PITCHERS
MAX – No need to even dig into this one. Max gets Tampa, at home, and they lose the DH. A lefty will probably still homer off him, but he has legitimate 15 strikeout upside today. He’s expensive, so it will definitely take some creativity to make it work. (Risk factor 2)
Kluber – He struggled the first time he faced Milwaukee on the road. But, this time he’s at home, against a Milwaukee team that’s batting just .194 and 3 HR in the last 10 days vs RHP. I don’t think he has as much upside as Max, but still in a very good spot. (Risk factor 2)
Stripling – He’s been an absolute strikeout monster his last 3 starts. He’s been good on the road with a 2.08 era and 29.9% k rate, as well as his 25% hard contact (16.9% in may) and 46% ground ball. Pittsburgh has been middle of the road recently against RHP, hitting at a .250 clip as a team. (Risk factor 4)
Musgrove – He gets yet another home start tonight where he’s posted a 0.64 era, giving up only 1 ER in 14 innings pitched. Now, LA has been hot BUT they also just had a series in COORS, against bad pitching. Musgrove has the talent to shut these guys down, and still priced down at 7,200 on FanDuel. (Risk factor 5)
Wright – WARNING DO NOT LOOK AT PVB HERE. One of my 3 wildcards tonight is knuckleballer Steven Wright. This is his first start tonight, but he’s been very good out of the pen in his last 4 appearances (9 IP 6 k’s). His hard contact is around 16% to both splits, and has induced over 50% of ground balls to either side. There’s really not much analysis to do here. If the knuckleball is dancing tonight, easy 6-8 k’s. If not, Detroit is playing pepper off the monster. (Risk factor 7)
Vargas – Ok, wildcard #2. This matchup looks extremely scary on paper, but this is one matchup we can look at PVB. As a team, Baltimore is hitting .193 (23-119) 1 home run, 4 XBH, 28 k’s and .257 slugging. Vargas frustrated a good team in Atlanta last start, BUT also on top of that Baltimore is coming into tonight hitting just .205 and ZERO HOME RUNS against LHP over the last 10 days. He’s risky but cheap. (Risk factor 7)
Eovaldi – Last wildcard is Nathan Eovaldi. He’s always had the talent to be a middle of the rotation arm, but injuries set him back. Washington is ice cold right now, hitting .195 over the past 6 games. Eovaldi didn’t allow a hit in 6 innings pitched against Oakland in his only start, but what’s good is his average fastball velocity was around 96.9 mph while going 70 pitches. I think he may get to 85 pitches tonight and does have some upside even at the 7K range. (Risk factor 7)
IF VILLANUEVA IS OUT, SEAN NEWCOMB IS THEN ONE OF MY TOP 3 ARMS TONIGHT.
FAVORITE STACKS
Cincy vs Freeland – I love Kyle Freeland, but I think he gets hit hard today. On the road Freeland owns a 4.17 era, with righties doing most of the damage. RHB are hitting .264 with 4 HR and just a 16% k rate. Suarez is the favorite here, followed by Duvall. You can add Scooter in as well considering his .377 average and 4 homers off Lefties. (Suarez – Duvall – Scooter – Peraza – Barnhart)
Cubs vs Eflin – he struggled on the road against lefties giving up a .300 average and 2 HR. On top of that he gives up a shade under 50% fly balls rate on the road. Lefty heavy line up and all in play. (happ – Zo – Rizzo – Schwarber- Heyward)
Cleveland vs Guerra – Guerra is more of an imposter this year. The popular word “regression” comes to mind looking at his numbers, especially on the road. A 50% hard contact, 44.8% fly ball rate, and 5 HR given up in May. Cleveland’s top 5 are hot and will expose Guerra tonight. (Top 5)
Angels vs Keller – Bullpen day for KC. Keller is good, so this is more after he’s done. Just guessing, I’d assume LA would see Oaks then Smith. Oaks has given up a .632 avg and 7 ER to lefties while Smith has given up a .267 avg and 4 Hr to righties. (1-9 in play here lefties first then righties)
Boston vs Lewicki – not much of a sample size this year, but on the road he owns an 11.25 era and .400 average. Lefties are hitting for average, with righties hitting 1 home run coming last year. (Again small sample size). (JBJ – Nunez – Holt – Moreland – Benni – Travis)
Oakland vs Moore – Matt Moore in Arlington, with 93+ degree weather. If he makes it out of the 3rd inning I’d be surprised. Both sides of the plate are beating the snot out of him, with lefties hitting a ridiculous .441 and 2 HR, while righties are hitting .320 with 4 HR. In May alone he’s given up a .371 avg and 5 HR. Could Olson go double dong again tonight??? (Semien – Olson – Lowrie – Chapman – Canha)
CHALK STACKS
Yankees
Baltimore
LOWER OWNED STACKS
KC righties
Colorado
NYM lefties
Seattle
ONE OFFS
Villanueva/Renfroe
Springer
Segura/Haniger
