2024 Milwaukee Brewers Preview
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Milwaukee Brewers preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 Milwaukee Brewers Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
Over the past six seasons, the Brewers made the postseason five times with three NL Central titles. Milwaukee reached the playoffs only four other times from 1969 to 2017. Their only trip to the World Series came in 1982.
The Brewers led the majors in ERA (3.71) while finishing second in bullpen ERA (3.40). Their relievers had 38 wins, 25 losses, and 46 saves over 565.2 innings with 579 strikeouts. They scored 728 runs (17th), hit 165 home runs (24th), and drove in 696 runs (18th). Milwaukee stole 129 bases on 158 attempts (81.6%).
In the offseason, they traded SP Corbin Burnes to the Orioles for SP DL Hall and 2B Joey Ortiz. The Brewers picked up 1B Jake Bauers in a minor deal with the Yankees for OF Jace Avina and OF Brian Sanchez. Milwaukee signed 1B Rhys Hopkins, C Gary Sanchez, SP Jakob Junis, and SP Joe Ross. They lost 1B Carlos Santana, OF Jesse Winker, SP Brandon Woodruff, 3B Brian Anderson, SP Eric Lauer, 1B Luke Voit, 1B Rowdy Tellez, and RP Andrew Chafin to free agency.
Their starting rotation is in rebuild mode after losing their top two arms last year, pointing to below-league-average success in 2024. The ninth inning should be in good hands with CL Devin Williams.
Milwaukee lacks a true star offensively. Their success requires their five young players to deliver competitive at-bats. I don’t see a winning team in 2024.
Starting Lineup
OF Christian Yelich
After his impact season in 2019 (.329/100/44/97/30 over 489 at-bats), Yelich hit .243 over 1,174 at-bats with 208 runs, 35 home runs, 130 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases over the following three years.
Despite his perceived weaker output in 2022, he finished 46th in FPGscore (2.35), thanks to his value in runs (1.71) and steals (1.92). Yelich only hit .207 over 213 at-bats with 32 runs, four home runs, 22 RBIs, and six steals when batting fourth. He battled a minor back issue in July and September.
Last year, Yelich had rebound in his game, leading to three-year highs in runs (106), home runs (19), RBIs (76), and stolen bases (28). His bat had the most success from May through July, leading to a .314 batting average with 54 runs, 13 home runs, 48 RBIs, and 17 steals over 290 at-bats. A back injury cost him some playing time in September, paired with a down final 157 at-bats (30 runs, three home runs, 17 RBIs, and six stolen bases). His contact batting average (.373) improved for four consecutive seasons while delivering a winning RBI rate (19).
Yelich finished with a rebound in his strikeout rate (22.2). He continues to have strength in his walk rate (12.3). His bat did lose value against left-handed pitching (.235 with three home runs and 11 RBIs over 145 at-bats).
His swing path continues to deliver a tremendous number of ground balls (57.3% – 55.9 in his career), but he had a spike in his HR/FB rate (20.2 – 14.7 in 2022 ~ over 32.0% from 2019 to 2020). Yelich did maintain a high exit velocity (91.7 – 44th) and hard-hit rate (50.1 – 25th), and worm-killing launch angle (3.5 – 395th).
Fantasy Outlook: Yelich was the 22nd-ranked hitter by FPGscore (4.35) last season. His ADP (82 – 46th batter) is well below last year’s success but aligned with 2022. Based on his price point, he already had a value feel, even with some regression in his stats. I trust his uptick in speed more than his power. In addition, Milwaukee doesn’t project to be a high-powered offense. A steady puzzle piece with the talent to be better with an improved swing path…
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