2024 Houston Texans Fantasy Preview The 2023 Houston Texans were projected to win the fewest games in the AFC, but a strange thing happened on their way to the AFC South basement. In one offseason, the franchise hired the right […]
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Week 15 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Deebo Samuel (34.00) led last week in fantasy points after taking home the runner-up prize the previous week (35.80). Drake London (29.20) posted his best game of the season to finish second, followed by […]
Week 15 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Deebo Samuel (34.00) led last week in fantasy points after taking home the runner-up prize the previous week (35.80). Drake London (29.20) posted his best game of the season to finish second, followed by D.J. Moore (26.80) and Cooper Kupp (25.50). Only four other wideouts scored 20.00 fantasy points or more. Eight of the top 10 wide receivers for the week ranked outside the top 20 in scoring in PPR formats coming into Week 14. Here are the best five players by scoring average after 14 weeks:
Tyreek Hill (24.93)
CeeDee Lamb (21.90)
Keenan Allen (21.57)
A.J. Brown (19.75)
Ja’Marr Chase (18.49)
Also, before we get into the Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out theQB Report andRB Report
Elite Option
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,200)
Over his last five games at home, Lamb had 45 catches for 605 yards and seven touchdowns on 64 targets, highlighted by his play in Week 8 (12/170/2), Week 10 (11/165/2), and Week 13 (12/146/1). He has a touchdown in five straight games (six totals). He is on pace to catch 126 passes for 1,748 yards and 12 touchdowns on 171 targets.
Buffalo sits 13th vs. wideouts (156/1,741/12 on 224 targets), with only two teams (JAC – 20/223/1 and CIN – 16/216) gaining more than 200 yards. CB Taron Johnson (42/364/3 on 53 targets per PFF) handles most of the Bills’ coverage out of the slots, where Lamb lines up on about 60% of his snaps.
The Cowboys’ top wide receiver has been tremendous over his last eight games. Lamb’s matchup isn’t ideal. But he should have an edge over all of the Bills’ cornerbacks. His salary is now top-shelf, requiring almost 37.00 fantasy points to be in the DFS mix in Week 15. Finally, this matchup has a chance of rain with temperatures in the high 40s.
Second-Tier Options
Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,200)
Kupp played better in Week 13 (6/39/1), followed by an elite outcome the following game (8/115/1) vs. the Ravens. From Week 7…
WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a […]
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8
We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a win would go a long way toward improving the postseason hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.
Speaking of the Bills, sitting at a mediocre 4-3 is new territory for Sean McDermott’s squad. Despite being an AFC-best +80 in points differential, Buffalo’s defense has fallen off. Also, the Bills sit at 0-2 on the road against their AFC East rivals. Returning home to Highmark Stadium in primetime could be just what the doctor ordered.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exceeded most expectations, even after a second consecutive home loss. The biggest problem for Todd Bowles’s team appears to be offense. After scoring 20-plus in three games to open the season 3-1, Tampa has one touchdown in their last two outings.
That’s not going to cut it against a Buffalo team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring.
Therefore, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total slipped by one point to 42.5.
Matchup
TEAM
OFFENSE
PASS
RUSH
YDS/PLAY
POINTS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26
15
29
22
26
Buffalo Bills
5
6
14
4
3
Both teams are far better at passing than running. However, the Bills have a distinct advantage in scoring, big plays, and efficiency. It’s on the other side of the ball where these two are much more evenly matched.
Tampa Bay ranks 11th in defense and sixth in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Bills have slipped to 22nd in defense but rank fifth in points surrendered. That explains the modest total for this game.
For the Buccaneers to pull the upset, they’ll have to step up offensively. Tampa has mustered a -13.83 expected points differential during their current two-game slide. That’s not the way to challenge a powerful Buffalo team that has won 15 of their last 18 home games.
The Bills have lost two of their last three games. Turnovers have played a big part in that, with Buffalo having two giveaways in each of their last three contests. Cleaning the mistakes and special teams’ gaffs is paramount for McDermott and company to keep the Bills in AFC East contention.
However, it’s hard to see Tampa winning this game without forcing those errors.
Tampa Bay Offense
The Bucs got off to a 3-1 start thanks to Baker Mayfield completing 70% of his passes and…
How will Thursday’s Buccaneers vs. Bills game go?
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2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]
2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championshipdynasty, redraft, or high-stakessquad, FullTime Fantasy memberswill have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Josh Allen
Over the past three seasons, Allen has been the best fantasy quarterback in the league. Allen has produced 15,180 combined yards with 129 touchdowns. On the negative side, his interceptions have risen each year in the NFL (5, 7, 8, 10, and 12). He gains a massive edge as a runner, highlighted by his last two seasons (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). Since arriving in the NFL, Allen has had 38 rushing scores in 77 games.
After a fast start over his first six games (33.12 FPPG in four-point passing TD leagues) in 2022, he scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in only two other contests (33.45 and 39.90) over his final 12 starts of the year. In Week 9, the Jets held him to 205 passing yards with no TDs via the air. Allen also exited that game with an injured right elbow. Allen played through the issue with his regression shown in his passing yards (249.6 yards) and passing touchdowns (1.9) per game over his final 10 starts.
Buffalo still needs to develop their secondary receiving options behind Stefon Diggs (108/1,429/11 on 154 targets). This is something Allen needs to reach a higher ceiling in passing production. The addition of TE Dalton Kincaid should be a big win for the Bills’ passing game. Gabe Davis (48/836/7) must improve his catch rate (51.6 – 54.1 in his career). Also, Davis needs to eliminate drops (16 over the past two seasons) to reach a competitive WR2 status.
Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Allen ranks second behind Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Despite the appearance of greatness, his yards per pass attempt (7.4 over the past three seasons) have yet to reach an elite area. He gains plusses for his ability to run and score on the ground, along with having an elite WR1. This combination puts Allen in an elite fantasy area while potentially having another gear if the Bills’ young tight end hits the ground running and their WR2 and WR3 increase their production. With a floor of 5,000 combined yards and 40 touchdowns, he projections to be another edge in 2023. Next step: 5,400 yards and 45 scores.
Other Options: Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley
— Running Backs —
The Bills running backs finished with their most production since Josh Allen’s arrival. They set three-year highs in rushing yards (1,470), yards per rush (4.9), catches (79), split percentage (21.9), receiving yards (609), yards per catch (7.7), and targets (113) while also playing one fewer game than 2021. If Josh Allen can continue incorporating his backs in the passing game, it will allow him to extend more drives and increase his chances of producing more yards and touchdowns.
James Cook
Cook saw minimal playing time over his first three seasons in college (1,221 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 40 catches). In 2021, Georgia gave him 140 touches, leading to 1,012 combined yards with 11 scores and 27 catches. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry and 10.9 yards per catch in college.
Cook is the younger brother of Dalvin Cook but has a sleeker build (5’11” and 199 lbs.). He brings explosive speed and upside in the passing game. His challenge to get on the field on passing downs comes from his questionable value in pass protection.
In his rookie season, Cook gained 687 combined yards with three touchdowns and 21 catches on 110 touches. He finished 44th in running back scoring (106.70) in PPR formats, averaging 0.97 fantasy points per touch. His only playable fantasy games came in Week 13 (105 combined yards with six catches on 20 chances) and Week 16 (11/99/1 and one catch for nine yards). Buffalo had Cook on the field for 25.6% of their snaps last season.
Fantasy Outlook: I love the explosiveness and upside of Cook in the Bills’ offense. But his scoring output will be limited until he works his way into more touches. If healthy, Damien Harris should see the bulk of carries on early downs and at the goal line. Harris also offers closing value in the fourth quarter in tight games. Cook must hold off Nyheim Hines in the passing game to secure a 50-catch opportunity.
I expect Buffalo to get Cook between eight and 10 touches per game in 2023. That puts him on a path to gain 1,000 combined yards with 40+ catches and between five and seven TDs. His ADP (89) since April 1st in the Fantasy Football World Championship ranks him as the 29th running back selected. For reference, that running ranking scored 9.49 FPPG in PPR leagues in 2022. I expect him to outperform his current draft value.
Damien Harris
After an excellent season in 2021 (1,061 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 18 catches), Harris lost his way and opportunity last year after a Week 5 hamstring against the Lions. His season started with 53 rushes for 246 yards, three touchdowns, and seven catches for 29 yards (52.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues). Harris only touched the ball four times vs. Detroit. This was followed by minimal chances (49/205 and nine catches for 67 yards) over the next 12 matchups. Over this span, he missed six games due to hamstring, illness, and thigh issues.
With New England, Harris ran the ball more than 65% of the time inside, gaining over 2.5 yards per rush after contact. When at his best in 2021, he gained more than 100 yards in five games (23/100, 18/101/1, 14/106/2, 10/111/1, and 18/103/3), with two coming against the Bills and four at home. On the downside, Harris finished with 40 rushing yards or fewer in six starts. He only had 40 catches for 281 yards and one score in his 36 career games.
Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two seasons…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BILLS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
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