looks underpriced. He is in a contract year while playing for a short salary this year. Green Bay drafted a power runner this year for insurance, which may cost Jones some touchdowns. Jones should have another gear in the passing game.

There is a lot to like about Austin Ekeler in the passing game, and he has been working hard to get stronger in 2020. The change at quarterback is going to lower his opportunity in the passing game and scoring.

There is only one running back that looks like an impact option in the second round back grouping. Clyde Edwards-Helaire slides into an excellent opportunity for the Chiefs. His draft value will continue to climb in August, making him a tough player to land in the second round. Kansas City has a top offense, and they will feature the running back position. Don’t be shy here.

Josh Jacobs is the top second-year running back in this group. He ran the ball well in his rookie season while battling a shoulder injury. His next step is becoming a factor in the passing game. For now, a lower version of Derrick Henry.

Melvin Gordon slips into a developing offense in Denver, but he will compete for touches with Phillip Lindsay. I expect him to see enough action on all three downs to outperform his draft value.

Jonathan Taylor draws the breakout tag, but he isn’t a lock to hit the ground running. The Colts continue to mention their two top RBs as 1A and 1B, but Taylor owns the edge in power and speed, which should win out over the long haul. His biggest question will come in the passing game.

Bell struggled in all areas last year, but his pass-catching and high touch volume paints him as a bounce-back candidate. The Jets’ offense should be improved along with their offensive line.

I have David Johnson ranked higher than most, which makes him a target for me in the fourth round based on his current ADP (39). Johnson should be showcased in the passing game while earning plenty of chances on early downs.

Final Thoughts

After the first 49 picks in PPR leagues in 2020, there will be 24 RBs drafted, forcing the wide receiver strong owners to chase at the running back position. I’d suggest a fantasy owner review the running back options over the first five rounds. If possible, grab an elite edge at RB1 while finding the right balance to add a second running back while developing an impactful core at the wide receiver position.

If you cheat the RB2 position, it is essential to get a feel for possible handcuffs. I know every fantasy owner would love to have depth at the RB position, but most fantasy teams will be lucky to own two playable running backs in 2019 if they want to be competitive at the other positions on their roster.

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About Shawn Childs 770 Articles
Shawn Childs has been a high stakes Fantasy baseball and football player since 2004 where he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). In early years of the high stakes market in Fantasy baseball, he was ahead of the curve in player evaluation, draft value, and free agent bidding setting up four top-five finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has four AL-only Auction titles, one NL-only title, and five Main Event titles plus an overall title in 2012 at RTFBC (netted $10,000). This success led to an induction into the NFBC Baseball Hall of Fame. His success in the high stakes market led to a career in providing Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football content. On the football side, he’s competed and won in all different formats – auctions, draft championship, main events, and high-dollar leagues. He won 2nd place overall in the 2014 Most Accurate Salary Cap Expert contest at FantasyPros.As a dual-sport player, it was natural to transition to the daily games where he is a “swing for the fences type of guy.” Childs has appeared in one FanDuel NFL Live Final and one DraftKings NFL Live Final, a season-ending tournament which led to a couple of chances to win over $1,000,000.