2024 Minnesota Twins Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world  and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

This 2024 Minnesota Twins Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

Over the past 22 seasons, Minnesota won the AL Central Division nine times, leading to 10 trips to the postseason. They have three World Series titles (1924, 1987, and 1991). FullTime Fantasy‘s 2024 Minnesota Twins Preview takes a deep dive into the fantasy baseball prospects for the Twins this season. 

The Twins finished sixth in ERA (3.87) but a much lower ranking for their bullpen (3.95 ERA – 15th). Their relievers had 38 wins, 30 losses, and 38 saves over 556.1 innings with 590 strikeouts. Minnesota scored 778 runs (10th), hit 233 home runs (3rd), and drove in 745 runs (10th). They stole 86 bases on 104 attempts (82.7%).

Minnesota’s only free agent signing was RP Josh Staumont, who had Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in the offseason. They parted ways with SP Sonny Gray, SP Tyler Mahle, SP Kenta Maeda, OF Joey Gallo, OF Michael Taylor, RP Emilio Pagan, and RP Dylan Floro.

The development of 3B Royce Lewis, 2B Edouard Julien, and OF Matt Wallner gives the Twins hope that their offense can improve this year. A healthy and successful season out of OF Byron Buxton would be a helpful surprise. 

Their starting rotation had a new look, with SP Chris Paddack and SP Louie Varland expected to earn full-time jobs. Minnesota needs SP Joe Ryan to bounce back from a down season, and are Pablo Lopez and SP Bailey Ober truly trusted front-end arms? RP Jhoan Duran looks poised to push his way up the closing ranks. 

Starting Lineup

2B Edouard Julien

Over three seasons in the minors, Julien hit .285 with 199 runs, 40 RBIs, and 56 stolen bases over 927 at-bats. His bat shined in 2022 at AA over 400 at-bats (.300/77/17/67/19). The Twins gave him 38 games of experience last year at AAA, leading a .293 batting average with 29 runs, five home runs, 22 RBIs, and three steals over 133 at-bats.

With the Twins, Julien maintained an elite walk rate (15.7 – 20.1 in the minors), but he looked overmatched at the plate on many days based on his strikeout rate (31.4 – 26.1 in the minors). He offsets his potential batting average risk with an exceptional contact batting average (over .400 in each season in pro ball). On the downside, Minnesota gave Julien only limited at-bats (46) vs. lefties (.196 with no home runs and 16 strikeouts). Last year at AAA, he hit .266 against left-handed pitching with three home runs and eight RBIs over 79 at-bats (.210 in 2022). 

His exit velocity (89.5) and hard-hit rate (44.9) ranked outside the top 100 players in baseball. Julien had a flyball rate below 30% at AA, AAA, and the majors. His weakness in launch angle (8.0) led to a rising groundball rate (50.2) with the Twins. When putting the ball in the air, Julien showed the ability to drive the ball based on his HR/FB rate (31.4) with Minnesota (19.2 at AAA, 24.6 at AA, and 22.1 at A).

Fantasy Outlook: Against right-handed pitching, the Twins should have Julien in the lineup every day. His role vs. lefties looks limited, and he must get his strikeouts under control to develop into a more impactful bat. Julien showed more speed earlier in his career, giving him a chance to help in that category in 2024. His ADP (211) ranks him 17th at second base in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Torn, as his high walk total and off days vs. lefties suggest fewer than 500 at-bats. Even so, his runs will help a fantasy team. I’ll set his bar at .255 with 85 runs, 20 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 10 steals.

1B Alex Kirilloff…

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