This NFL write-up is a mix of Cash and GPP Plays. Because football is an event driven sport, we are simply looking for solid game scripts to produce good value with upside. Do not be afraid to identify the ‘chalk’ CORE players you cannot live without and then wrap them with your game theory plays each week in both cash and single-entry GPP’s. For MME contests I will get off the grain usually, but below is my core plays for Cash, Single-Entry GPP’s and core lineups.
Note, much like with baseball I don’t care much about what Vegas thinks or what the chalk is when considering matchups and what I think the game scripts will be.
TOP CORE GAMES
The games I like the most for exposure….
- Bills @ Falcons
- Eagles @ Chargers
- 49ers @ Cardinals
- Panthers @ Patriots
BOTTOM 3 GAMES / FADES
These are games that I am almost completely ignoring with the exception of eating one or two one off chalk plays as listed below. These are games I want the least or no exposure in.
- Jaguars @ Jets
- Bengals @ Browns – AJ Green only
- Giants @ Bucs – TE’s only
QUARTERBACKS
CORE PLAYS
- Matt Ryan — Matty Ice is my top overall projected QB this week but this isn’t a spot where I want only Matt Ryan and nothing else. There’s some good value guys which I will address below that for lineup construction make me go less than 100% on Ryan. That said, he’s going to be very low owned this week in what is my favorite game of the week. Ryan and Julio have yet to really go off and when we examine their schedule we can easily see why… The Falcons offense feasts on bad defenses at home in games where there’s no pressure on them. When the pressure builds, they pucker up (hence, years of choking)… Week 1 — @ Chicago … Week 2 — Huge hype opening stadium vs Packers … Week 3 — @ Detroit… Week 4? Home game at 1pm versus the Buffalo fricken Bills… Buffalo’s head coach is Sean McDermott who spent the last few years as the DC in Carolina who Ryan has TORCHED at home over the last few years. The personnel is different, but Buffalo also has yet to face an elite passing offense like this and Ryan should throw for 300+ and has 4 TD upside.
- Carson Palmer … The 49ers are coming into Arizona with 10 days rest where as the Cardinals are playing B2B after a MNF game. The good news for Arizona though is they’re home for the second straight game and the 49ers pass rush is weak. That means Palmer should have time to go deep against the 49ers and because Arizona CANNOT run the ball I think we see a HIGH volume from Palmer this week. Add in that I am in love with the 49ers offense and think Arizona’s defense is overated and this quickly becomes a fantastic game flow game. Palmer has compiled stats despite being bad looking and he should be great here again.
- Phil Rivers … Simple logic here. Eagles front 7 is solid. Eagles secondary is not. Rivers to Keenan Allen a million times in this game and pray he finally gets the yardage we know he is capable of putting up. I also like teams playing 2nd straight home game when the opposing team has to travel cross country which we get here.
OTHER EXPOSURES
- MATT STAFFORD … I love the way Stafford is playing and the tools he has in this offense. With Tate moving around he should get some exposure against non Rhodes coverage. Stafford is my favorite mili-maker type GPP pick this week.
- TYROD TAYLOR … He stinks but Buffalo is going to HAVE to keep the game close and someone besides McCoy will need to break off and make a big play. If you want to go Devonta Freeman then consider Taylor and McCoy on the other side.
RUNNING BACKS
CORE PLAYS
- SHADY McCOY … Favorite play of the year. McCoy is the perfect back to eat up the Falcons. They will focus on him and he is a little fragile so that’s why he won’t be on 100% of my lineups, but likely close to 80% (i.e. 4 out of 5). Bust a long one McCoy and we could see the biggest game from a RB all season here.
- CHRISTIAN McCAFFERY … The Panthers were forced to give CMC a ton of touches last week against the Saints after Benjamin went down, but they get Benjamin back this week. New England is known for taking away the other teams best player — but do you think they have the right tools to shutdown CMC? I do not and the Panthers should be playing from behind in this game which means a ton of chances for CMC in the passing game and now that we are four weeks into the season I think the playbook has evolved to where they have enough solid plays with him.
- EZEKIEL ELLIOT … Zeke is going to bear near the most popular RB this week and he checks all my Running Back boxes… a) Primary back, b) home favorite, c) coming off mediocre stretch, d) favorable opponent. The Zeke TD prop bet this week is a lock for Yes.
OTHER TOP EXPOSURES
- DEVONTA FREEMAN … Freeman at home is a plug and play.
- DALVIN COOK … I always have some Cook exposure, love this kid.
- LAMAR MILLER … He is insanely cheap value on DK this week at just 4500. He scores and vultures the Deshawn Watson owners.
SNEAKY
- WENDELL SMALLWOOD … With Sproles out we should see more of Smallwood in the Eagles passing game and I suspect they are trailing.
WIDE RECEIVERS
CORE PLAYS
- JULIO JONES … As you can tell I am 100% leaning the Ryan-Julio combination over the Freeman play for Atlanta. I think Julio is going to go off this week against the Buffalo defense which has nobody who can cover him and Sean McDermott didn’t exatly know how to stop him when he was in Carolina
- KEENAN ALLEN … PPR machine against a secondary who gives up a ton of easy yards and catches. Beckham torched the Eagles last week and Allen will do that this week.
- DEMARYIUS THOMAS … Not much to say other than you beat the Raiders through the air and DT is the guy who should eat against them.
- RISHARD MATTHEWS … Houston secondary has long been their weakness and Matthews is the perfectly priced #3 WR on a ton of my lineups this week. He will haul in a TD this week.
OTHER TOP EXPOSURES
- AJ GREEN … On the road again and against Cleveland means we get a ton more AJ Green volume.
- JJ NELSON … JJ will be on every one of my Palmer lineups.
- COOPER KUPP … Dallas secondary is sneaky bad.
- GOLDEN TATE … Part of the Stafford-Cook game stack in that MIN-DET game. Tate got robbed last week and gave the Vikings fits last year.
- BRANDIN COOKS … Have you seen Cooks career #’s vs Carolina? They cannot control him over the top. Cooks blows the lid off again this week.
TIGHT ENDS
CORE PLAYS
- EVAN ENGRAM … Maybe it’s an OLE Miss thing, but Eli clearly trusts Engram more than Brandon Marshall as his second option and he’s going to punch not one, but TWO TOUCHDOWNS this week.
- HUNTER HENRY … Zero targets in week 1 …. Seven targets for 7 catches and 80 yards in week 2…. Zero targets in week 3… There, you have been warned. He’s my second favorite guy this week.
- CHARLES CLAY … Atlanta will FIND a way to force Buffalo to go somewhere besides McCoy a few times and Clay is more trust worthy than Jordan Matthews.
DEFENSE
- SEATTLE … (FD Only) they will be popular on FanDuel at home vs Indy. I am fading in tournaments because of their price and cheaper alternatives I’m banking on.
- JACKSONVILLE … The Jets little run of being respectable is going to end. I don’t care that the Jags are flying back from London, I think they DESTROY the Jets like they did Flacco.
- CINCINNATI … The Bengals cant be this bad, can they? I think they lose again, but the defense shows up this week and doesn’t take the full blame.
KICKERS
- PHIL DAWSON
- MATT BRYANT
- BLAIR WALSH
- DAN BAILEY
FOUR GPP CORES OF FOUR
- Ryan – McCoy – Julio – Bryant
- Brady – McCoy McCaffery – Cooks
- Stafford – Cook – Tate – Rudolph
- Palmer – McCoy – Freeman – JJ Nelson
BOLD PREDICTIONS
- Giants win, 31-10
- Browns win on an Andy Dalton pick 6 in OT
- Shady McCoy 200 yards and 3 TD
- Bills win
- Miller and Matthews both score 1 TD in TEN/HOU game and thats all the touchdowns.
