Tonight we are looking at a 6 game slate.
PITCHERS
Jose BerriosĀ
Berrios and Giolito are the 2 highest priced arms and face off against each other. They have both pitched well most of the year. This is a better matchup for Berrios, so I lean towards him tonight. The White Sox have struck out at a 27% clip and are hitting at a .243 average against RHP over the last 30 days.
VALUE ARMs
Brett Anderson
On a 6 game slate with limited options at pitcher Anderson stands out as he usually goes 6 innings and gives up limited runs.Ā He is an elite ground ball pitcher keeping the ball on the ground at a 70% clip vs LHHs and 50% vs RHHs. On the year Anderson has limited both right and left handed hitter in average, wOBA and HRs. The Rangers have not hit well vs LHP on the year and over the past 30 days they are striking out at a 27% clip and hitting .225.
Wade LeBlanc
LeBlanc is a cheap option going against a bad team. The Tigers have struggled vs LHP on the year and over the past 30 days with a .233 average and 27% K rate.
*Berrios & LeBlanc
Anderon & LeBlanc with high price bats.
TEAM/S
LA Angels
Targeting the worst pitcher and staff tonight. The Os will start Jimmy Yacabonis and most likely put in Eshelman right after. Both pitchers are terrible. Yacabonis has been getting crushed by hitters from both sides of the plate- vL .429 wOBA, 3.8 HRs/9, vR .385 wOBA and 1.4 HRs/9 with a 40% HC. Eshelman is not much better – vL .392 wOBA 3.7 HRs/9 & vR .353 wOBA and 2.7 HRs/9. The Baltimore pitching staff has allowed the most HRs on the year and has the worst ERA. Ohtani is my favorite play on the Angels, but Trout & Upton are in good spots as well. Ā My favorite stack tonight. Dustin Garneau is a nice value option at C. The ball has been flying out in Angel stadium this year.
*Yankees/Red Sox
This is the game that will pick up the most attention tonight. Porcello vs Tanaka. Porcello has been pretty bad this year and the Yankees have beat up on him a few time soon already this year. On the other side Tanaka- Red Sox have hit well vs him.
Favorite Bats, but most in play.
Yankees- Hicks, Didi, Encanacion(hits well in Fenway).
Red Sox- Ā Benintendi, Ā Devers, Betts, Martinez
FAVORITE BATS
Aaron Hicks
Hicks is coming into this series with the Red Sox hitting the ball well. In his last 17 games he has 7 mutli-hit games and 6 HRs (3 HRs in his last 4 games). Tonight he gets to face Rick Porcello who has allowed 27 runs over his last 22 innings with 6 HRs in that time-frame. Porcello also struggles a bit more with hitters from the left side of the plate allowing a .299 average, 1.5 HRs/9 and a 46% FB rate. Hicks and Gregorious are the 2 Yankees s I have the most interest in.
Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani gets an excellent matchup tonight vs the bad Os pitching staff. Yacabonis and Eschelman have both been beat down by lefties. On the year Ohtani has close to a .400 wOBA and .260 ISO vs RHP. This is one of the better spots for the Angels and I expect Ohtani, Trout and Upton to lead the way tonight.
Few Other Options
**Olson/Chapman & Canha have a good matchup vs Jurado tonight. Canha has over a .300 ISO vs RHP and Chapman & Olson are around a .250 ISO. Jurado struggles more vs RHP.
*Dan Vogelbach vs a sup par pitcher. 2 multi HR games over last 5.
VALUE BATS
James McCann(C)-hits well vs Berrios 6-15 with 3 HRs.
Tom Murphy(C)
Hanser Alberto(2B/3B)
Tim Beckham(SS)
Austin Nola(1B)
Jacoby Jones(OF)
Kris Davis(OF) perfect matchup for a HR!
