2024 Texas Rangers Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

This 2024 Texas Rangers Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

The Rangers ended their six-year playoff drought with their first World Series title in the team’s 63-year history (52nd playing in Texas). They only have eight other trips to the postseason, two of which ended with losses in the championship series. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Texas Rangers Preview projects the defending champs will face mounting challenges in attempting to repeat.

Surprisingly, Texas ranked poorly in ERA (4.28 – 18th). Their relievers picked up 31 wins, 34 losses, and 30 saves over 564.1 innings with 557 strikeouts and a 4.77 ERA (24th). The Rangers’ push to the top of the baseball world came from a third-place finish in runs (881), home runs (233), and RBIs (845). They had the second-best batting average (.263) while not being very active on the base paths (79 stolen bases on 98 attempts).

In the offseason, the Rangers signed RP David Robertson, RP Kirby Yates, and SP Tyler Mahle. They lost SP Jordan Montgomery, SP Martin Perez, RP Will Smith, RP Aroldis Chapman, and C Mitch Garver to free agency. 

Texas comes into this year with further questions with their starting rotation due to SP Jacob deGrom and SP Tyler Mahle having TJ surgeries last year. SP Max Scherzer comes off a herniated disc that was hopefully corrected last December. The Rangers expect him to mix the first two months of the year. Their bullpen has three arms with closing experience, but no one projects to be an elite option.

SS Corey Seager carried the team last year (American League and World Series MVP). Unfortunately, a lingering sports hernia required surgery in late January, putting him behind schedule for the start of the year. The Rangers have high hopes for two young bats – OF Evan Carter and OF Wyatt Langford that will add length and upside to their starting lineup.

Starting Lineup

 2B Marcus Semien

Four times over the past five years, Semien has been a top-tier player, supported by his rank (20th, 7th, 15th, and 11th) by FPGscore (2019 – 5.36, 2021 – 7.61, 2022 – 6.31, and 2023 – 6.52) for hitters. A significant part of his best seasons came from leading the American League in plate appearances (2019 – 747, 2021 – 724, 2022 – 724, and 2023 – 753) and games (162, 162, 161, and 162).

In 2022, his bat had minimal impact over his first 200 at-bats (.190/23/2/18/7). Semien played well over the final four months (.274 with 78 runs, 24 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 18 steals over 457 at-bats). 

Last year, he delivered his highest production in April (.268/25/5/23/4 over 112 at-bats) and September (.282/23/9/19/1 over 117 at-bats). His RBI rate (20) was the best of his career, with repeated value in his average hit rate (1.730). Semien posted a four-year low in his strikeout rate (14.6) while beating his career average in his walk rate (9.6). His bat had more value in batting average (.283), but he had three home runs and 17 RBIs over 187 at-bats.

His quest for more home runs came via a high fly-ball rate (46.6, 48.1, 47.2, and 46.5) over the previous four seasons and a high launch angle (19.1 – 38th). In addition, his exit velocity (88.4 – 239th) and hard-hit rate (37.0 – 265th) ranked poorly. 

Fantasy Outlook: Semien comes to the ballpark ready to play every day. His counting stats create an edge while his swing path overcomes some of his shortfalls in bat speed metrics to help his floor in home runs. He comes off the board as the 23rd batter in early February based on his ADP (29) in the high-stakes market. Semien beat expectations last year, and the Rangers’ overall lineup appears to have more depth in 2024. This tune has a winning beat, but top-charting hits can’t spin forever…

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