December 30th, 2019
The Burning Edge
The Burning Edge is a PGA DFS must read each week. Not for the writing…. Trust me. Simply for the best and most consistent picks in the entire industry. I will not be giving you 40 golfers to choose from each week, I will simplify the game for you and give you the best chance to win money. Don’t just glance over my article because even the slightest detail can help change your lineup and possibly change your life forever.
This article will consist of my top plays on the slate for both major DFS sites. Trust the process and reap the rewards.
STOP READING IF:
- You don’t like winning money.
- You don’t like to take risks.
- You don’t want to learn.
- You expect to win every single week.
Tournament Stop
Tournament: Sentry Tournament of Champions
Defending Champion: Xander Schauffelle -23
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Yardage: 7,500
Par: 73
Greens: Bermuda
***NO CUT EVENT***
Tournament History
2019: Xander Schauffele 1st, Gary Woodland 2nd
2018: Dustin Johnson 1st, Jon Rahm 2nd
2017: Justin Thomas 1st, 2nd not in field
Key Stats
SG Ball Striking- Top 10 in field
-Corey Conners
-Matt Kuchar
-Jon Rahm
-Justin Thomas
-Kevin Kisner
-Paul Casey
-Rickie Fowler
-Keith Mitchell
-Dustin Johnson
-Gary Woodland
Par 4 (350-400yds)- Top 10 in field
-Rickie Fowler
-Gary Woodland
-Chez Reavie
-Sebastian Munoz
-JT Poston
-Dustin Johnson
-Matthew Wolff
-Sung Kang
-J.B. Holmes
-Paul Casey
SG Putting-Top 10 in field
-Rickie Fowler
-Sung Kang
-Sebastian Munoz
-Graeme McDowell
-Brendon Todd
-Matt Kuchar
-JT Poston
-Dustin Johnson
-Jon Rahm
-Lanto Griffin
Top 10 overall rankings
-Justin Thomas
-Jon Rahm
-Dustin Johnson
-Rickie Fowler
-Paul Casey
-Matt Kuchar
-JT Poston
-Chez Reavie
-Patrick Cantlay
-Corey Conners
These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.
Top Notch Options
Best plays on the slate with winning upside.
Justin Thomas- It’s quite simple in a no cut event to plug in JT and move on. A pure scorer even with his B game. With his A game he will shoot -28 and walk away with this tournament. I expect a couple of rounds in the mid 60’s for JT this week. His course history is a 3rd, 22nd,1st, and 21st place finishes. JT’s upside is always through the roof and he should see a healthy amount of birdie and eagle chances this week. Plug in and move on.
Jon Rahm- If you don’t bite on JT, can I interest you in a little Jon Rahm? Yes, he is the highest priced golfer on the slate. Yes, he will garner a lot of ownership. All for good reason, he has played in seven tournaments this year and he has three wins, three second place finishes, and one missed cut. Those numbers are Tiger Woods in his prime good. The choice is tough between the two golfers, but it is possible to cram in both and deep dive in the 6k range to make a stars and scrubs build. I don’t recommend that. Take a stand on one and be confident with it.
Salary Savers
Salary relief for balanced builds.
Patrick Reed- With 10 straight cuts made early in the year and a very strong finish to last season Reed is in mint form currently. At a balanced price he can be paired with one of the top guys to make for an intriguing build. His course history at Kapalua is a 25th, 6th, 2nd and 1st place finishes. This course fits his eye and when he is striking the ball well, he can go very low. I see a top 8 finish with top 5 upside this week for Reed.
Sebastian Munoz- Munoz got his win early in the swing season at Sanderson Farms with some serious help from his flat stick. This course isn’t challenging tee to green, most of the scoring with happen if the flat stick is rolling right. He ranks well in my model and at this salary in a no cut event, he is worth the roster spot for his scoring upside and ability to limit big numbers. We need to find a difference maker this week and he falls in that category for me.
Tourney Treasures
Lower owned golfers with upside.
Chez Reavie- This is purely an ownership play for me. We have no course history for Reavie and a price higher than most want to spend on his lack of recent form. This course should force a lot of golfers to club down with the elevation factor and Reavie should have his wedge in hand more than normal. He is exceptional with his wedges and this course contains four par 4’s 350 yards or less. Very conducive to short approach shots. We can expect at least one very low round from Reavie but if he heats up watch out for him to creep up the leaderboards by Sunday.
JT Poston- A regular in my write ups is The Postman. Last year he made a huge leap mentally and came out with a win late in the season. He has continued to produce respectable outings since his win with some very low rounds. This can turn into a putting contest and his ability to limit three putts and sink 20 ft putts makes him interesting in a no cut event. With a chance to showcase his ability in a strong field he will be highly motivated to post a strong finish.
Sneaky Suspicion
Gut Play.
Rickie Fowler- Fowler has played this course twice posting a 4th and 5th place finish. He excels on short par 4’s and has eagle upside on any par 5 he steps foot on. This course has four par 5’s and four short par 4’s. This course suits his game perfectly and he will be overlooked with a hot Gary Woodland below him and a safer bet in Cantlay above him. This could be the year of Rickie. If so, it starts this week.
Fade
Stay away from this golfer.
Colin Morikawa- No doubt he will post a score under par. I’m thinking low teens and at his price it will be hard to pay off in such a strong field. The golfers that know more about the course around his price should have a clear advantage. I expect a low weekend from Morikawa but a sluggish start to set him to far behind pace. In a no cut event its challenging to say fade this guy or fade that guy, so if you like him go for it.
On The Edge
Golfers that just missed the write up cut.
Gary Woodland
Paul Casey
Brendon Todd
Corey Conners
Dylan Fritelli
Adam Long
Sung Kang
Outright Bets and Odds
For the degenerate in all of us.
Pick to Win- Justin Thomas 5.5/1
Longshot to Win- Sebastian Munoz 66/1
First Round Leader Bets- Sung Kang 50/1, Adam Long 40/1, Brendon Todd 40/1
This is golf.
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