2023 Denver Broncos Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Denver Broncos Outlook.

— Offense —

Even with another losing season, the Broncos played well enough on defense to run the ball more than 26 times a game. They threw 56.3% of the time while ranking 20th in combined yards (5,942). Sean Payton has a history of having one of the best offenses in the league, giving Denver a chance to be much improved in all areas in 2023.

— Quarterback —

Russell Wilson

Over 10 seasons with the Seahawks, Wilson went 104-53-1 with eight trips to the postseason (9-7 with a Super Bowl win and loss). His completion rate (65.0) and yards per passing attempt (7.8) graded well, but he has never played behind a stellar offensive line (361 sacks from 2013 to 2020, with a low of 41 sacks in 2016).

From 2017 and 2020, Wilson delivered 150 passing touchdowns (eight on the ground) with 36 interceptions. In 2021, he missed games (3) for the first time in his career due to a broken right middle finger. Wilson finished with a career-low in rushing production (43/183/2) while being on pace to pass for 3,780 yards and 30 scores. 

Wilson finished his first season in Denver with a career-low in his completion rate (60.5) and passing touchdowns (16). Opposing defenses sacked him 55 times, earning him the league high for the season time in four years. He only passed for more than 300 yards in Week 1 (340/1). In 12 of his 15 starts, Wilson delivered one passing touchdown or fewer, ranking 15th in fantasy points (274.00) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. 

Fantasy Outlook: The new coaching staff for the Broncos is going to air out the ball in 2023. From 2006 to 2020, Drew Brees averaged 38.3 passes per game, with a low 32.5 in 2020 at age 41. Their offense featured the running back position in the passing game, pointing much more completion by Wilson. I expect a career-best in completions and passing yards, leading to a minimum of 4,700 combined yards and 30 touchdowns. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Wilson is the 17th-ranked quarterback. His price point has removed his risk, painting a high-reward QB2 in fantasy leagues. 

Other Options: Jarrett Stidham, Jarrett Guarantano, Ben DiNucci

— Running Backs —

The switch to Russell Wilson and a dismal pass-blocking offensive line led to the Broncos setting three-year highs in catches (96), receiving yards (751), targets (132), and yards per catch (7.8). Their running backs combined for 2,402 yards with 10 touchdowns and 96 catches (23.32 FPPG in PPR formats).

Javonte Williams

Coming into the NFL, Williams has a chain-mover feel while relying on his power and fight to finish off carries. He runs with a smooth rhythm while waiting for a hole to open. Once Williams sees daylight, his acceleration pushes into the second level of the defense. He won’t hit on many long touchdowns, but his short-area quickness plays well. Williams shows plenty of grit, and his style should wear defenses down. Despite a limited role as a receiver, he projects well in the passing game while having the smarts to pick up an NFL offense on all downs.

The Tarheels used Williams in a split role over the last two seasons, leading to 2,554 combined yards with 28 touchdowns and 42 catches. He played at the highest level in 2020 (1,445 combined yards with 22 touchdowns and 25 catches).

I sense some of Frank Gore’s traits in his game. Williams has a winning feel, and I expect him to do the dirty work in the run game. He’ll bring punch after punch on his runs, leading to productive showings on most days.

In his first season with Denver, Williams gained 1,219 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 43 catches. He finished 17th in running back scoring (206.30) in PPR leagues. His best value came from Week 12 to Week 14 (372 combined yards with four touchdowns and 10 catches). Williams gained more than 100 yards in one other matchup (17/111). On the downside, he scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in eight games (5.50, 8.40, 8.90, 9.80, 6.80, 6.80, 6.80, 6.90, 4.20, and 8.40).

Williams left Week 4 last season after 23 snaps due to torn ACL in his right knee. He gained 280 yards with 16 catches on 63 touches over his four starts. 

Fantasy Outlook: With 11 months to recover, Williams should be ready for Week 1, but that news will trickle in over the summer. In May, he ranked as the 27th running back drafted in the high-stakes market, with one drafter willing to take him late in the second round. Players coming off significant injuries tend to disappoint, highlighted by JK Dobbins year in 2022. Williams should be the Broncos’ top running back choice for touchdowns and catches, making him a value based on his current price point. I’ll set his bar at 1,400 combined yards (58% of their 2022 RB stats) with double-digit scores and 50+ catches, as long as there isn’t any negative news about his health over the summer. 

Samaje Perine

After kicking around the NFL for three seasons with minimal chances, Perine played well off the bench for Cincinnati over the past three seasons. He gained 1,409 combined yards with 11 touchdowns and 76 catches on 289 touches. Last year, the Bengals gave him a career-high 133 touches, leading to 681 yards with six touchdowns and 38 catches (RB36).

He proved more than worthy over three-game stretch midseason with starting snaps (30.20, 19.30, and 21.50 fantasy points in PPR formats). With Joe Mixon on the field, Perine only had two other games with more than 10 touches.

Fantasy Outlook: Perine’s growth and value in pass-catching should carve out…

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BRONCOS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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